In the shape of Atkinson and Ruffels, Oxford have lost two bedrocks at the heart of their defence and will be requiring somewhat of a rebuild going into the next season.
Unlike following the departure of Curtis Nelson, there is no
Rob Dickie ready to wheel off the conveyor belt, nor is there a Rob Atkinson who
was ready for when Dickie left.
Hopes are high for 21-year-old Luke McNally, but he looks
set to be made to wait another year for his time to shine.
Instead, Oxford will need to delve into the transfer market for a replacement.
What are Radar Graphs?
In this article, we will be using a statistical profiling technique we call radar graphs. This is a method used to rank how often and/or effectively a player performs a particular action (e.g., dribbling) compared to other players from their position in the same league.
This data is then put in a radar graph, with each line representing a particular skill. The further out the line goes, the stronger they are at that action. This allows us to build a general profile on the skillset of a player. It sounds complicated, but it is pretty self explanatory once you get there.
What made Atkinson so good?
Oxford’s planning for this summer was likely thrown off course by the speed of Rob Atkinson's rise. They would dearly have hoped to keep the
22-year-old one more year, by which time their spinning conveyor belt of centre
back replacements may well have yielded an oven ready replacement, but in the
end the reported £1.6 million price tag was too much to resist.
Heralded the Vanarama Van Dijk from his time at Eastleigh,
his incisive dribbling and remarkable ball retention ability was what stood
out, but his defensive attributes also went somewhat under the radar, as his
statistical profile below shows.
There is no need for statistics to show his ball carrying ability, but he also profiles highly for many of the key defensive
actions.
Only two League One centre backs won more aerial duels per
game than Rob Atkinson (6.6) in League One last season.
Similarly, he was within the top twenty League One centre
backs for tackles, interceptions and clearances per game, often being Oxford’s
most prominent defender.
His profile shows him to be a front foot defender, contributing
highly to winning the ball back and propelling Oxford forward onto counterattacks.
This worked well in tandem with Elliot Moore, who favours a steady reading of the game.
Moore produces far fewer defensive actions per game, likely
because he chooses to sit off and mark the space rather than the man.
He is also a less proactive dribbler, and this contributes
to him having a far better ball retention ability than Atkinson, losing possession
on average 0.3 times per game compared to Atkinson’s 0.7.
The combination worked well – Moore as the passer who works
to keep possession, and Atkinson as the dribbler who took more risks to
progress Oxford up field.
What neither player profiles particularly well in is their ability to break lines with their passing. They rank 31st and 32nd respectively for key passes per game out of the 89 League One centre backs to have played 10 or more matches last year, indicating that they do not often set Oxford up on attacks from their passing out from the back. This a potential area to improve on when finding a replacement partner for Moore.
We have analysed, using advanced statistical profiling, a few of the players Oxford have been linked to this summer to see which ones would best fit Oxford's system.
William Boyle
25
Cheltenham
Newly promoted Cheltenham will have a tough job keeping hold of William Boyle, whose contract expires in just one year, after an excellent campaign in League two.
Sheffield Wednesday and Fleetwood are among the League One
clubs linked to the centre-back, who played 36 times across all competitions
last season, but Oxford could swoop in on the 25-year-old who offers a cut
price option.
He is more experienced than Atkinson, so would provide a solid
replacement for at least a season, by which time McNally may have grown into the
team.
Having played under an expansive Cheltenham side last year,
Boyle has all the on-ball traits needed to fit into Robinson’s system.
He is not as strong a dribbler as Atkinson, averaging 0.9
less per game, but is a skilful passer and adept at building from the back.
He averaged 48 passes per game last term, the 19th
most of all League Two centre backs, but is crucially a strong passer through
the lines. His 0.5 key passes per game was the eighth most in League Two last
term and means he is more skilled than both Atkinson and Moore at progressing
the ball forward, whether through short passing or long switches of play.
However, Boyle is right footed, but would likely still be
played on the left-hand side, perhaps prohibiting his passing ability.
Still, Boyle offers the on-ball characteristics that
Robinson requires of his centre backs, has experience to compliment the burgeoning
young talent at Oxford, and comes at an affordable price, making him a useful acquisition
for Oxford.
Jason Kerr
24
St Johnstone
The sheer lack of teams in the Scottish Premiership makes Kerr’s
skill set somewhat difficult to pin down using numbers.
Nevertheless, his statistical profile gives the impression that he is more in the mould of Moore than Atkinson.
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St Johnstone captain at just 24, Kerr is a player entering his prime, who also has potential sell on value.
Though he is right footed, he's sufficiently two footed to be able to play on the left, and is comfortable in possession.
St Johnstone do not look to overly play out from the back, hence
his low rating for passing quantity, but he is one of the best centre backs at progressively
passing the ball forward in the Scottish Premiership (0.5 key passes per game).
He is also an above average dribbler, and his low-ball
retention is likely a consequence of his willingness to take risks in order to
advance his team up the pitch.
It is this drive that has made him such a fans favourite, with him regularly overlapping from centre back when St Johnstone play a back three.
Although he generally does not engage in many defensive duels,
when he does, he is clearly strong, winning the third most tackles per game of
all centre backs in the Scottish Premiership.
Jack Tucker
21
Gillingham
Tucker is a young transfer option, but already offers a
wealth of experience at the tender age of 21, having played over 70 matches in
League One over four years at the club.
His potential is clear for all to see, with Portsmouth having
bids in excess of £200,000 rejected for his signature already this window.
However, there are now reports that Oxford could be in line
to prize away the 6”3 centre back.
He has enjoyed a strong season with the Gills, playing in
all but three of their League One fixtures last year.
Having played for Steve Evan’s Gillingham, however, it is no
surprise to see that his passing statistics are not all that impressive –
Gillingham averaged the least possession (43.2%), passes (275.8) and passing
accuracy (60.5%) in League One last year.
However, his strength lies in his defensive ability, possessing
the same art of stepping out of defence to stop opposition attacks and set his
own team away as Atkinson.
Of League One centre backs who have played at least 10
matches, only Wigan’s George Johnston has recorded more interceptions per game
than Tucker’s 2.7 (Atkinson averaged 2 per game and ranks eighth best in League
One for this metric).
He does not rush into challenges, however, and was dribbled
past less than once every three games last season, one of the better totals in
the division.
What may be of concern is his lack of aerial presence
despite his 6”3 stature. He wins only 3 aerial duels per game which is less
than half that of Atkinson and a lower total than Moore.
However, at just 21 he is a good long-term option for
Oxford, though he would not come cheap.
Liam Scale
22
Shamrock Rovers
There is not yet enough data to form a comprehensive profile
on Shamrock Rovers’ centre back Liam Scale, but he has been on the watchlist of
multiple League one and Two clubs this year and may fit the bill for Oxford.
United have history of going digging in the Irish league
where they have found the likes of Mark Sykes and Gavin Whyte, as well as Luke
McNally in January.
Scales may profile too similarly to McNally to become a
genuine target for Oxford, as it is likely neither would be ready to hold down
a starting spot from the start of the season.
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At 22, though, Scales offers another young option with potential
sell on value and is the only player on the scouting list to be left footed.
That element certainly works in his favour, as does his
positional versatility.
He actually played more games at left wing back last season in
the Irish Premier Division, where he scored and assisted two goals in eleven
appearances. He has also played as a conventional left back, a defensive
midfielder and at centre back for Shamrock Rovers.
His ability to play at left back is particularly useful
given the sale of Josh Ruffels to Huddersfield, and the lack of a replacement
as yet.
He is a front foot defender, and the five-time Ireland
under-21 defender could be another option for Oxford to bulk out their
defensive roster, even if he is not ready to start this season.
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