If there is one positive to take from the 2-0 loss to Wycombe, it is that Oxford at least didn't concede their customary set piece goal to the Chairboys.
Oxford have been consistently good at defending set pieces and pose a major threat going forward, something which must be credited to the now departed John Mousinho.
The now Portsmouth manager had a growing influence on United's set plays, particularly corners, since he joined the club in 2017, and for the last three years or so, has been the main man in charge of Oxford's routines.
In this time, Oxford have looked more sturdy at the back and proved a real threat going forward.
Whilst this might not sound all that impressive for a League One outfit usually challenging near the top end of the division, it is a lot more than most previous United teams could claim to be.
In an interview with the Oxford Mail earlier in the season, Mousinho confirmed as much: "When I came to the club we weren't particularly good at defending or attacking set pieces, so we made a conscious effort to work on them".
It has not all been glorious, and there are times when United have looked incapable of scoring from set plays, but in the last three years, Mousinho has undoubtably had a huge influence on Oxford's dead ball success.
Key Statistics Explained:
We are going to dig into the data from each of the last three seasons to show how John Mousinho has managed to revolutionise Oxford's set play fortunes, and there are a few key statistics which might need some explaining.
Expected Goal (xG) difference = The Difference in the xG created from set pieces and conceded from set plays. A positive xG difference indicates they created more chances from set pieces than they conceded, and vice versa.
Set Piece xG % = The percentage of a team's total xG which comes from set pieces. A high percentage means they are more reliant on set plays.
Many of these statistics come from Opta Analyst, who have a lot of great free to use data.
On with the interesting stuff.
2020-21
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| This data shows Oxford's Set Piece ranking compared to other League One teams that season. The closer to 24, the better they rank for that statistic. |
By 2020-21, John Mousinho had complete control of Oxford's set pieces, and it worked wonders.
At one end of the pitch, anyway.
United registered a Set Piece Expected Goals of 0.42 per game.
That was the highest total from the last three seasons (yes, Oxford's success at offensive set pieces has peaked this early in the article) and meant they could reasonably expect to score from a set play once every two games.
Whilst they didn't quite put up these numbers (scoring 18 goals from set plays that year), they still managed to register the seventh most goals from these situations in League One.
Those goals came alongside a huge 191 shots from set pieces, the third most in the division that year behind Accrington and Portsmouth.
At the other end, though, United were more fragile.
They shipped 171 shots from set pieces themselves, the seventh most in the League. and their xG conceded from set plays (15.5) was in the bottom ten in the League.
They still came out with a positive record overall, registering five more goals from set pieces than they conceded, but could count themselves fortunate to have such a healthy lead, having an xG difference of only +2.5.
A relatively positive season from set plays for the U's, then, and their excellent set play record helped them win several tight games that season.
Oxford won ten games by a single goal margin that season, the eighth most in the division, and lost just six times to the odd goal, the third fewest in the league.
This showed the importance of Oxford's attacking ability from set plays, giving them a crucial edge in the fight for the playoffs.
2021-22
In the 2021-22 season, Oxford showed their unfortunate inability to multitask, shoring up at the back from set plays, but losing the potency going forward.
United were consistently in the top group for defensive metrics from set plays, conceding 12 goals (fifth fewest in the division) at a rate of roughly one every four games.
They were outperforming their xG against slightly (13.23) but they conceded nearly 40 fewer shots than in 2020-21 and were clearly a more defensively sound team.
This was vitally important in keeping Oxford in touch with the playoffs as their open play defensive record was much more midtable, ranking eleventh for goals conceded in the league.
Unfortunately, their attacking record could not have been more different.
They scored the third most goals from open play (59), but the eighth fewest (12) from set pieces.
Oxford's set play xG (10.77) put them as the sixth worst team in the division from these situations.
United also only created 153 shots from set play scenarios, a decline of around 40 from the previous season.
United relied on constantly opening teams up in open play, lacking the set piece threat which had given them the edge in tight encounters the previous season.
Close defeats to Plymouth and Sunderland near the end of the season spring to mind as examples of Oxford losing by fine margins when their set play excellence had bailed them out previously.
Only 15% of Oxford's total xG in the 2021-22 season came from set pieces, the lowest in League One that year and the fifth lowest in England's top four divisions.
Relative defensive solidity but a loss in attacking penetration. Baring absolutely no similarity to Oxford's current predicament.
2022-23
Halfway through Mousinho's third, and what has turned out to be final year, in charge of the set piece revolution, things seem to have finally clicked in both attacking and defensive departments.
It may seem unlikely given we have all seemingly spent far too many hours of our lives watching a Lewis Bate corner being cleared away at the far post, but Oxford have been one of the most lethal teams from set plays this season.
Their ten set piece goals is bettered only by Shrewsbury (12) and Ipswich (14).
They are outperforming their set piece xG by 2.33, so it is unlikely they can keep up such a high rate of scoring (0.38 per game). However, they still rank as the fourth best team in the division by xG from these scenarios, so they clearly pose a major threat.
In a season where their open play output has declined, this has been of major importance.
Their 125 shots from set pieces is the second most in the division, showing they are regularly able to create chances from dead ball situations.
27% of Oxford's total xG has come from set plays, illustrating how John Mousinho has rediscovered Oxford's attacking impetus from these plays.
Defensively, the Us have managed to maintain their good form from last season, conceding just four goals from set pieces, the fourth lowest in League One.
Again, they have been slightly fortunate having actually conceded an xG of 5.1, but this still puts them as the fifth best team in League One for defending set pieces.
This means that Mousinho has got Oxford to an xG difference of +2.8, the highest of any of the previous three seasons and we are only just past the halfway stage.
If they were to continue their current good form from set pieces, then they would finish on an xG difference of +5.1, a mightily impressive total and one that shows the hard work of Mousinho was really paying off.
After three years of set piece management, Mousinho seems to have got Oxford as all-round effective at set plays as they have ever been.
United's fortunes have fluctuated, but the difference made in their approach to dead ball scenarios has been monumental.
With Mousinho now pursuing more responsibility at Portsmouth's training ground, the question will be can Oxford maintain their high standard of set pieces without Robinson's right hand man.
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