How worried should Oxford fans be by the Lincoln Defeat?

Here we go again. Alarm bells starting to ring. All the excitement and expectations of a dream season quickly descended into another nightmarish Barnsley away day.   

At the ground where Oxford hit six last year, they stumbled to a less embarrassing, but no less painful, 2-0 defeat.

They mustered just nine shots all game and a red card to league debutant Rob Atkinson compounded United’s misery in a performance which has some people worrying.

But before fans write off the season, history suggests that, surprisingly, it makes absolutely no difference whether you win or lose on the opening day. 

Over the last ten years, Oxford have won three, lost three and drawn four. In fact it seems these solid points are the best option.

Last season’s 1-1 draw with Sunderland nearly proved to be the start of a promotion season and a 1-1 against Crawley in 2015 was the beginning of one as Oxford gained automatic promotion from League Two.  

When Oxford have drawn on the opening day in the last decade, they have only gone on to lose their second league game once. 

Less encouragingly for anyone considering watching the Sunderland game on Saturday, when Oxford have lost the opening game of the season, they have never won their next match. Maybe this is why Oxford opted against using this game as the first chance to welcome fans back.

But unfortunately for Oxford fans, it's not just the second game where they don’t perform after an opening day loss.

United average just over nine points after the first ten games of the season when losing the opening match. That would put them in the relegation zone of almost every English league last year.

Adding to this misery, Oxford’s last away defeat in 2018 proved to be the start of their worst points total after ten games since the return to the football league, recording just five.

But do not despair, because the only other time they lost away on the opening day this decade, back in 2011, they ended the ten-game mark with sixteen points, the third best in this ten year spell and nearly snuck into a playoff spot.

With United suffering another away defeat against Lincoln this campaign, fans will be hoping for something similar to that season, but that nagging Oxford doubt will make many think it’s more likely to pan out like the former.

Recent history suggests United maybe destined for mid-table, after finishing 9^th, 12^th and 13^th in the three seasons when they lost their opening match. 

Horrible History

The last time Oxford lost their opening match of a league season prior to this decade was back in 2004-05, and that didn’t end any better for the Yellows as they finished 15^th.

A few years earlier they did the same and finished 21^st.

At least it is not relegation anyway.  

Well, a year earlier in the memorable first full season of the new millennia and final year at the Manor Ground, Oxford did exactly that. They lost their opening three games without scoring a goal and inevitably suffered relegation from the old Division two.     

This means that over the last twenty years when Oxford have lost the first game of a football league season, they have averaged a final league position of 16^th.  

But those days are behind us, right? It’s been more than 15 years since Oxford finished in the bottom ten after losing the opening match. And things will be different this time, this squad will be pushing for promotion not fighting against relegation.

All the pre-season signs put Oxford fans in an extremely good mood, and they are among the most favoured sides for automatic promotion. But United do always have a way of keeping our feet on the ground.