Despite the win against Rochdale, Oxford could find themselves back at the base of the table by the time they play their next league game with yet another postponed match this Saturday.
Nobody is claiming Oxford should be top of the league, but their league position certainly isn't being kind to them.
Though with no match on Saturday, it's a opportunity to look back at how the rest of the league is shaping up.
The disjointed fixture list means it is very difficult to
see who should be where, with some teams nearly a quarter of the way through
their season and poor old Accrington yet to reach the eight-game mark.
Accrington themselves enjoyed a strong start to the
campaign, and if we go off the points per game table, they would be five places
higher than they currently are.
In fact, based on everyone’s new favourite points per game method,
17 teams in League One would have new positions, with half of the table moving
at least two places up or down.
Early season overperformers
Ipswich Town (2nd)
One team to benefit from this fixture quirk is Ipswich Town. They would drop three places on the points per game table and this position may be more suiting to their performances so far this season.
Despite averaging the second most passes per game in the
league (460.6), their average of 7.3 key passes per match ranks 19th
in the division. For all their possession, there has not been as much
creativity as you would expect from the Tractor Boys.
Their lack of goalscoring threat is further shown by their
shot count, averaging just 10.5 per game, 14 teams have averaged more yet
Ipswich find themselves behind just one of them.
This would suggest that superior finishing has been the key for Paul Lambert’s men, backed up by the fact they are outperforming their expected goals by 0.25 per game.
And Ipswich fans may be wary of reading too much into the positive start due to what happened last season.
After 11 matches in the 2019-20 campaign, Ipswich were four points clear at the top of the table, having played less games than the majority of the other teams. By the end of the season though, they were sitting nine places lower and would drop out of the top ten on points per game.
Lincoln City (3rd)
Another side seemingly sitting in a position not in line
with their performances is the team hot on Ipswich's heels, Lincoln City.
The Imps beat Oxford on the opening day of the season and
have been on fire since. But there are some signs that Michael Appleton hasn’t
quite imposed his style of play on the side yet.
They have averaged just 47% possession so far this season,
the fifth lowest in the league, a complete shift from Appleton’s time at
Oxford.
They don't seem to be scaring sides
through their physical presence either, having won just 16.5 aerial duels per
game, also the fifth lowest in League One.
Fans cannot be blamed for wondering where their goals are
coming from and how they find themselves so far up the table, and, though team
spirit and good management may be the biggest factor, they are certainly being
helped by an incredible amount of penalties.
Lincoln’s five goals from the penalty spot this season is
the highest in League One, and two thirds of all their goals this season have
come from either spot kicks or set pieces. Only Hull have scored more goals from
set plays this season.
It means that though impressive, Lincoln have been reliant on getting and converting these chances, which is surely not a sustainable route to victory, and when those decisions start to run out, the fact that only Shrewsbury have scored less goals from open play than the Imps may become more of a problem.
AFC Wimbledon (11th)
Although it’s not just the top teams who find themselves outperforming
their numbers in the early season.
That AFC Wimbledon were tipped for relegation by many this season, makes a top half position even more
impressive.
However, the underlying numbers suggest that The Dons are still
destined for a fight for their survival.
Despite being three places closer to the top of the league,
they are actually four points nearer Wigan at the bottom of the table than Peterborough at the summit.
Wimbledon have averaged only 10.1 shots per game and no side
average less dribbles per game than Glynn Hodges’ side, possibly suggesting a slight
lack of creativity.
They seem to be very reliant on Joe Pigott at the moment,
who has been involved in ten of their fourteen goals. Only eight players have been involved in either a Wimbledon goal or assist this season, a very low number for the amount of goals they have scored so far.
Though having a player like Pigott is a massive boost at League One level, it’s difficult to see his hot streak lasting forever, and the stats suggest that this Wimbledon team have been dependent on his finishing, outperforming their xG by nearly 0.35.
Don't write them off:
Doncaster Rovers (9th)
Doncaster Rovers are usually knocking around a playoff spot,
and there is no reason to think this season will be different.
The departure of a few key players like Ben Sheaf in the
summer and their failure to truly replace John Marquis from the previous season
made many doubtful of Doncaster after an ordinary season last year.
While currently 9th,, their position does not truly reflect their performances. Only top of the league Peterborough have scored more goals per game than Donny, and they are good value for it as well, with an average of 14.1 shots per match bettered by only three sides.
In addition to this, only three sides have a larger average expected goals per game record.
Their performances have also been excellent, averaging the
third most passes per game and a passing accuracy bettered by only two teams in
League One.
There has been an end product during these passing moves as
well, with the joint second most goals from open play this season.
Part of the reason fans have been impressed with some of
Doncaster’s early season performances is because of some shrewd loan signings
from Darren Moore.
Portsmouth (7th)
Like Doncaster, when looking at the top end of the table,
you can usually find Portsmouth somewhere, finishing within touching distance of automatic promotion in the last two seasons.
The start to the season has been somewhat blurred by calls
for Kenny Jackett’s head, as frustration from last year's tepid finish to their promotion campaign remains. But a deeper look at the stats would suggest
Portsmouth should be up for a promotion spot again.
They have been solid at the back, with only four teams
conceding less shots per game than Pompey, and their average of just 0.91 goals
conceded per match is also among the lowest in League One.
Their clean sheet percentage of 36% is also impressive,
something that Oxford could definitely take notes on.
Though they have also been strong up front, with the most
shots per game in League One as well as the highest expected goals in the
division.
Part of this has been down to the player Doncaster lost, John Marquis. His eight goals so far this season makes him the top scorer in League One and gives Portsmouth the threat that they seemingly missed last year - when Ronan Curtis top scored with just eleven goals.
One concern for Portsmouth supporters is the loss of home form, losing half of their six games at Fratton Park this season - almost certainly a consequence of a lack of fans at one of the most atmospheric grounds in the division. However it may be taking eyes away from their much improved away form, which held them back massively last season.
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| League One table: Away matches 2020-21 |
Blackpool (12th)
Not many people expected much from Blackpool this season,
especially due to their lack of centre backs until deadline day. But Blackpool fans who've watched the games have the right to feel disappointed with even 12th
place.
They have conceded 1.27 goals per game and scored only 0.91,
but the stats suggest that actually they may be getting very hard done by to
have these records.
Their expected goals against is nearly 0.3 more than they have conceded. Similarly, their expected goals for of 1.38 is far better than their record of scoring less than one goal a game.
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| Number of goals scored compared to a side's Expected Goals |
The ones to last the distance
Some of the early positions might be deceiving but for others,
these strong or weak starts may be representative for things to come.
Sunderland AFC (6th)
Its no surprise to see Sunderland near the top of the table - sitting just four points off the top with a game in hand.
Only Charlton have more clean sheets than the Sunderland, and they haven't conceded in all but one of their away matches this season.
The Black Cats have allowed only 7.8 shots per game, the second lowest in the division and by far lower than the league average.
This excellent defence has helped them to see out games that they may have struggled to win last season, winning six of the seven matches when they have scored the first goal.
They are also the only team in League One yet to concede from a set piece.
Additionally, their expected goals against is far lower than any other team in the division - sitting at a remarkable 0.69.
Though this solidity has made very little difference to their play going forward, as they have the second highest expected goals for average.
We should not be surprised either as they have had the most shots inside the area per game of any team in League One (9.4) making them a real threat in League One.
Plymouth Argyle (8th)
It’s been a great start for newly promoted Plymouth and the stats suggest they
are well worth their high position.
Only two sides have averaged more shots per game than Plymouth’s
14.4 this season, and their average of 10.8 from open play is the best in the
league, showing how they are able to play through sides with their open style
of football.
This ability to unlock defences is further shown as no side
have averaged more key passes than Plymouth so far this season.
At the heart of this creativity is Conor Grant, the midfielder
having three goals and assists respectively. He has also averaged a high number
of passes per game from midfield at an accuracy of nearly 80%.
This has helped Plymouth become one of the top scoring teams
in League One, with 17 in 10 games.
Their expected goals difference also suggests that although
their finishing is slightly above average, it is not an unsustainable run.
Though for however good Plymouth have been going forward,
they definitely have their frailties at the back.
Their 13 goals conceded is the highest of any team in the
top ten and their expected goals against is the 6th highest in
League One.
It has meant for very interesting games, with an average of
three goals in matches involving Plymouth this season, only three teams average
more goals.
Wigan (24th)
Wigan fans, look away now.
Financial trouble has obviously made the story of Wigan a tragic one and just the fact they have been competing in most of their games is very impressive.
However, the stats show that a lack of scoring is probably going to hold them back from climbing out of the relegation spots.
Only Bristol Rovers have a lower xG than Wigan, and their total and their average of 2.2 shots per game is the worst in the division.
It's no better at the back either - 1.52 xG against is the second highest in the league.
They also concede an average nearly 14 shots per game, also amongst the highest in League One.
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