How badly have Oxford missed McGuane?

Marcus McGuane first sustained what looked like an innocuous thigh injury back in January, an injury which eventually ruled him out for the season.

Flat performances against Blackpool and Northampton have dearly lacked drive from midfield, and the defeat to Accrington could also be partly attributed to this.

Brannagan is still struggling to impact games as he did last season, Gorrin doesn’t have the incisive passing necessary to break teams down, and both Sykes and Lee drift out of games too much to carry United’s creative burden.

Robinson will be hopeful of getting McGuane back next season, but news of his extended absence this year has come at a bad time for Oxford.

His absence is being felt particularly in recent performances, though in reality, they have needed him all season.   

Dribbling, pace and power: What McGuane brings to the team

From his underlying numbers, it is clear that McGuane is far more progressive than his midfield partners.

He averages 1.3 take ons per 90, neared only by Elliot Lee with 1.1 out of Oxford’s attacking midfielders.

He completes on average 56% of these dribbles, only Brandon Barker (56.6%) has a higher success rate than McGuane of all Oxford players with over 5 completed dribbles.

McGuane’s ability to dribble through the middle is among the best in League One and illustrates why he is so important for getting Oxford up the pitch. 

Dribbles attempted per game from Centre Midfielders in League One 2020-21

McGuane’s ability to play in small and sharp bursts is a key attribute, and it is notable that he doesn’t need to be in the game all of the time.  

He has the lowest number of touches (45.5) and passes (26.1) out of all Oxford midfielders.

Yet most of his attacking work is done in the final third, at times playing in more of a number ten role and acting as a link between midfield and attack.

Oxford midfielder's 2020-21

McGuane averages 1.3 chances created per 90 and also gets into promising positions too with an average of 1.1 shots per match – though his lack of impact in the goals column is likely something he will be looking to address.

He doesn’t offer much defensively, with only 1.3 tackles and 1.4 fouls per game. Cameron Brannagan, often charged with filling the hole left by McGuane averages almost double on both counts.

The trio of McGuane-Gorrin-Kelly, though, had the perfect mix of defensive energy and attacking dynamism to allow Oxford and McGuane to shine.

McGuane is also far from a luxury player and he was vital in helping Oxford retain possession.

The former Arsenal and Barcelona man boasts a passing accuracy of 84.4%, bettered only by Brannagan in the Oxford team.

This composure on the ball, as well as acting as a link between attack and defence, has clearly been missed during recent weeks.

How have Oxford missed him?

For all the hype around McGuane in pre-season, his early season performances failed to reach the standards Oxford would have hoped.

The Nottingham Forest loanee grew into an important player, though, starting in eight consecutive league matches during the early stages of Oxford’s long unbeaten run.

Before that, McGuane had not played back-to-back league games all season, and was restricted largely to the bench or even the wing as Oxford languished down in 19^th.   

Avg PPG = Average Points per Game

Whether down entirely to McGuane or not, Oxford’s form clearly befitted from his sustained run in the team.

Even before Oxford’s long run of form, however, McGuane was helping the performances improve.

Matches before 1st December

Despite Oxford’s poor form, they amassed nine points from five games when McGuane started before the 1-1 draw with Ipswich that proved a volta in Oxford’s season.

This is a small sample size, yet patterns already emerge in Oxford’s greater attacking productivity with McGuane in the starting line-up.

Across all thirteen of McGuane’s league starts this season, Oxford have averaged 2.08 points per game, a stark contrast from the 1.13 averaged without him, and a tally which would see them top the league on points per game.

Oxford’s performances were also considerably stronger, scoring double the number of goals per game than they have without him and conceding less than a goal per game.

Interestingly though, the key statistics that have defined Robinson teams over the years are actually less strong with McGuane.

Oxford average less possession (52% with McGuane to 55% without), less passing accuracy (70% to 75%), and less shots per game (12.54 to 14.03).

Despite his individual quality, Oxford have spent more time on the ball and have built attacks more patiently without him.

Whether this is a good thing, though, is more debatable.

Without someone willing to take risks in order to get Oxford on the front foot, United have spent more time passing the ball backwards and sideways without much penetration, before going long earlier – as we saw to varying extents against Blackpool and Northampton.

This is a point evidenced as, like in the early games, despite averaging more shots, the average number of shots on target without McGuane drops to 4.52 from 5.13 with him.

Oxford’s conversion rate also rises to 15% with him compared to only 6% without him, indicating that without a dynamic option in midfield, Oxford struggle to break teams down and therefore take more speculative long range efforts.

Oxford failed to score only three times when McGuane started, a rate of less than one every four games, but did so eleven times without him, around one every two games.  

There are undoubtedly mitigating factors in these matches which mean McGuane does not take full responsibility, but it is obvious that both in the early season and during a strong mid spell, Oxford were far better with McGuane than without him, and his absence is particularly painful now.