Skip to main content

How worried should Oxford fans be by the Lincoln Defeat?

Here we go again. Alarm bells starting to ring. All the excitement and expectations of a dream season quickly descended into another nightmarish Barnsley away day.   

At the ground where Oxford hit six last year, they stumbled to a less embarrassing, but no less painful, 2-0 defeat.

They mustered just nine shots all game and a red card to league debutant Rob Atkinson compounded United’s misery in a performance which has some people worrying.

But before fans write off the season, history suggests that, surprisingly, it makes absolutely no difference whether you win or lose on the opening day. 


Over the last ten years, Oxford have won three, lost three and drawn four. In fact it seems these solid points are the best option.

Last season’s 1-1 draw with Sunderland nearly proved to be the start of a promotion season and a 1-1 against Crawley in 2015 was the beginning of one as Oxford gained automatic promotion from League Two.  

When Oxford have drawn on the opening day in the last decade, they have only gone on to lose their second league game once. 

Less encouragingly for anyone considering watching the Sunderland game on Saturday, when Oxford have lost the opening game of the season, they have never won their next match. Maybe this is why Oxford opted against using this game as the first chance to welcome fans back.

But unfortunately for Oxford fans, it's not just the second game where they don’t perform after an opening day loss.

United average just over nine points after the first ten games of the season when losing the opening match. That would put them in the relegation zone of almost every English league last year.

Adding to this misery, Oxford’s last away defeat in 2018 proved to be the start of their worst points total after ten games since the return to the football league, recording just five.

But do not despair, because the only other time they lost away on the opening day this decade, back in 2011, they ended the ten-game mark with sixteen points, the third best in this ten year spell and nearly snuck into a playoff spot.

With United suffering another away defeat against Lincoln this campaign, fans will be hoping for something similar to that season, but that nagging Oxford doubt will make many think it’s more likely to pan out like the former.

Recent history suggests United maybe destined for mid-table, after finishing 9th, 12th and 13th in the three seasons when they lost their opening match. 

Horrible History

The last time Oxford lost their opening match of a league season prior to this decade was back in 2004-05, and that didn’t end any better for the Yellows as they finished 15th.

A few years earlier they did the same and finished 21st.

At least it is not relegation anyway.  

Well, a year earlier in the memorable first full season of the new millennia and final year at the Manor Ground, Oxford did exactly that. They lost their opening three games without scoring a goal and inevitably suffered relegation from the old Division two.     

This means that over the last twenty years when Oxford have lost the first game of a football league season, they have averaged a final league position of 16th.  

But those days are behind us, right? It’s been more than 15 years since Oxford finished in the bottom ten after losing the opening match. And things will be different this time, this squad will be pushing for promotion not fighting against relegation.

All the pre-season signs put Oxford fans in an extremely good mood, and they are among the most favoured sides for automatic promotion. But United do always have a way of keeping our feet on the ground. 

Comments

  1. Charlie OUFCSeptember 17, 2020 at 11:41 AM

    Cracking stuff, some of this stuff i never knew about Oxford! ����

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The 'Oxford way' wins through against brutish Northampton

An early Christmas present was offered to Oxford in the form of out of shape Northampton on Tuesday night. Four goals, three points and a clean sheet an almost perfect way for Karl Robinson’s men to head into the festive period. Although it was an injury and suspension-hit Northampton side, great credit does have to be given to Robinson’s men whose desire to stick to their game plan led to an emphatic second half performance.   With the Cobblers taking much of the pace out of the game in the first period, it looked as though Oxford would be sucked into a physical battle with Keith Curle's men – not a good sign when playing the team who have won the second most aerial duels in the division.   And this showed in the first 45, as Northampton dominated in most aerial statistics, stopping United getting any momentum in the game.  During the First Half A change in momentum United set about rectifying this in the second half, and the intensity of their passing and moveme...
Post a Comment
Read more

Oxford vs Swindon: Pre Match Stats Pack

Without fans, some games at the Kassam this season have been accused of feeling like an EFL Trophy match on a Tuesday night. Not this one though. This is Oxford United vs Swindon Town. The game that needs no introduction, but here’s one anyway.   It’s the first meeting between the rivals since February 2017 in a season where Swindon dropped to a lower division than Oxford for the first time since 1987. But times have certainly changed since that season when John Aldridge top scored for United, as Oxford haven’t lost a league match to their friends down the motorway for more than fifteen years.   They will come into this one in high spirits as well after finally putting some chances away in midweek, putting three past MK Dons to gain their second win of the season to take some pressure off a poor start. Its been the reverse for the Robins who have lost their last five matches in all competitions after what was a promising start to life back in the third tier. Swindo...
Post a Comment
Read more

Scouting Potential Wingers

Oxford's comfortable victory at Oxford City was played in the background of an increasingly urgent situation in the transfer market.  After slow progress so far, Robinson will be hoping for several more incomings in the next few weeks, or his squad will be looking very thin when they travel to Pride Park at the end of the month.  Unsurprisingly for Robinson, one of his main priorities seems to be strengthening wide areas, where he suggested Oxford are looking to bring in another three players .  We've used data scouting to analyse some possible wingers Oxford could target, looking at their strengths and weaknesses to show how they would fit into this United side.  This is the second in a series of scouting reports, and for information on some of the techniques we'll be using during the piece, check out our scouting report on potential centre back signings .  Josh Martin  Norwich City LW/RW 20 Possible Transfer Type: Permanent Josh Martin finished last sea...
Post a Comment
Read more