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Why more Teams should Press High Against Oxford

It is not often that Oxford get played off the park, but when they do, their opposition always seems to have one thing in common; their press. 

It would be harsh to say Oxford were played off the park against Wigan, but they certainly struggled to implement their usual crisp, passing game, after the first 25 minutes. 

Oxford's passing accuracy against the Latics was 68%, compared to their season average of 74.2%. 

Part of this could be down to the physicality which Wigan play at, but Leam Richardson's side intense press all over the park certainly helped unsettle their opponents and stop them playing their usual passing style. 

United's next opponents are Portsmouth on Saturday, the best pressing team in the League, which is explored further in this piece

For teams so far this season, pressing high and intensely has proved the most effective route to victory, so Oxford will need to be at their best against Pompey.  

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The most accurate way of measuring a side's press is through a metric called Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA). This measures the average number of passes a team allows their opponents to make in their (the opponent's) defensive third before making an attempt to win back the ball (e.g., tackle, interception, foul etc.). 

This method removes any bias surrounding the amount of possession a team have, and the type of team they are playing. 

A team with a low PPDA are a more intense pressing side - they allow the opposition fewer passes in their defensive third before pressing to win it back. 

Portsmouth dominate this metric, with the lowest PPDA in England's top four divisions, whilst only Barcelona and Monaco are higher pressers if you add in the top four divisions across Europe. 


These teams are clearly not unbeatable. Of those ten, only... Rotherham United are in the top four in their respective leagues. 

Whilst La Liga are able to cope with Barcelona's frantic pressing rate, Oxford cannot do the same with the high pressers in League One. 

There has been a marked difference when Oxford play teams who allow them less time on the ball, with their average points per game against teams with below average PPDA (strong pressers) 0.22 lower than their points per game against teams with above average PPDA (less intense pressers). 


High pressing teams are those who average a PPDA lower than the median of Oxford's opponents this season, and low pressing teams above the median, which is 12.5 from Wycombe. Matches against Wycombe Wanderers, then, have been included in both sets of data as they don't fall on a particular side. 

It is clear the benefit teams who press high against Oxford have, with United taking 23 points off these teams compared to 28 against sides who don't press as intensely. 

United also score more goals (1.69 to 1.6) and concede fewer (1.13 to 1.27) against sides who sit off them compared to ones who make a concerted effort to press United. 

It is not difficult to decipher the reason for this, either, with sides who press Oxford unsettling Robinson's side, making it harder for them to get their foot on the ball and play through teams. 

Robinson is not the most dynamic manager, and Oxford often fail to find alternative routes when teams stop their passing game.

The issue has improved this season, as Oxford have taken points off teams even when they are not able to implement their finest passing game, but it has been a real problem for Robinson's whole tenure as Oxford boss, most brutally exposed in their playoff first leg dismantling to Blackpool

Oxford's average possession against high pressing teams is 5% lower than it is against the sides who sit off them, with Oxford unable to control matches as Robinson would like. 

Digging further into those passing statistics paints an even clearer picture. 

Oxford average 83 more passes against sides who don't press intensely (476) than those who do push high against them (393). 

More pertinently, though, Oxford's passing accuracy decreases from 75% against teams who don't press high, to 69% against the intense pressers. Oxford simply cannot play their quick, one touch passing football with the efficiency or accuracy against sides who rush them, and this takes out a major weapon in their armoury. 

The limit this places on Oxford's attacking moves is further shown through their shooting statistics, averaging 13.81 shots against low pressers compared to 12.13 against higher pressers. 

United also lose control of matches when teams press high, conceding 12.6 shots against per game when playing pressing teams and just 10.3 when playing sides who offer them more time on the ball. 

Oxford are at their best when they dictate the tempo of matches, giving time for players like Kane, Brannagan and Sykes to get on the ball. They struggle to get this control against sides who give them little time on the ball, and their attacking play is therefore much more reliant on individual creativity from players like Holland and Bodin. 

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Of course there are drawbacks with this data, especially as better teams tend to have a lower PPDA and higher press - the good teams usually want the ball more often. 

Rounded to the nearest figure, teams with below average PPDA are an average of ninth in the table, whilst those with a high PPDA are sixteenth. 

This may explain why the statistics so strongly suggest Oxford to be stronger against sides who don't press as high, given these are normally bottom half teams. 

A major part of the reason United still struggle more against the big teams, though, is because they press more intensely, and that will be a trend which will continue as Oxford begin to play the stronger teams in the division (Oxford's next four opponents are Portsmouth, Bolton, Accrington and Charlton, all above average pressers).

If Oxford are to push for promotion, they need to get results off these teams.  

Robinson must find a way to play against sides who press intensely if they are to avoid being brushed aside as they were against Blackpool last year. 

He'll need to have this plan ready for Saturday when some of the best pressers in Europe come to town. 

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