What has happened to Oxford's pressing?

Watching Oxford at points this season has been borderline painful. 

Even when they have won, the tempo has been lethargic, and matches generally very closed and cagey. 

In other words, Oxford's performances so far this season have been surprisingly un-Oxford in style, so to speak. 

Karl Robinson could (and has) pointed to numerous reasons for this, stretching from injuries to new systems designed to be more defensively solid. 

But United's slow tempo may come down to something which has been crucial but not always the most noticed over the last three seasons: pressing.

From a sample size of just seven matches, we should be cautious of making sweeping statements, but their numbers when closing down their opponents have clearly dropped. 

This is particularly surprising, and perhaps even worrying, given the sides Oxford have played this season.

Five of the six teams they have faced are in the bottom half of the table, and four of those teams are in the bottom five of the division. 

Of the two teams United have played who are above them, only Derby posed a real attacking threat of their own, with Cambridge sitting back and allowing Oxford to control the flow of play. 

For almost all of the season, then, Oxford have been expected to dictate the tempo of their matches, but they have consistently shown an inability to do this. 

The ineffectiveness of their press is leading to them struggling to control matches in a way that they previously have, and this has to change if Oxford are to refind their attacking mojo. 

Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) is a measure of the number of passes an opposition team is allowed to make in their own defensive third before an attempt to win the ball (tackle, block, interception etc) is made. This shows how active a team are pressing their opposition regardless of the share of possession or territory they have as a team. 

A lower PPDA indicates a team press higher, whereas a higher PPDA suggests they allow their opposition more time on the ball to build from the back. 

In each of the last three seasons, Oxford have been in the lowest five for PPDA in League One, indicating they have always been one of the most intense pressers in the division. 

However, this season they have slid way down the list, currently sitting 15th with a PPDA of 13.3. 

Whilst Oxford's pressing intensity did fall off slightly last year compared to the previous seasons, they were still the fourth most aggressive pressers in the division.

This year has seen a notable and unexpected drop. 

League One 2022-23: Lower PPDA = higher press, higher PPDA = Lower Press

It should be noted that at this point in the season, all tallies are slightly inflated, as shown by the freakishly low standard set by Cambridge. 

Still, there has been a clear drop off in Oxford's pressing intensity both to the human eye and through the use of statistics. 

This is also shown through the number of high turnovers Oxford have made, which is defined as winning the ball back and starting an attacking sequence less than 40m from the opposition's goal. 

United ranked 2nd for high turnovers in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, but they have dropped down the rankings this season. 

(Note: The low number of high turnovers in 2019-20 was heavily impacted by the cramped fixture list that year)

It is interesting that again United's numbers were dropping off slightly last season as well, perhaps suggesting that this is a tactical tweak Robinson has been looking to instil over the last couple of campaigns, perhaps in an effort to make Oxford more defensively solid. 

Still, this season United are clearly winning the ball back less often in the higher areas of the field compared to Robinson's first few years in charge, and this may be preventing Oxford from gaining territory like they have been able to in years gone by. 

It is also impacting Oxford's chance creation, with United not able to break on teams with the speed and directness which they have in previous years.

This season, Oxford have created just six shots from high turnovers (only five League One sides have created less), giving them a rate of 0.86 shots created from high turnovers per match. 

That rate is well below last season (1.17) and even lower than the earlier seasons, showing how Oxford's low intensity pressing is contributing to their lack of attacking output. 

Oxford are yet to generate a goal from a high turnover this season, something they have done to great effect over the previous years, again showing how a drop off in Oxford's pressing intensity is leading to less threat going forward. 

The lack of urgency in Oxford's press has contributed to much slower attacks all round, often having to build right from the back, giving sides the opportunity to set their defensive structure. 

Previously, the high pressing game meant that Oxford would be able to attack quicker when teams were more open and off guard. Without this, attacks have often broken down before Oxford can get into shooting positions. 

Direct speed is a measure of how quickly a team progress the ball forward in metres per second. 

So far this season, Oxford's direct speed has been 1.27m/s, the 17th slowest in the division and significantly slower than in previous years. 

But perhaps it is not just the pressing which should be looked at, but the intensity of the team right across the pitch. 

Comparing Oxford's average tackles across the last four seasons, there has again been a notable drop this time round, and the same can be said for interceptions. 

Although these numbers are impacted by other factors, it paints a picture of the general low intensity which Oxford have been playing at this season. 

The same can be seen in the number of fouls which Oxford concede, having been sixth for fouls in 2019-20 (14.1 per game) and fourth in 2020-21 (14.3), but have only averaged 11.7 this time round. 

Though that figure is higher than last season's total, it shows that United are not being as aggressive in their play, and this is leading to the slow matches Oxford are playing in at the moment. 

United's high-pressure game has been a fundamental part of their success going forward in recent seasons, and very possibly a factor in their poor defensive record too. 

So far this season, by accident or design, Oxford's high pressing game has simply not been there. 

Returning to the intense standards they have set themselves could be the key to opening up these cagey games for Oxford.