League One this year looks more competitive than ever before.
At least half of the teams in the division have genuine promotion aims this season, with the early highflyers Portsmouth and Ipswich hoping to fend off the chasing pack, whilst the likes of Barnsley, Oxford, MK Dons and Wycombe are all playing catch up after the opening six matches.
After such a small number of games, though, it is difficult to tell what is to be believed, and whether the League table in May will look anything like this.
Through the use of underlying data, we are going to attack the early season standings, and uncover which team's form seems to be fact, and which could be fiction.
In for the Long Run
The table a few matches in can be misleading, but some sides look set to continue at their early season pace, including a few at the top of the standings.
Sheffield Wednesday are one side who have stood out from their early season form, sitting one point off the lead after six games.
No side have spent a larger proportion of their minutes in the lead than Sheffield Wednesday (47.4%) in League One this season, showing how they have largely been able to dominate all the games that they have played in.
Sheffield Wednesday's underlying attacking data also illustrates a team who should be able to find the back of the net with regularity this season.
Only Charlton Athletic (6.84) have a higher Expected Goals (xG) from open play than Sheffield Wednesday (5.7).
Additionally, only 7% of Wednesday's xG this season has come from set pieces, the second lowest tally in the division, again only behind Charlton.
This shows that they do not rely on set plays for goals and are able to prize their opposition open through quick attacking play.
This is not to say they can't score from set pieces, though, having netted twice from a set play xG of just 0.51, further illustrating their knack for scoring right now.
Sheffield Wednesday have also not had it easy, having played opponents with an average points per game of 1.78 (adjusted for playing home and away). Only Barnsley (1.81) have had a harder start this year by this metric in League One.
Portsmouth is another side at the top who look set to maintain their good pace, with their underlying numbers showing a strong side both offensively and defensively.
Only three sides have a lower xG conceded per game than Portsmouth (1.09).
Portsmouth's 43 shots conceded from open play is the fourth lowest in League One whilst their 16 conceded from set pieces is the second fewest in the league, showing how strong they are defensively.
They are also able to consistently keep their opponents away from their own goal, with only Oxford (26%) averaging less match time in their defensive third than Portsmouth (27%), as they are usually the controlling team in their matches.
The questions for Portsmouth will come over their attacking output, as their open play xG of 5.39 is respectable, but not stellar, putting them joint sixth in League One.
They have been incredibly efficient from set pieces, though, leading League One with 4 goals from these plays.
Their 2.96 xG from set pieces does indicate that this is a viable and consistent route to goal for them, but there could be a slight concern over their reliance on these set plays, with only Shrewsbury (36%) recording a higher proportion of their xG from set pieces than Portsmouth (30%).
Moving further down the table, there are a few more teams whose positions right now seem to be consistent with where we'd expect them to finish.
Exeter City were something of a mystery package coming into League One, and some may be surprised by their current position just outside the top six. Their underlying data, though, shows that they are not out of place amongst the division's top dogs.
Their open play xG against of 2.85 is the second lowest in League One, whilst their total xG against per game is just 0.65.
Their statistics going forward put them roughly in line with their current position, with a total xG per game of 1.46, the tenth best in League One.
They look like a dangerous side on the ball, too, with an average of 52.2% possession (9th in League One) and 10.5 key passes per game (5th in League One showing) showing that they are capable of opening teams up with quick passes through the lines.
Direct attacks is a stat categorized as any move which starts in a team's own half and ends with a shot or touch in the opposition's box with at least 50% forward movement throughout. Exeter's 12 direct attacks is the fifth most in the division and shows that they are also capable at breaking with speed at their opposition and can put together fluid attacking moves.
This will particularly help them when playing the better sides in League One, as they can adopt more of a counter attacking approach, making them a good bet to be around the outskirts of the playoffs come the end of the season.
Charlton Athletic may be hoping to push into those playoff places as well, but their attacking excellence is cancelled out than a less than impressive defensive record which will likely prevent them from pushing into the top six.
Only four teams have scored more goals than Charlton (10) this season, and they have registered the most open play xG of any team in League One this year.
They are currently overperforming their expected goals by 2.82, but this is to be expected at such an early season stage when a team has scored plenty of goals.
Charlton have only failed to score in one of their six matches this season, with only Plymouth and Ipswich having netted in more games, showing that they are able to reliably score goals at this level.
However, defensively they look incredibly vulnerable, having only kept one clean sheet this season.
Only Burton Albion have a higher open play xG conceded this season than Charlton (5.8), and no side in the top half have averaged more shots against than the Addicks (15).
Charlton's excellent attacking record will mean they will likely continue to flirt around the playoffs this season, but they will have to tighten up defensively if they want to break into the top six.
Remind you of any teams from years gone by Oxford fans?
There will be sides who are less pleased they are appearing in this section, and one of those is Shrewsbury Town.
They currently occupy 20th position, and their performances so far make them likely candidates to be in and around those relegation places by the end of the year.
They have been blunt going forward, with an open play xG of just 2.74, the lowest in League One, and are yet to score a goal from open play this year.
36% of their total xG has come from set pieces, a record which suggests they may become too reliant on these routes to goal as the season progresses.
They are also susceptible to set pieces themselves, with their 1.73 goals conceded from set plays the fifth most in League One. They have not conceded from a set play yet this season, suggesting if anything they have been fortunate not to concede a few more.
In fairness, their open play xG conceded of 3.54 is one of the better totals in the division, but their inability to create going forwards is likely to cost them.
No side have spent less time leading on average per game than Shrewsbury (0.2 minutes), illustrating how they have been chasing the game in nearly all of their matches.
On the Way Up
Oxford United may not be good enough to push for promotion this season, but their underlying numbers suggest they will have enough to move away from the bottom end of the table.
Defensively, they are superb, with the lowest open play xG against (2.29) and lowest set play xG against (0.49) in League One.
They have also had the lowest percentage of action in their own defensive third this season (26%) and have been excellent at preventing good opportunities for their opponents.
With this in mind, they have been unlucky to concede as many as they have.
United have conceded 3.24 more goals than you would expect given the quality of chances they have allowed according to their xG, the third highest underperformance in the division behind Forest Green Rovers and Burton (who should be considered a relative outlier due to the incredible number of goals they have conceded this season).
This underperformance should level out across the season, meaning Oxford will hopefully be climbing the table.
Meanwhile, United's xG scored is the sixth highest in League One, although a lot of this is made up of set play xG, and their open play chance creation is very low.
Still, they have been a tad unfortunate not to have scored more, with keeper's playing against Oxford averaging a save percentage of 88.9%, the joint most of keepers against a particular team.
This is partly because of the low number of goals Oxford have scored, but also illustrates how they have been unlucky not to get on the scoresheet more often.
Wycombe Wanderers are level on points with Oxford, and they too could expect to rise up the table after a poor start.
They have been leaky at the back for their standards, but the statistics suggests this is not overly fair, having conceded 5 open play goals from 4.27 open play xG conceded, and three set play strikes from a total of 1.26 xG.
This means opponents have scored 2.47 goals more than you would expect, and at some point Wycombe's defence is likely to string together a set of clean sheets which could help them to rise up the table.
Team's facing Wycombe have also averaged 0.38 goals per shot on target, the fourth highest total in the league, suggesting that teams are scoring a disproportionate amount when they got their shots away.
Notice Oxford's high position as well on that list, again showing that their defensive record will yield results soon.
On the other end of the spectrum, Wycombe's 0.25 goals scored per shot on target puts them in the bottom half of the table, and suggests that their finishing has not been as hot as their opponents.
This is somewhat detracting from their otherwise very good attack, which has created 5.46 open play xG, the fifth most in League One.
In Danger of Dropping
There are always a few teams who start brightly but fade away later, and Peterborough United may just be one of those.
They have started in fine form, scoring 12 goals from their six matches, but their underlying data doesn't particularly support such a high rate of scoring.
Their 4.52 open play goals is just the twelfth best in League One, and their set play xG only makes it up to seventh.
This means that, altogether, Peterborough have outperformed their xG by 5.99, the highest overperformance in League One.
Additionally, no side in League One has a higher goals per shot record than Peterborough (0.14).
This is not uncommon for a side who have scored as many as Peterborough have at such an early stage in the season, but the data suggests that their hot streak will come to an end at some point.
If this happens then their defensive record won't get them too far.
Posh's open play xG against is the seventh highest in League One at 5.08, yet their six goals conceded is bettered by only six other teams.
This suggests that they have been somewhat fortunate not to concede more, and this is backed by their xG against difference. This data suggests Posh have conceded 1.79 fewer goals than would be expected given the chances they've given up, the third highest total in League One.
Ipswich Town have been more consistent, but they too may come under a little bit of pressure as the season progresses.
They have conceded just three goals this season from an xG of 5.56, giving them the highest overperformance in League One.
A lot of this is down to good goalkeeping, with Christian Walton having prevented 1.3 more goals than expected judging by Expected Goals on Target (xGOT).
Of course, this does mean they have a very good goalkeeping and that will remain, barring injury, throughout the season, but it is likely that at some point he will start conceding more.
That will play a bigger role when Ipswich play some stronger sides, as thus far they have played opponents with a points per game (weighted for playing at home and away) of just 0.39, by far the lowest in League One.
Ipswich's attacking numbers are also slightly misleading, having had the most open play shots in the division (72) but only the seventh highest open play xG (5.39). This suggests the positions they are shooting in are not of a particularly high quality.
They have definitely been overperforming in front of goal according to their xG, having netted 5.76 more goals than expected.
Plymouth Argyle join those teams in punching above their statistical weight, particularly in front of goal.
The Pilgrims have only registered an open play xG of 3.63 but have scored eight times from these situations.
Their total xG overperformance meanwhile is 3.22, making them fortunate to have scored as many as they have.
They are no better at the back, having conceded the second most open play xG (5.58) and are likely to start conceding more goals as the season progresses.
Like Ipswich, they have also had a fairly comfortable start to the campaign, with the joint third lowest average opponent's points per game.
Lincoln City have stumbled along to seven points, and the stats suggest they are also in danger of dropping down the rankings as the season progresses.
Their six goals put them just below midtable for goals scored, but the statistics show that they are very blunt in this department.
The Imps have averaged just 8.3 shots and 2.2 shots on target per game, both the lowest totals in the division.
They have been leaky at the back, too, with their 5.23 open play xG against the fourth highest in League One.
The inefficiency going forward and lack of steel at the back could make Lincoln primed for a relegation battle this season.
...
As with everything at this time of the season, it is too early to draw any real conclusions, but using statistics can help show the fact from the fiction in the early season table.
Some teams can outdo their numbers for entire seasons, so this is far from definite answers, but it does provide some idea to how the table could look by the end of the campaign.
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