Oxford are on fire, but the real test is still to come

It has been a scintillating few months for Oxford, finally beating Fleetwood possibly the pinnacle of what's been a roller coaster journey.

The last time United lost a game was in late November, and sitting just four points off the play-offs, the picture has changed drastically from those early season struggles.

At the start of the campaign, it felt like nothing more could go wrong for Oxford, with injuries, COVID postponements and the woodwork's agenda against them all halting progress. 

Possibly the most prominent headache for Robinson, though, was an unrelenting fixture list.

Playing Lincoln, Sunderland, Charlton and Fleetwood within the first seven games of the season was always going to be a challenge.

Portsmouth, Ipswich, Hull and in-form Blackpool were to follow shortly, in what was a frightening early calendar.

Having lost to the first four opponents mentioned, Oxford then gained credible draws against the others. It remains, however, that Oxford failed to pick up a single win from those eight games.

Their results has improved markedly since then, but the correlation between the fixture list and United’s form has been obvious.   

None of Oxford’s opponents on route to their record-breaking winning streak have been in the top half of the table, and three of them were against sides in the relegation zone. 

Beating Rochdale and Northampton twice in a season isn’t going to see a team challenging close to the top.

It means that – though mightily impressive recently – Oxford’s real test will be claiming results in their upcoming games.

Four wins in a row makes Doncaster a difficult but fitting place to start.

Darren Moore’s men could go top if they win their games in hand, and having not played Oxford yet, it may be a landmark game for Robinson’s side in disproving the theory that Oxford’s form is down entirely to the easier matches. 

Oxford scored seven goals in the ten games they have played against top half clubs, an average of 0.7 goals per game. That is far less than the 2.31 they've averaged on their way to bagging thirty goals in thirteen matches against bottom half clubs.

A similar thing can be stated defensively too.

Of Oxford’s six league clean sheets this season, five have come against bottom half sides.

This, however, is where it doesn’t factor in external factors.

Though facing a blunt Bristol Rovers’ attack certainly helps defensively, the major cause in Oxford’s run of clean sheets has to be attributed to the introduction of Jack Stevens. Oxford’s sole clean sheet against a top half side – Ipswich in December – came in the first game after Steven’s was selected ahead of Eastwood.

Since then, Oxford have only played one other top half side and that was the then table-toppers Hull City.

It suggests that, though ineffective earlier this season, now Oxford have a more stable set-up, they will be better equipped to challenge the top half sides.

Less injuries should also help Oxford perform better this time round when playing the top sides.

Sam Long played almost every position earlier this season, whilst Hanson, Brannagan, Atkinson, Winnall and Gorrin all found themselves sidlined for considerable periods during Oxford’s run against the top teams.

Form was also not there the first time round.

Josh Ruffels would be the first to admit his performances were not quite at his usual standards earlier this season – four goals in three games has diminished any lingering fears of his struggles continuing.

Karl Robinson was unable to find the best position for Liam Kelly, who is now a vital cog in Oxford’s midfield works.

Henry also seems to have put a poor start behind him, whilst Shodipo has found a consistency that was present when he first arrived.

It all points towards Oxford being better suited to facing the top half sides now and suggests that – though not entirely – Oxford’s poor run against these teams was more circumstantial than anything else.

This, though, is something they will have to prove.

During Oxford’s last seven league wins, their opponents have averaged 1.03 points per game (adjusted to show home and away points per game). Oxford’s next eight challengers have an average points per game of 1.42.

That is clearly a sizable step up, but not impossible.

Oxford’s remaining fixture difficulty (again adjusted for whether they play a side at home or away) largely mirror those next eight matches.

It means that how Oxford perform in a run of games against a wide range of opponents in their next few matches may be indicative of what is to come.

They don’t need to beat all of the best teams in the League, but they must be able to at least challenge opponents right across the spectrum rather than just those in the bottom half.

United themselves have a points per game of 1.61 and can now consider themselves to be sitting as one of the better sides in the division.

But to earn that title consistently, you need to be able challenge the other teams around you.

Oxford look like a play-off chasing club, now they need to act like one, and it all starts against Doncaster on Saturday.