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Will Oxford stay up? Simulating the Relegation Battle

At what point does four games unbeaten under Manning become four games without a win? The former MK head coach has certainly stabilised United, who look better on the ball, more prepared in transition, and have stopped conceding from every shot they face (although Simon Eastwood's discovery of his inner prime Yashin may play some role in that).  The reality is, however, that United went from three points and two places above the drop zone before Manning arrived, to two points and one place since his four draws.  This is not to say things have declined under Manning. The nature of the fixtures and league meant things were always likely to get worse before they got better.  But whether in desperate hope or genuine belief, fans who thought the removal of Robinson would lead to an immediate escape from the dotted line were mistaken.  Oxford are in a serious relegation battle.  But if you'd rather skip the hassle of checking the scores each Saturday and desperately hope that United
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The key areas Oxford can expect to change under Manning

Liam Manning is the new Oxford head coach, and has been propelled directly into a relegation scrap as he prepares Oxford for a trip to fellow strugglers Morecambe.  It is difficult to tell how much Manning can change the style of play this season as he look to make up the points to avoid an unexpected drop to League Two, but fans should be optimistic about a manager who was so successful at MK Dons just last season.  He's already using exciting words like improving Oxford's counter pressing, transitions, and even floated the idea of actually playing a holding midfielder.  Manning's approach at MK was well documented, and seemingly makes him a good fit for the ball playing philosophy Oxford at Oxford. But with results going stale, how might Manning look to shake up play at the Kassam?  Looking back at his highly successful 2021-22 season at MK Dons, we draw a picture of some of the key areas Oxford fans can expect to change under the new boss.  Slower Build-up One of the key

John Mousinho: The Stats and Story of Oxford's Set Piece Revolution

If there is one positive to take from the 2-0 loss to Wycombe, it is that Oxford at least didn't concede their customary set piece goal to the Chairboys.  Oxford have been consistently good at defending set pieces and pose a major threat going forward, something which must be credited to the now departed John Mousinho.  The now Portsmouth manager had a growing influence on United's set plays, particularly corners, since he joined the club in 2017, and for the last three years or so, has been the main man in charge of Oxford's routines.  In this time, Oxford have looked more sturdy at the back and proved a real threat going forward.  Whilst this might not sound all that impressive for a League One outfit usually challenging near the top end of the division, it is a lot more than most previous United teams could claim to be.  In an interview with the Oxford Mail earlier in the season, Mousinho confirmed as much: "When I came to the club we weren't particularly good a

Oxford aren't unlucky going forward, they are just not good enough

Oxford's ten game unbeaten run came to an abrupt end at high flyers Ipswich Town, and fans may have been surprised at the lack of ground Oxford made in that unbeaten period.  During those two months without defeat, Oxford rose from 19th to 15th, as the constant accumulation of draws prevented Robinson's side from really rising the table.  In many of these games it felt as though United could have easily won the matches, perhaps with a bit more luck or better finishing.  This was certainly the case in the 0-0 draw against Sheffield Wednesday, when Murphy's missed penalty and Henry's late claim for miss of the year left United with a single point from a game they could have easily won.  Similarly, Accrington's long-range equaliser earnt them a point against the U's in a match where Oxford seemed relatively comfortable but couldn't add to their one goal advantage.  On both occasions, a goal for Oxford wouldn't have been completely unjust.  Yet the difficult

What has happened to Oxford's pressing?

Watching Oxford at points this season has been borderline painful.  Even when they have won, the tempo has been lethargic, and matches generally very closed and cagey.  In other words, Oxford's performances so far this season have been surprisingly un-Oxford in style, so to speak.  Karl Robinson could (and has) pointed to numerous reasons for this, stretching from injuries to new systems designed to be more defensively solid .  But United's slow tempo may come down to something which has been crucial but not always the most noticed over the last three seasons: pressing. From a sample size of just seven matches, we should be cautious of making sweeping statements, but their numbers when closing down their opponents have clearly dropped.  This is particularly surprising, and perhaps even worrying, given the sides Oxford have played this season. Five of the six teams they have faced are in the bottom half of the table, and four of those teams are in the bottom five of the division

The Early Season Trends: Separating the Fact and Fiction?

League One this year looks more competitive than ever before.  At least half of the teams in the division have genuine promotion aims this season, with the early highflyers Portsmouth and Ipswich hoping to fend off the chasing pack, whilst the likes of Barnsley, Oxford, MK Dons and Wycombe are all playing catch up after the opening six matches.  After such a small number of games, though, it is difficult to tell what is to be believed, and whether the League table in May will look anything like this.  Through the use of underlying data, we are going to attack the early season standings, and uncover which team's form seems to be fact, and which could be fiction.  In for the Long Run The table a few matches in can be misleading, but some sides look set to continue at their early season pace, including a few at the top of the standings.  Sheffield Wednesday are one side who have stood out from their early season form, sitting one point off the lead after six games.  No side have spent