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Oxford are League One's form team, but now have to prove they can beat bigger sides

A match between the 9th and 6th placed sides in League One won’t be making the front pages this weekend. This clash of Oxford United and Ipswich Town, though, does hold considerable significance for United’s season, and could be a good benchmark for what level they are at.

Ipswich, a side whose huge squad turnover saw them pick up just seven points in their first eight league games, have been rising up the table in recent months, and now hover ominously above the playoff places having claimed 13 points in their last six games.

Only two sides have accumulated more points in the same period: Rotherham (14) and Oxford (15).

The test for Oxford, though, is very much still to come.

No side in League One this season have faced teams with a lower Points Per Game than Oxford (1.18), which essentially means no team have had an easier fixture list than Oxford this year. This number is also reflective of whether they play a team at home or away, and suggests that Oxford’s season can only get harder from here. 

Oxford have had the easiest set of fixtures this season

Its not to say Oxford have not played strong sides, but these often came under mitigating circumstances.

They beat Sheffield Wednesday, but Wednesday had only won one match in their five games prior to that meeting. They also beat Charlton, although they were in the relegation zone until the end of October.

They’ve played, and lost, to Plymouth and drawn to Wycombe.

Whilst United’s rise to the playoff places is impressive, and it would be difficult to argue unjustified given the nature of some of their performances, the match against Ipswich marks the start of a run which will be crucial in deciding how Oxford’s season goes.

In their next eight matches, Oxford play Ipswich, Wigan (twice), Rotherham, MK Dons and Portsmouth. It is a run which far outweighs the Morecambe, Burton, Shrewsbury, Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington they have played on their to becoming the form team of the division.

After all, no Oxford fan needs reminding of their miserable results against the top sides in the division last year.

Playing Ipswich will be a huge test for Robinson, and one which will be a great learning curve whatever the result.

No side in the league are in better relative form than Ipswich (+0.56) – which measures the Points Per Game collected in their last eight matches compared to their average for the rest of the season, and allows us to see how well they a team are playing relative to their league position. Right now, Ipswich are playing like a side well above 9th position in League One. 

Ipswich are performing considerably better than their league position in their last eight games

Equally, Oxford may struggle when faced with the style of play Ipswich employ.

Robinson’s men always like to keep the ball, but in Ipswich, they may have met their match.

Both sides average 56.4% possession in League One this season, the joint fourth most in the division, and Ipswich are particularly dominant at home, with 58.1% average possession at Portman Road. 

Oxford and Ipswich both like to keep possession

Oxford like to control proceedings, especially away from home where they average the third most possession of any team in League One (54.8%) and have been exceptional in matches away from the Kassam in recent weeks, after a slow start this season.

Only Accrington Stanley average more shots away from home (14.9) than Oxford (14.7) in League One this season, and their expected goals away from home is considerably higher than anybody else in the division (1.93).

Oxford, then, will be faced with a tough challenge against a side who will look to be more proactive than some of the teams they have faced recently, and will try to control the game themselves.

United certainly have the ability to beat Ipswich, or at least leave Portman Road with a point, which would be considered a very good result, but they need to prove that they can beat these teams if they wish to finish in the playoffs or higher this season.

In a division which contains so many big hitters, the equation is simple; they have to win matches against the sides around them.

Ipswich would be an excellent place to start. 

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