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Oxford aren't unlucky going forward, they are just not good enough

Oxford's ten game unbeaten run came to an abrupt end at high flyers Ipswich Town, and fans may have been surprised at the lack of ground Oxford made in that unbeaten period. 

During those two months without defeat, Oxford rose from 19th to 15th, as the constant accumulation of draws prevented Robinson's side from really rising the table. 

In many of these games it felt as though United could have easily won the matches, perhaps with a bit more luck or better finishing. 

This was certainly the case in the 0-0 draw against Sheffield Wednesday, when Murphy's missed penalty and Henry's late claim for miss of the year left United with a single point from a game they could have easily won. 

Similarly, Accrington's long-range equaliser earnt them a point against the U's in a match where Oxford seemed relatively comfortable but couldn't add to their one goal advantage. 

On both occasions, a goal for Oxford wouldn't have been completely unjust. 

Yet the difficult truth is that for the most part this season, Oxford have not been unlucky going forward. They have simply not been good enough. 

Oxford have scored the tenth fewest open play goals in League One this season (15). For a side who scored the most and second most open play goals in the previous two seasons, this is a significant drop off and one which suggests bad fortune must have come into play. 


Oxford have also had the 6th most shots in League One this term (216), and are trailing only sides in the division's top eight for shots on goal. 


Only two League One sides have a lower goals per shot rate than Oxford (0.07), as United have failed to convert their shots into goals. 


However, digging deeper into the statistics shows that Oxford are not as unlucky as the high volume of shots would suggest. 

United have registered an open play Expected Goals (xG) of 14.76, the 14th best in the league. 

Not only does this illustrate United's large number of shots is not equivalent to good goalscoring opportunities, but also shows Oxford have not been unlucky in the number of goals they've scored this term. 

Oxford's 15 open play goals is actually 0.26 higher than their open play xG suggests they should have scored. 

If anything, Oxford are lucky to have scored as many as they have. 

A similar story can be seen in Oxford's set piece numbers. 

United have scored nine set piece goals (3rd most in the division) from a set play xG of just 6.47 (6th best in the league). 

Altogether, then, Oxford are outperforming their xG by 2.79 this season. Far from unlucky, Oxford are fortunate to have scored as many as they have. 


How, then, can Oxford be having so many shots but creating no good chances? 

The primary reason is that the positions Oxford are taking their shots from are simply not dangerous. 

No League One side have registered a higher percentage of shots from outside of the area than Oxford (48%), as United have relied on long range efforts to break down teams. 


This distance shooting has been a trademark of Oxford's game in recent seasons, but is not helping the Yellows to improve their goalscoring numbers. 

Oxford are also struggling to manufacture open shooting opportunities, as they are sometimes guilty of overplaying in certain areas and then rushing shots in others. 

Oxford have had 90 shots blocked this season, the fifth most in the league, illustrating their inability to create open shooting chances. 


There is also an explanation in Oxford's style of play this season, which has been too slow.

Opta define a 'Direct Attack' as any move ending in a shot or touch in the opposition box which starts in the team's own half and has at least 50% forward movement. Essentially, these are quick moves with strong forward thrust. 

Last season, Oxford had the joint third most 'Direct Attacks' in League One (79). This season, only three teams have had a lower number of direct attacks than Oxford (23). 


United aren't attacking with enough speed to break through teams, and are therefore getting stuck around the area and forced into long range shots. 

Similarly, Oxford's direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team moves forward in metres per second) is lower than either of United's previous two seasons at 1.44 m/s and the 11th slowest in League One. 

There is of course a more simple explanation regarding poor form from some of United's main attacking threats. 

Kyle Joseph, Billy Bodin and Cameron Brannagan are the only three United players to be performing above their xG targets (above 0.1 xG per game minimum). 

Whilst some of Oxford's top players have struggled to find their shooting boots, this has not led to a considerable dip in the output of the team. 

The problems United face going forward lie in the whole team. They are not attacking with enough pace and are often shooting from areas which do not have a high likelihood of goals. 

Oxford's gloomy attacking numbers are not a result of bad fortune. Oxford deserve to be where they are in terms of goals scored.

As we approach January, the challenge for Robinson is how does he address this. 

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