Skip to main content

Oxford aren't unlucky going forward, they are just not good enough

Oxford's ten game unbeaten run came to an abrupt end at high flyers Ipswich Town, and fans may have been surprised at the lack of ground Oxford made in that unbeaten period. 

During those two months without defeat, Oxford rose from 19th to 15th, as the constant accumulation of draws prevented Robinson's side from really rising the table. 

In many of these games it felt as though United could have easily won the matches, perhaps with a bit more luck or better finishing. 

This was certainly the case in the 0-0 draw against Sheffield Wednesday, when Murphy's missed penalty and Henry's late claim for miss of the year left United with a single point from a game they could have easily won. 

Similarly, Accrington's long-range equaliser earnt them a point against the U's in a match where Oxford seemed relatively comfortable but couldn't add to their one goal advantage. 

On both occasions, a goal for Oxford wouldn't have been completely unjust. 

Yet the difficult truth is that for the most part this season, Oxford have not been unlucky going forward. They have simply not been good enough. 

Oxford have scored the tenth fewest open play goals in League One this season (15). For a side who scored the most and second most open play goals in the previous two seasons, this is a significant drop off and one which suggests bad fortune must have come into play. 


Oxford have also had the 6th most shots in League One this term (216), and are trailing only sides in the division's top eight for shots on goal. 


Only two League One sides have a lower goals per shot rate than Oxford (0.07), as United have failed to convert their shots into goals. 


However, digging deeper into the statistics shows that Oxford are not as unlucky as the high volume of shots would suggest. 

United have registered an open play Expected Goals (xG) of 14.76, the 14th best in the league. 

Not only does this illustrate United's large number of shots is not equivalent to good goalscoring opportunities, but also shows Oxford have not been unlucky in the number of goals they've scored this term. 

Oxford's 15 open play goals is actually 0.26 higher than their open play xG suggests they should have scored. 

If anything, Oxford are lucky to have scored as many as they have. 

A similar story can be seen in Oxford's set piece numbers. 

United have scored nine set piece goals (3rd most in the division) from a set play xG of just 6.47 (6th best in the league). 

Altogether, then, Oxford are outperforming their xG by 2.79 this season. Far from unlucky, Oxford are fortunate to have scored as many as they have. 


How, then, can Oxford be having so many shots but creating no good chances? 

The primary reason is that the positions Oxford are taking their shots from are simply not dangerous. 

No League One side have registered a higher percentage of shots from outside of the area than Oxford (48%), as United have relied on long range efforts to break down teams. 


This distance shooting has been a trademark of Oxford's game in recent seasons, but is not helping the Yellows to improve their goalscoring numbers. 

Oxford are also struggling to manufacture open shooting opportunities, as they are sometimes guilty of overplaying in certain areas and then rushing shots in others. 

Oxford have had 90 shots blocked this season, the fifth most in the league, illustrating their inability to create open shooting chances. 


There is also an explanation in Oxford's style of play this season, which has been too slow.

Opta define a 'Direct Attack' as any move ending in a shot or touch in the opposition box which starts in the team's own half and has at least 50% forward movement. Essentially, these are quick moves with strong forward thrust. 

Last season, Oxford had the joint third most 'Direct Attacks' in League One (79). This season, only three teams have had a lower number of direct attacks than Oxford (23). 


United aren't attacking with enough speed to break through teams, and are therefore getting stuck around the area and forced into long range shots. 

Similarly, Oxford's direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team moves forward in metres per second) is lower than either of United's previous two seasons at 1.44 m/s and the 11th slowest in League One. 

There is of course a more simple explanation regarding poor form from some of United's main attacking threats. 

Kyle Joseph, Billy Bodin and Cameron Brannagan are the only three United players to be performing above their xG targets (above 0.1 xG per game minimum). 

Whilst some of Oxford's top players have struggled to find their shooting boots, this has not led to a considerable dip in the output of the team. 

The problems United face going forward lie in the whole team. They are not attacking with enough pace and are often shooting from areas which do not have a high likelihood of goals. 

Oxford's gloomy attacking numbers are not a result of bad fortune. Oxford deserve to be where they are in terms of goals scored.

As we approach January, the challenge for Robinson is how does he address this. 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Oxford vs Swindon: Pre Match Stats Pack

Without fans, some games at the Kassam this season have been accused of feeling like an EFL Trophy match on a Tuesday night. Not this one though. This is Oxford United vs Swindon Town. The game that needs no introduction, but here’s one anyway.   It’s the first meeting between the rivals since February 2017 in a season where Swindon dropped to a lower division than Oxford for the first time since 1987. But times have certainly changed since that season when John Aldridge top scored for United, as Oxford haven’t lost a league match to their friends down the motorway for more than fifteen years.   They will come into this one in high spirits as well after finally putting some chances away in midweek, putting three past MK Dons to gain their second win of the season to take some pressure off a poor start. Its been the reverse for the Robins who have lost their last five matches in all competitions after what was a promising start to life back in the third tier. Swindo...

The 'Oxford way' wins through against brutish Northampton

An early Christmas present was offered to Oxford in the form of out of shape Northampton on Tuesday night. Four goals, three points and a clean sheet an almost perfect way for Karl Robinson’s men to head into the festive period. Although it was an injury and suspension-hit Northampton side, great credit does have to be given to Robinson’s men whose desire to stick to their game plan led to an emphatic second half performance.   With the Cobblers taking much of the pace out of the game in the first period, it looked as though Oxford would be sucked into a physical battle with Keith Curle's men – not a good sign when playing the team who have won the second most aerial duels in the division.   And this showed in the first 45, as Northampton dominated in most aerial statistics, stopping United getting any momentum in the game.  During the First Half A change in momentum United set about rectifying this in the second half, and the intensity of their passing and moveme...

Cheltenham provides a chance for underperforming Oxford to get amongst the goals

Oxford's start to this season has been extremely underwhelming, and tomorrow's match suddenly has much more riding on it than people would have expected when the fixture list came out.  Both Oxford and Cheltenham are on four points after five games, and the sides will be desperate to get their seasons off and running.  Cheltenham come off the back of their first victory of the season over Exeter, whilst Oxford haven't won in any of their last three matches and have lost both of their away matches this season.  A trip to Gloucestershire will not be simple, but Cheltenham's defensive record can give hope to an Oxford side who have underperformed in front of goal so far this season.  Cheltenham's open play expected goals against of 3 is the fifth lowest in League One, indicating that they are difficult to break down, but more encouraging is the 50 open play shots they conceded, the seventh most in the division.  This shows that Oxford will have opportunities to get...