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The key areas Oxford can expect to change under Manning

Liam Manning is the new Oxford head coach, and has been propelled directly into a relegation scrap as he prepares Oxford for a trip to fellow strugglers Morecambe. 

It is difficult to tell how much Manning can change the style of play this season as he look to make up the points to avoid an unexpected drop to League Two, but fans should be optimistic about a manager who was so successful at MK Dons just last season. 

He's already using exciting words like improving Oxford's counter pressing, transitions, and even floated the idea of actually playing a holding midfielder. 

Manning's approach at MK was well documented, and seemingly makes him a good fit for the ball playing philosophy Oxford at Oxford. But with results going stale, how might Manning look to shake up play at the Kassam? 

Looking back at his highly successful 2021-22 season at MK Dons, we draw a picture of some of the key areas Oxford fans can expect to change under the new boss. 

Slower Build-up

One of the key changes we are likely to see during Manning's tenure is a general slowing of Oxford's build up. 

Under Robinson, United were possession based, but always with a forward thinking approach, looking to progress the ball through the attacking lines at pace. 

This led to some scintillating attacking moves, but was also a cause for why Oxford often appeared so open when losing the ball. 

The faster pace you play at, the more likely you will be caught out of position when you lose it. 

This is likely to be an area Manning looks to deal with. 

Direct speed is the measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball forward in metres per second. At MK Dons last season, Manning's men had by far and away the slowest direct speed at 1.21, showing how they take more time in possession and progress more sedately up the pitch.

This was 0.28 seconds slower than Oxford registered that year, and 0.37 seconds slower than the U's tally this time round. 

This slower build up should allow Oxford to be better positioned to counter press when they lose it, and less likely to concede in transition. 

In basic terms, it is an approach more similar to Man City's slow build up than Liverpool's high pace game. They are both possession based systems, but the speed in which they play makes a huge difference to their ability to defend and attack in transition. 

The benefit this should have on Oxford's defensive game is clear. 

Last season, Oxford conceded the most goals from opta defined counterattacks in League One (6), making up over 10% of their total goals. Manning's MK Dons, meanwhile, only conceded three counterattacking goals, just 6.5% of their total goals against. 

By slowing the pace of Oxford's build up play, United should be positioned better to prevent quick transitions against them. 

This is likely to change the tempo of Oxford's own attacks, too, and we are less likely to see as many direct moves at goal.

Opta define Direct attacks as open play sequences which start in a team's own half and has over 50% forward movement throughout, ending with a shot or touch in the oppositions box. 

Last season, Oxford registered the joint third most direct attacks in the league (79), whilst MK Dons were 14th with 59. 

The slower pace of Oxford's game may also result in a less rigorous press. 

Oxford's passes per Defensive Action (PPDA, the average number of passes a team allows the opposition to make in the opposition's defensive third before an attempt to win the ball back is made) was the fourth lowest in League One last year (11.4), indicating they pressed high and hard. 

MK Dons registered a PPDA of 13.2, again putting them lower mid-table and showing how the speed of the game is likely to drop. 

Again, this could mean less transition attacks, but is likely to give Oxford more control over the tempo of their matches, and meaning they are less likely to be caught out of position when pressing to win the ball back.

Expect Oxford to continue monopolising possession, but the pace in which they build up and press will be much slower under Manning. 

More Possession in Wide Areas

This may sound surprising given Robinson's obsession with wingers, but Oxford can expect to have more control of the ball in wide areas under Manning. 

At MK Dons, he favoured a three at the back approach where the wing backs had the onus to create and build attacks. 

Although Robinson encourages width at Oxford, this often came in the form of explosive attackers running in behind. This was what led to the excellent goalscoring numbers registered by wide players like Fosu and Shodipo, whose movement was always going towards the goal. 

This will change slightly under Manning, who looked to keep possession in wide areas more and work the ball into the box, rather than using his wing backs to dart inside. 

Last season, Oxford's possession down the flanks (either side of the penalty area, stretching across the pitch) was 52.65%. This is above average, but dwarfed in comparison to MK Dons' 58.2%.




This is of course partly a product of MK Dons domination of possession, but does show that Manning prefers to keep possession in wide areas, whereas Robinson was more interested in getting wingers into the box. 

This again leads to slightly less quick attacks directly at goal, as shown by MK's shots generally coming from wider positions. 

Last season, no side had a lower proportion of shots from the middle vertical third of the pitch than MK Dons (60%). 

This is instructive of Robinson's desire to get his forward players running in behind and playing more narrow, often leaving space for the full backs out wide in the attacking third. Conversely, Manning will look to stretch the pitch, using the wide areas for possession, hence why they have more attempts from these wider regions than Oxford's narrow attackers. 

Less Crosses

Robinson may be the only manager who ever chooses to operate Sam Long as a bombarding full back, and it seems likely Long's crossing revolution might come to an end under Manning. 

Last season, Oxford averaged the sixth most crosses per game in League One (19), compared to MK Dons who were among the bottom clubs for this metric (14). 

This further illustrates the greater patience Oxford are likely to play with under Manning, choosing to maintain possession over getting the ball directly into the box.

This will mean a change in the style of goals Oxford are likely to score, moving away from hitting wingers at the back post and towards working the ball into the box. 

Oxford scored 17 goals from crosses last year. MK Dons netted just six. 

In fact, this marks a broader trend to playing less direct passes. 

Only Sheffield Wednesday (70) played less long balls than MK Dons last season (72), whilst Oxford were around mid-table (76). 

This should mean less aimless balls over the top which have come to typify games where teams sit back against Oxford this season, with more dynamic plans to break down teams with short passing. 

It is possible that these stats are distorted by the total possession football MK Dons have looked to operate since Russell Martin, but it is likely that we will see less crossing, and more short passes in general. 

As for when we might see these changes, it is very difficult to tell. Manning's first priority will be getting Oxford scoring more than their conceding, and it is unlikely we will see him put his true stamp on the team until next season. 

It is also easy to forgot this is only his second EFL job, and the style we saw him play at Stadium MK might not be reflected completely at Oxford. 

Still, looking back at his time there, we can expect Oxford's play to become slower but more precise and able to deal with transitional moments, whilst the goalscoring wingers which characterized Robinson's teams may be a thing of the past. 

If it gets Oxford performing like the Dons were last season, then fans probably won't care how we're playing anyway. 

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