Generation Ox

Marcus McGuane first sustained what looked like an innocuous thigh injury back in January, an injury which eventually ruled him out for the season. Flat performances against Blackpool and Northampton have dearly lacked drive from midfield, and the defeat to Accrington could also be partly attributed to this. Brannagan is still struggling to impact games as he did last season, Gorrin doesn’t have the incisive passing necessary to break teams down , and both Sykes and Lee drift out of games too much to carry United’s creative burden. Robinson will be hopeful of getting McGuane back next season, but news of his extended absence this year has come at a bad time for Oxford. His absence is being felt particularly in recent performances, though in reality, they have needed him all season.      Dribbling, pace and power: What McGuane brings to the team From his underlying numbers, it is clear that McGuane is far more progressive than his midfield partners. He averages...

Oxford’s defeat to Blackpool was a tame affair. An improved second half performance was never going to be enough to turn over the 2-0 deficit needlessly conceded in the previous 45. Taking nothing away from Blackpool – whose press was reminiscent of United’s victory over Doncaster four days earlier – but Oxford didn’t do much to suggest they could ably play through the lines, particularly in the first half. Without the incisive passing that comes with a more progressive deep lying midfielder, Oxford simply couldn’t break through the Blackpool press. It begs a question which has been asked at a few points over the last two years; are Oxford better without Gorrin? The question was amplified given the impact of Gorrin's counterpart in Dougall of Blackpool. The bleached hair holding midfielder is impossible to miss and, along with scoring the opening goal, frequently found himself involved in Blackpool attacks. Playing in a double pivot gave him more of a licensce than Go...

In this most unusual of seasons, it is difficult to see what anything truly means. The playoff race is no different.   Teams are not just a few games behind others, but entire months late. Adding to this that the gap between 13 th and the final playoff spot in 6 th is only five points only reiterates it is still anyone’s game. It is enthralling but incredibly confusing. That’s why we have taken to the spreadsheets to predict – as accurately as possible – what this playoff race really looks, and whether Oxford have a realistic chance of getting into the coveted top six. How does it work? These predictions are based on each team’s underlying performance data. Using a side’s expected goals (xG) for and against (xGA), coupled with those of their opponents, we can get a reasonable picture of how many goals one side is expected to score and concede against a particular opponent. This is also adjusted to whether the side is playing them at home or away. This system h...

Losing to top of the league Hull City is no disaster. Oxford moved further from the playoffs but stay ninth and within touching distance of those above them. What is frustrating, though, is the predictability of how Oxford’s games are going at the moment. Robinson’s men are fast out of the traps, don’t score when they should and then usually concede soon after. Games against Doncaster, MK Dons and Hull followed this pattern, whilst Portsmouth and Wigan both scored after half time in periods of Oxford pressure. A trademark of Robinson’s Oxford in recent years has been starting quickly, with high tempo looking to score or even kill the game off within the opening exchanges. Only two League One teams scored more goals in the opening 30 minutes of games than Oxford (18) last season.  Of the 19 games they scored within the first half hour in all competitions, they won 14, losing only two. When narrowed down to the first 15 minutes – where Oxford scored goals in seven of th...

The role John Mousinho has played for Oxford this season would not have been quite what he expected. His desire to get into coaching is well documented, but playing as little as 110 minutes of league football this season was surely less than even he envisioned. However the work John Mousinho is doing behind the scenes is among the biggest step forwards in the club this year. Oxford have long had an issue with defending set-pieces and though last season saw a significant improvement, this year they have been notably better at both ends of the pitch. These set pieces can be crucial in deciding tight games, and its been a particularly useful habit this season. United have won six league games by one goal margins and have only lost three games by the odd goal – only Peterborough have as few of these defeats. Even if Oxford are losing, its not because of set pieces. Scrappy one goal wins are usually decided by a corner or free kick at this level.  Oxford winning twice as m...

The fact it to all of 97 minutes for Oxford to score against MK Dons was a minor miracle – although it made the celebrations considerably more jubilant. Despite admirable efforts from the Milton Keynes backline – throwing bodies and men in the way of most that was goal bound – it felt for large periods that they were trying to set Oxford up. Oxford were unable to accept these invitations.  Shodipo looked short of confidence by the end of the game and Barker struggled to get behind a side who had clearly singled him out after his extravagances against Ipswich. Taylor – though energetic and committed in his pressing – also struggled to cause too many headaches with shots on goal, and Elliot Lee was left too much to do at certain points. Russel Martin’s side are committed to playing a certain type of football, the goal they scored illustrated why. They threatened at other points during the first half but – largely – looked toothless when taking out Ethan Laird, who gave Ruff...