The arrival of Ralf Rangnick has sparked renewed conversation surrounding the so called ‘German Revolution’ in football, and the father of gegenpressing has captivated the imagination of the English public.
Never before have so many eagerly tuned in to witness an
early December clash between Crystal Palace and Manchester United.
In the end, both the score line and performance were
somewhat underwhelming; a 1-0 victory got United off to a successful if not
entirely convincing start, whilst fans hoping for a display of all out pressing
intensity were left disappointed to find that even the most exhilarating of
football coaches still values a semblance of order and structure.
Perhaps gegenpressing fans would have had more joy tuning to
a less likely source, one two divisions down the football period, and on a much
gloomier Tuesday evening in Doncaster.
That’s because Oxford’s first half display against Donny was
an exhibition of well-coordinated, organised pressing, as United utterly
controlled the game against a side now bottom of the table and already six
points adrift from safety.
Doncaster were appalling, struggling to string more than a
few passes together in an opening half an hour where Oxford managed more than
two and a half times more touches.
Whilst Doncaster were probably deserving of the tidal waves
of boos they received from minute one at the Keepmoat, we should not
underestimate the coordinated press of Oxford which ensured Doncaster, a team
who like to get their foot on the ball and play, could not escape.
…
Rangnick often speaks of the golden ten seconds – the ten
seconds after the ball has been lost in which time is the best opportunity for
a team to win it back and score.
The idea of counter pressing is not a new one, but using it
as such an attacking weapon is a modern development.
Against Doncaster, Oxford continually fashioned chances from
winning the ball back. In fact, Oxford were rather toothless in possession for
the share of the ball they saw in the first half, and most of their chances
came from winning the ball back.
The actual high turnover numbers, though, were surprisingly
low.
As Rangnick showed against Crystal Palace, the art of
pressing isn’t always in chasing the ball back deep within the opposition’s
half, but rather laying traps for your opponents to force mistakes, and launch
attacks of your own.
Oxford did this repeatedly against Doncaster, forcing the
ball backwards towards the keeper or defence, then blocking off passing lanes,
forcing the kick long and winning possession from this kick.
This contributed to Doncaster’s
passing accuracy of 51% in the first half hour.
Here is a good example of United’s plan in action…
As Doncaster play the ball out from the back, they appear in
little danger. Given Rovers played with a back three, Oxford knew they had a
numerical disadvantage and sat off them initially.
Notice United’s highly structured midfield block, with the
two more advanced midfielders blocking any pass through the lines for Oxford.
Herbie Kane then played a sweeping role behind this,
creating more of a 4-1-4-1 formation for Oxford, with the inclusion of Sykes providing
more discipline as he dropped back into the midfield and Whyte also marked well
all game. In this example, though, Brannagan and Kane have momentarily swapped
positions, with Brannagan sitting behind the four in midfield.
The effectiveness of this strategy was clear throughout the
game.
As Doncaster work the ball around the back, United follow any potential passes, like Kane here chasing after Smith as he comes short to pick it up…
It was an obvious plan to prevent the Doncaster’s midfield collecting the ball and, without putting much effort into their press, United prevented any significant ball progression. Perhaps had Doncaster been braver they could have played passes like the one shown above into midfield, but as it, was they didn’t, and Oxford continually forced them backwards.
Within ten seconds, a situation where Doncaster comfortably
had the ball at the back has become one where they are suffocated by white
shirts, and Oxford haven’t even broken sweat to force it…
And Doncaster have to kick it long…
Where Brannagan, in Kane’s usual sweeping role, has ample time to pick his header into midfield.
Following Rangnick’s ‘ten second policy’, Oxford quickly knock the ball forward with a series of vertical one touch passes, which results in McGuane picking up the ball just outside the area…
His one two with Taylor doesn’t quite come off, which is
unfortunate as both Whyte and Sykes were making runs into the area, with Oxford
instead recycling possession through the defence.
This was, however, indicative of how United forced Doncaster
back with structured blocking of passing lanes, forcing the ball long, and then
attacking quickly from these scenarios.
Minutes after this clip, the same thing happens again. Doncaster have possession at the back, Oxford block any passing lanes out, wait for the back pass, then push forward with more aggression to force Doncaster long…
Moore wins the header this time, and Oxford are back passed the halfway line within two seconds, and McGuane is unlucky he is not given a foul as he burst through the lines.
Again, United had several runners in behind, clearly a ploy
to break quickly after winning the ball back.
Doncaster’s midfield two were often occupied with United’s
two number 8s (Brannagan and McGuane), and Sykes often dropped too deep to be
tracked by a centre back, meaning Doncaster’s midfield were constantly pegged
back to deal with United’s ‘midfield 4’. This meant Kane as the sitting player
almost always won the second ball, and found himself with plenty of time to
pick his head up and launch attacks.
The flat 4-1-4-1 is not a formation we have seen too often
in Robinson’s fluid style, but it was a clear tactical ploy here, and one which
mirrors the formation Leeds’s use, with Kalvin Phillips as the holding player.
Oxford have their own League One Phillips in the shape of Kane, and this may be
an interesting method of getting him more time on the ball without overworking
him defensively.
Sometimes, though, Oxford’s gegenpressing tendencies were simpler.
On the occasions they lost the ball, they worked hard to follow Rangnick’s
policy of winning the ball back within six seconds, and this contributed to
Doncaster not being able to gain any rhythm in their play.
Here, for example, Brannagan is crowded out on the halfway line following a pass from Kane, and the ball breaks for Doncaster.
United don’t appear in the best position to win the ball
back immediately, but what ensues is chasing which Jurgen Klopp himself would
be proud of.
First, Kane applies pressure to stop the immediate progression of the ball, before McGuane sprints back to get goal side and then pressure the ball again. Brannagan and Long, meanwhile, have also pushed up to surround the area.
McGuane successfully forces the backwards pass, where
Brannagan joins him in hunting down the ball, whilst Whyte also pushes from
behind to close out the space.
They come out with the ball, and have a four against three at the Doncaster defence.
Once again, United have runners immediately, though they
once again waste the opportunity in what would become the story of their night.
The trend continued into the second half, albeit to a lesser
extent, as Oxford slowly lost control of the match.
Their best chance of the second period came from pressing, McGuane again leading the charge as he and Kane chased down a failed short corner attempt.
Kane won the ball, and released Whyte, who had the definition of ‘too much time’ to think about his shot, as he tamely struck it at the keeper.
Oxford’s wastefulness was concerning, but their pressing at
times was a joy to watch, and begs the question of where Oxford’s pressing numbers
stand compared to others in the league.
…
Oxford would class themselves as a possession team above all
else, so it is interesting that they rank highly for some of the key pressing
metrics in the division.
Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) is a tool that measures
the number of passes an opposition team are allowed to make in their own third
before an attempt to win the ball (e.g., tackle, foul, interception) is made.
The lower the number, the higher the pressing intensity of a side.
Oxford allow the fourth lowest PPDA in League One, indicating that they allow the opposition very little time on the ball before they make a defensive action.
It is interesting to note, though, that United only rank tenth for high turnovers, with 123 in total, well below Portsmouth with 170.
Oxford do not press as relentlessly, or work off second balls like other teams on that list like Wycombe, but instead efficiently press when the chance to break from a turnover is on. No team in the league has had more shots from high turnovers than Oxford, 27.
Oxford’s shot creation rate from high turnovers is
unsurprisingly comfortably the highest in the league at 21.95%, and suggests
that Oxford create a shooting chance every five times they win back possession in
the final third, a very Rangnick trait.
The graph below shows us how Oxford compare to the other
teams in the division based off both press intensity and shot creation from
these turnovers.
Oxford are among the top sides for both pressing intensity
and the number of chances they create from these high turnovers, making them
both high intensity and efficient pressers of the ball.
United’s main rivals for the pressing crown are Portsmouth,
who appear a side reborn this season under Cowley, as they’ve become pressing
monsters.
Last season, Portsmouth averaged a PPDA of 11.1, still the
sixth highest in League One, but a fair way off their frighteningly low total
of 8.9 this time round.
They also have the highest number of turnovers per game and
are just one behind Oxford for shots from turnovers, making them comfortably
the best pressing side in the League.
United, though, sit in a trio of teams who have set
themselves apart from the rest of the division in terms of pressing, with
Portsmouth and Rotherham joining them in the top band.
Wigan, Burton and Charlton also complete higher than
average presses and higher than average chances from them, but they remain a
way behind the top three.
On the other hand, sides like Wycombe, Sunderland and
Cambridge have a low pressing intensity, but a high chance creation volume when
they do win the ball back high, suggesting they pick their opportune moments to
press, or work off second balls in the opposition half.
Surprisingly, Michael Appleton’s Lincoln appear one of the
worst pressing sides in the league, as they languish with both Cheltenham and
Doncaster as teams with a low pressing intensity and chance creation rate.
Whilst Oxford have been excellent pressing this season, it
is interesting to see that there numbers have actually dropped off from last
season, when they were the outright best pressers in the League.
Their PPDA has worsened this year by 1.1 from 9.2 last season, although their shot ending high turnovers has risen from 1.30 per game to 1.35 this time round.
Oxford were by far the most aggressive pressing team last year, and the second most creative team from high turnovers, so in comparison their pressing statistics have actually dropped off.
However, the biggest takeaway from the two graphs is that
the general pressing intensity of all teams has increased from the 2020-21
season.
Oxford are mong only three teams (Accrington and Peterborough
are the others) who had both a high intensity press and high chance creation,
unlike this season where there are six teams in this group.
Most teams last season were grouped within a large cluster around
the average for both pressing metrics.
There are a multitude of reasons this might be the case –
the 2020-21 statistics are taken from the whole season, whilst the 2021-22 are
only from roughly half of the matches, possibly making the likes of Portsmouth’s
pressing unsustainable. There is also the note that last season was one of the
most congested ever played, and the general intensity of matches, without fans,
will have been down.
In a season of lows, Oxford were a high.
This year, though, United’s game seems to be refined, as
with much of their other play, and it is helping them dominate teams with their
press.
Robinson has a team willing to work hard for each other, and they have plenty of players with star quality on the ball, but that they are committed to working hard off the ball is what will decide if Oxford are successful this season.
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