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How to Beat Blackpool

The first leg of the play-off semi final is on Tuesday night, and Oxford will need to find a way of breaking down the League's best team over the last 40 matches. 

Since mid-August, Blackpool have picked up 76 points, conceding only 26 goals in the process, eight less than the next best defence and thirteen better than the next team. 

Since the turn of the year, Blackpool have won 16 of their 28 matches. 

How do Oxford, then, go about beating them? 

Here's a few key factors the data suggests Oxford will need in order to progress to Wembley. 

Score First 

When playing a defence as good as Blackpool, it is even more important than ever to score the first goal. 

Critchley's team have won 23 of the 30 matches where they have taken the lead, the third best win conversion rate in the division. 

Blackpool have also only conceded 21 goals in the second half of matches in League One this season, the least of any team in the division, and it is indicative of a side who tend not to concede once they have a foothold in the game. 

On the other hand, when Blackpool fall behind - which has happened 17 times this season - they have only claimed seven points, the third least in the division from losing positions. 


Oxford themselves have won 22 of the 26 matches when taking the lead this year, so will be confident of holding onto a lead if they can get it. 

What will also bring Oxford confidence is Blackpool's lack of clinical finishing. 

They have a chance conversion rate of 8.3%, which is the 7th worst in League One this year, and means they may struggle if they need to take the initiative and score. 

Don't Overcommit 

One danger Oxford could face is going all guns blazing too early on. 

As tempting as it is to attack ferociously at Blackpool from the start, commiting too many men forward could be dangerous and offers Blackpool their best chance of scoring. 

No side in League One have scored more Opta-defined counter attacking goals than Blackpool this season, with only Sunderland matching their total of five. 

Meanwhile, Oxford, though they are dangerous on the break themselves, have looked susceptible to counter attacking moves, and have struggled against teams that sit off and break against them. 

Keep the Front Two Quiet 

It is easier said than done, but previous results suggest that teams who keep the strikers quiet that have a much better chance of winning. 

Jerry Yates has 20 goals this season, the joint third most in the League, whilst Ellis Simms has recorded eight goals in 17 starts since he arrived on loan in January. 

Other than those two, Sullay Kaikai has seven, but has only scored five in his last 30 appearances. After that, there are only three other players who have scored more than two goals. 

Blackpool only have 14 goal scorers this season, which is the joint fourth least in League One. 

Blackpool midfielders have only scored five goals this season, the second least in League One, indicating that they are reliant on the strikers and set pieces (more on that later) for their goals. 

In terms of assists, Kaikai, who will likely play up front too or miss out if Critchley sticks to a 5-3-2 system he has operated recently, has eight, whilst Yates has ten. 

The next most assists have come from CJ Hamilton with and Elliot Embleton with just three a piece. 


Both in terms of goals and assists, Blackpool rely on their front two players, so keep them quiet, and - usually - Blackpool don't score too many. 

Don't Concede Unnecessary Fouls 

With Oxford old boy Luke Garbutt in the Blackpool line-up, they have a player with an excellent set piece delivery. 

He is in the top fifteen League One players for accurate free kicks and corners with 2.2 per 90 minutes. 

Blackpool are also in the top ten for aerial duels won per game in League One, with 23.8, indicating that they are extremely dangerous when the ball is crossed into the box. 

They have scored 15 goals from set pieces this season, which is a quarter of all their goals.

Oxford are at times culpable of giving away needless fouls, conceding 14.5 per game, which is the third most in League One. 

 

Given Blackpool's general lack of attacking threat, it would be wise to avoid offering needless opportunities for them to deliver the ball into the box. 

It undoubtedly going to be an extremely close tie, so it could be decided by these tightest of margins, and Oxford will need to make sure they stop some of these routes to goal. 

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