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How much to infer from Robinson's first squad

 How much will Oxford's opening day line-up tell of season to come 

Saturday 12th September is the date that all Oxford fans have been looking forward to since the harrowing Wembley defeat to Wycombe. It is the day their promotion charge starts again.  

The fixture could also provide some clarity over Robinson’s squad.

Clare or Long? Sykes or McGuane? Atkinson or Mousinho?

Whoever starts,  will the opening game of the season really tell us how Robinson means to go on? 

If we look back to the opening league game of the last campaign against Sunderland, we get some of the answers.      

                                                                                                        Blue: Player started the first game of the season

                                                                                                  Red:  Player didn't start the first game of the season                                                                                                                                                                       


 

Only 50% of the outfield players who started the game against the Black cats, went on to play in the play-off final against Wycombe.

Mark Sykes was an unused substitute at the Stadium of Light and he had to wait over two months for his first league start, but was preferred to Ben Woodburn at Wembley nine months later.

In fact, Sykes was used from the start just seven times in the first 22 matches of the season, yet went on to make twelve starts from the final sixteen and played a huge role in United’s play-off campaign.

Although this may be circumstantial due to crucial injuries and absences, it shows how there is no way of second guessing who will become important from just the opening games.

On average, the five outfield players who played against Sunderland but not Wycombe went on to start just 50% of the league games, and the players who replaced them in the final game of the season playing 42%.

However, the five outfield players who were in the first eleven for the opening and final match of the season (Dickie, Gorrin, Brannagan, Henry, Ruffels) on average started 90% of the games.

With Dickie’s move to QPR confirmed, four of those key names will be available for selection in the new season.

Gorrin was signed last summer, so has no history at Oxford, but the other three players all started the first game of the 2018-19 season and despite a 4-0 defeat on the opening day, they kept their places and went on to start in the bulk of the games.

Henry and Ruffels also started against Oldham on the first day of the 2017-18 season and started 70% of the remaining games.

So, if these players start the campaign, history suggests they are likely to survive the rest of the season.  

PROMOTION PRECEDENT

In Oxford’s promotion season to League One in 2015-16 - a season in which then manager Michael Appleton was so clear of his preferred team that numbers 1-11 almost took to the pitch - the players who appeared in the first game played 70% of the minutes throughout the season.

A year later with slightly less on the line going into the final games, it was a more even split, with the starting team playing just 64% of the minutes.

And in Pep Clotet’s half season in charge, the mix was even greater - as players who did not play in the opening game got 41% of the minutes across the season

Obviously a massive factor in this was Robinson taking the reins three-quarters of the way through, and although it is unlikely Robinson himself will get the sack this season, it shows the unpredictable factors which make it so difficult to tell how pivotal players will be from just the opening day 11. 

Although once Robinson had begun to build his squad there was much less changeover to the team.

In his first full season in charge the opening day team played 66% of the matches and then last season his starting line-up played 75% of the minutes during the campaign.

Fans may also be wondering to what extent Robinson wants to stick with this team.

The boss has historically made use of the January window, so how likely is it that we see his starting eleven being added to throughout the season?

A quarter of Oxford’s squad last year was signed after the first game of the season. The previous season there were even more, as seven players joined after the hammering to Barnsley. 

 

Atkinson, likely to make his league debut at Lincoln, is one of particular interest. After Moore joined last season, he ended up sharing duties Mousinho - clocking up 20 leagues starts to the club captain's 26. Will it be similar for Atkinson this year?

Another player who excited fans during pre-season was Marcus McGuane and it will be interesting to see if he is able to cement his position in the side.

One thing for sure is that there will be plenty of twists and turns still to come and with injuries, transfers and the extremely crowded schedule, there is no way of predicting the season, so just sit back and enjoy the ride.   



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