Oxford can't win when they don't score early

Losing to top of the league Hull City is no disaster. Oxford moved further from the playoffs but stay ninth and within touching distance of those above them.

What is frustrating, though, is the predictability of how Oxford’s games are going at the moment.

Robinson’s men are fast out of the traps, don’t score when they should and then usually concede soon after.

Games against Doncaster, MK Dons and Hull followed this pattern, whilst Portsmouth and Wigan both scored after half time in periods of Oxford pressure.

A trademark of Robinson’s Oxford in recent years has been starting quickly, with high tempo looking to score or even kill the game off within the opening exchanges.

Only two League One teams scored more goals in the opening 30 minutes of games than Oxford (18) last season. 

Of the 19 games they scored within the first half hour in all competitions, they won 14, losing only two.

When narrowed down to the first 15 minutes – where Oxford scored goals in seven of their matches last year – they went on to win six and draw one of those games.

This illustrates it being a viable tactic, and the number of teams blown away by Oxford last season only emphasizes the point.

It is, however, heavily reliant on scoring during these periods.

This year, that has not always been the case. 

United have scored within the opening half hour in only 12 of their 43 league games this season. 

Unlike last season, only five league teams have scored less goals in the opening fifteen minutes of matches. 

When Oxford do this, Robinson’s men tend to go on to win the majority of their games.

Oxford have won nine of the twelve matches in which they have scored within the first 30 minutes this season, losing only one in normal time.

They have also won 75% of their matches when scoring in the opening 15 minutes.

As mentioned, though, Oxford have not always been able to score in these early exchanges.

Of the 31 matches which Oxford haven’t scored within half an hour this season, they have won only nine of them. 

Notably, four of those wins came during Oxford’s nine match winning run – perhaps a period where teams were not prepared for Oxford’s true potential as they were lingering near the depths of the table for much of the early season.

Since that winning run came to an end, they have won only one of the nine matches where they have not scored in the opening half hour.

Four of those subsequent nine matches ended in draws, suggesting it is becoming too easy to stifle Oxford when they don’t score early.

Gamesmanship has been used often throughout Oxford’s recent matches. It’s no surprise given their form.

What recent results show is that when teams are able to ride the early storm, Oxford are unable to pose too much of a threat as tempo and momentum drops later on in the game.

This was the case against Hull on Saturday, where United looked like scoring regularly within the opening exchanges but petered out later on.

Oxford recorded six shots in the first half, before adding only three in the second 45.

The first half saw Oxford play 72% of their passes forwards, but that figure stood at only 66% in the second period – remarkable figures given United were trailing for the entirety of the second half.

Oxford piled on early pressure and then conceded – though Hull’s goal wasn’t quite as against the run of play as the likes of Doncaster and MK Dons were – and failed to land a blow on Hull after that.

It is a familiar story.

If United want to sustain their playoff bid, then they need to find a way of winning even when they don’t score immediately.