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The Big Homecoming - what difference will it make?

It seems fitting that the last game without fans for Oxford was a nil-nil on a cold Tuesday night. 

But those are the kind of outings Oxford fans can look forward to from now on, with a maximum of 2,000 supporters being allowed back into matches after this week’s tie against Hull.

With this you can also expect to see a real momentum shift for all teams, with even a small number of fans still likely to make a big difference and there will probably be a return to the usual home advantage. 

Some sides have tried to combat the lack of fans by filling the seats with youth players and staff, notably in Oxford’s away matches at Fleetwood and Gillingham - and it worked for the Cod Army whose home advantage of +25% the second best in League One.

Though for the other teams in the division, there has been much less joy in these home games.

The gap between the average points per game at home and away is smaller than it has been for the last decade, with just 0.12 more points being gathered at home than away. That compares to an average of 0.35 over the ten seasons prior to that. 


Parking the bus everywhere? 

Some slightly less stylish teams have been accused of playing how they would in away matches when they are at home.

This is evident in the number of goals scored by the host sides, which is down to just 1.36 per game compared to the average of nearly 1.5 in the ten seasons before this. The number of goals conceded at home has also gone down, teams able to play the percentage game more often without the pressure of impressing the home faithful. 

It is partly working for these sides with this year's home win percentage of 45% greater than nine of the last ten campaigns.

But the wins haven’t dried up for the away teams either, as they have triumphed in 35% of their matches, the highest out of the last ten seasons. 

It shows that there has been less fear from away teams to go and win the game leading to more excitement in proceedings, with away teams averaging 11.7 shots per game, far more than the 10.32 average of the last years.  

The gap between the number of shots from the home side and the number of shots from the away team is just over 0.5 per match and is by far the smallest gap in the last ten seasons.  

This attacking style is probably the reason for the increased home win percentage as well, with both teams simply trying to win every game – home or away – even if that means playing a less fashionable brand of football.  

The change in home and away advantages is exemplified by Portsmouth’s start to the season.

Kenny Jacket’s side did not lose a game at Fratton park last year but they have already lost three this season. Similarly they have picked up four wins in seven away trips after gaining only five wins in eighteen last year, illustrating the dramatic change brought by the lack of fans.

How did it effect Oxford?

It’s been a transformation for Portsmouth, but for Oxford, it seems to have made no difference at all.

They have played two less home games than away matches and in these games they have picked up marginally more points with 1.17 per match compared to 0.88 away from Grenoble Road.

But the truth is that though they have been better at home than away, they have still not been very good, averaging only 10.33 shots per game at the Kassam, well below the league average of 12.24. 

This coupled with their inability to finish their small number of chances means the return of fans needs to be a major turning point in the U’s season, as they desperately want them to start sucking the ball into the net as they have done in seasons gone by. 


With an even bigger disadvantage for travelling sides - home teams allowed 2000-4000 supporters whereas they are permitted none – we should expect to see a return to the more conservative approach taken by visiting teams before the Coronavirus struck.

But Oxford won’t care, after all they weren’t winning their away matches anyway, so the addition of fans to the Kassam should at least help one side of their game and lead to a few more goals at home - though they will suffer the other side of the coin if they throw in any more Swindon like second-half performances. 

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