Oxford don't win in the rain this season

The rain was falling so hard against Accrington that it didn't really feel like a football game at all by the end.

Whilst the pitch held up surprisingly well, the conditions certainly didn't help Oxford, with high winds also unsettling the visitors. 

Of course, the game could have panned out very differently had Oxford scored in the first 30 minutes, which they largely controlled. 

Once O'Sullivan had put the hosts in front, though, there never looked a way back for Oxford, even with their sensational record late on in games. 

From that moment on, it felt like a long night for the brave United supporters who had made the near 200 mile journey North, pelted by rain in their position behind the goal. 

This was not the first time this year Oxford have been scuppered by the weather gods, and their form in the rain this season begs questions of whether it is all worth it.

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The first thing to point out is that this is not meant to be a full examination of Oxford's game over the past few years, but is simply a fun exercise to highlight a peculiar trend that has occurred this season. 

A caveat to the below data is what constitutes a 'rainy game' is subjective, and whilst I have tried my best to trawl through the highlights of each game, it is possible that I have missed or misinterpreted some weather during matches. 

It is also true that, somewhat surprisingly, the vast majority of Oxford's matches over the last two seasons have been dry, so there is a far smaller field of evidence for wet matches. 

Still, there are some interesting trends which develop that may align with fan's theories that we always lose in the rain. 

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As a resolutely passing team, it is no surprise that rain, which often comes in tandem with wind, proves a challenge for Oxford, making it harder for them to get on the ball. 

Whilst it obviously does rain for both teams, it usually feels more suited to the opposition than Oxford. 

Accrington's only complaint about the conditions last night would be that it made the ball harder to grip when launching throw-ins into the area. 

This was the third time Oxford have succumbed to defeat when the heavens have opened this season, and it is an issue that has lost them 10 points. 

United have picked up over 0.6 more points per game in dry conditions this season than when it has been raining. 

Oxford United's Points per game in League One this season

Whilst not all of those results hinge entirely off the weather, it is interesting that the teams they have faced in poor weather have generally been of the same quality as those faced on dry days. 

The average league position, rounded to the nearest figure, of teams Oxford play in the rain is 12th, as it is for those who Oxford play in the day.

There is clearly not a sizeable difference in the quality of opposition United play depending on the weather, and there must be other factors which have led to their poor form against them. 

One of these may be the defence. 

It is a well known cliché that wet conditions lead to more mistakes from the defence, and it often seems a theory not applicable to today's modern athletes. 

Yet Oxford seem to be proving otherwise. 

Their Expected Goals against (xG conceded) is higher in the rain (1.27) than on dry pitches (1.13). 

This means that Oxford concede a higher volume of chances when it is raining, perhaps a result of the ball sliding off the turf, or maybe other teams going more direct into United's box in light of the conditions. 

Whilst those numbers may not seem far apart, xG works in fine margins, and therefore the difference of 0.14 shows a marked change in the number of chances Oxford give away. 

Oxford's attack is also weakened in the rain, perhaps as their passing game is not quite as effective on wet pitches, when it is hard to play one touch attacking moves. 

United's xG scored in the rain is 1.52, compared to 1.68 in dry weather. 

Again, it is not a massive disparity, but enough for it to be noticeable. 

It means that Oxford's average xG difference (a team's xG scored minus their xG conceded) sits at 0.25, which is well down from their average in dry conditions. 

Oxford's Expected Goal difference in League One 2021-22

What these numbers mean is that Oxford make less chances and concede more chances in the rain compared to in dry conditions. 

It should be pointed out that, even in the rain, Oxford's xG difference is positive, indicating that United are still usually the better team, and fans should not be completely put off heading to the match when it gets wet. 

Fortunately for these fans as well, United's struggles in the rain don't seem to be a long-term problem. 

Last season, Oxford not only held their own when it got soggy, but they actually excelled. 

United picked up 1.78 points per game in the rain compared to 1.61 in dry conditions. 

However, seven of the nine teams Oxford played in the rain finished the season in the bottom half of the table, and their two rainy matches against sides in the top half yielded just two points. 

This may be why they picked up more points when it was wet, but they nevertheless performed admirably in the thunderous conditions, scoring more goals (1.8 to 1.7) and conceding considerably less (0.7 to 1.32). 

It means that across the two seasons, Oxford have not shown any form to particularly worry future away day fans, although they do tend to get more points in a pleasant climate. 

Oxford points per game since the start of the 2020-21 season

Nobody likes watching football in the rain, and Oxford don't enjoy playing in it either this season. 

There doesn't seem to be any long term trends to worry about, but before you travel down to Accrington on a Tuesday night, maybe just check the weather forecast before hand.