FA Cup Round One Preview

When league affairs aren’t going great, sometimes all that is needed is a healthy cup run.

This meant the last thing Oxford needed was to draw the highest ranked club in the competition in the very first round.

But this is the FA Cup. The magic, the upsets, the joy.

Oxford beating fellow League One side Peterborough at home is hardly going to make the top picks on the highlights reel, but it would certainly be an important result for Oxford fans and mark an obvious improvement, given they lost to Peterborough just a few weeks ago.

There won’t be the same sort of atmosphere for this year as in recent matches against Newcastle and Swansea due to the lack of fans, but that may give Robinson even more of an incentive to progress further get one of these big ties.

The prize money and the prospect of a televised game could bring in much needed revenue where it is lacking elsewhere.

Only a couple of rounds stand between United and the heralded third round, and based on recent seasons, fans have every reason to be hopeful of progression to them.

Oxford have reached round three or further in five of the last seven campaigns.

United also reached the fifth round of the FA Cup for just the fifth time in their history only a few seasons ago, and they have reached the fourth round three times in the last five years. 

Though it was not so good in the early years of the 2000s, Oxford qualifying for the third round just once in twelve years after the turn of the millennium.

But times have changed. Over the last five seasons Oxford have won  12 of the 21 games played in the competition, and they have been free scoring in these matches as well, netting 40 and conceding only 19.

Oxford have also been in the bottom half of the table when the first round is played on four of the six occasions they have progressed as far as the third round.

This adds to a strange record which has seen United sitting in the top half of the table on both occasions they have been knocked out in the first round proper since their return to the football league.     

It may be that the team try particularly hard to impress in the cup when struggling in the league, and they are possibly complacent when doing well. This is an excellent sign for an Oxford side sitting in 21^st and their opposition in 1^st.  

The rest of the season improves after these cup runs as well, as on all but one of the seven times Oxford have progressed past the first round of the FA Cup, they have ended in the top half of the table despite the poor starts.

This year’s opposition

However, Robinson will not be relying on the previous season stats to reassure him of advancement, especially when data on their opponent is so easily accessed.

Just over two weeks ago, Posh condemned Oxford to a fourth defeat in five league games with a 2-0 victory, the first of three consecutive 2-0 away losses for United.

Though the game itself was more even than the score line suggests, both teams registering 14 shots and seven corners each.

The possession was also marginal and Darren Ferguson’s men recorded just one more cross than Oxford.

We’re expecting it to be a similarly tight game so it may be come down to moments individual brilliance to decide this affair, and Oxford know all too well who can provide that for Posh

Siriki Dembele has been the stand out player in League One this season, doing an excellent job of mitigating the loss of Toney for Peterborough, and it was his box of tricks and tidy finishing, mixed with some suspect defending, that ultimately decided the last encounter.

Oxford have only got worse defensively, conceding seven in four games since the defeat at London Road, and Dembele has just kept getting better.

Dembele has scored four goals in as many games since the last game, making it five goals and three assists already this season, among the highest goal involvements in the division.

Dembele’s pace and trickery could cause a problem for United’s defence as he likes to drift across the front three, but maybe a particular challenge for whoever plays right back for Oxford given if he looks to cut in from the left onto his favoured right foot, as he did for his goal against The Yellows last time. Clare, who has struggled to convince defensively so far, may though be spared the challenge as he seems likely to be among those rested for tomorrow given a reported hip injury.

Though Dembele is not the only threat in this in-form Peterborough side.

The only other scorer in the previous meeting was Joe Ward. He provided the assist for the Dembele’s goal as well, a feat he has continued to do having now registered a league high fo six assists this season. Half of them have been to Dembele, the most dangerous pairing in the league.

Dan Butler in defence is also a threat, having netted a piledriver in midweek for his first goal of the season after laying two off for teammates previously this year.

He’s registered the fourth most crosses of any defender in the league as well as providing solid defensive work - only two League One sides conceding less goals than Posh this season.

With the Oxford backline looking stretched as it is, the addition of an attacking full back could be a massive threat, especially on the left flank where Butler and Dembele could create an over load, and possibly look to leave Ward isolated against Ruffles where he can run at or behind him, as we saw for his goal earlier this season.

Although there is no guarantee that all these players will start for Posh given the crowded fixture list, the strength in depth, with players like Sammie Szmodics ready to come into the front three when required, means it remains a team to be reckoned with for Oxford.

The two cup games this week will provide Robinson himself with an opportunity to give some players much needed game time, but given United’s recent history in this competition and their tendency to use the cup as a method of finding form, he will remain keen to progress at least past the first round.  

Winnall, Cooper and Hall will all be expected to have some involvement over the two games this week, but it may also prove to be a big game for someone like Liam Kelly, who has yet to truly find their form this season.

But whatever happens, this is a useful match for Robinson, and these players will be looking to make enough of an impact to cement their place in the future team as well as help United defeat a very strong opposition.