Has Robinson changed his ethos?

Oxford finally opened their points tally this season putting four past Accrington Stanley in a result that sees them rise to the dizzy heights of twelfth.

In truth, a 4-1 victory flatters the visitors who were pushed all the way by an unlucky Accrington side, who levelled the game in the 72^nd minute but found themselves both a man and goal down three minutes later in unusual circumstances.

Although, this match might not just be a sign of Oxford’s changing fortunes but also a confirmation of a change in style from Karl Robinson.

Last season Oxford built a reputation for being a possession-based team, keen on playing their way through sides with the fourth most passes per game in the division and the second least long balls per match. 

Though the success of this tactic was clear, a poor start to the season - or perhaps signs teams were using the Wycombe play-off final model as a counter - appears to be convincing Robinson that United need to utilise a different method to get results this time round. 

Oxford have not managed more than 50% possession in any of the last three matches, they only failed to do this in 11 of their 49 games last season - and four of those were in cup matches against higher league opposition.

It means that in the last three matches Oxford have averaged just 49% possession, compared to 60% in the first three games of the season.

In fact, in those first three encounters (League and cup), Oxford reached 450 passes or above on every occasion. In the last three games, Watford, Sunderland and Accrington, they are yet to reach the 400 mark. 

The first three games also brought a passing accuracy of over 80% in all of them, but once again this accuracy seems to have been sacrificed by Robinson as United haven’t reached that total in any of the last three matches.  

Oxford have also gone into more ariel duels in the last three games than the opening three, and both totals are greater than the previous year where only Rochdale and Lincoln competed in less ariel challenges than the yellows.     

Last season, just two teams spent more time with possession in the middle third of the pitch than Oxford. So far this year, only two teams have spent less time in the middle.

Whether by choice or by other teams forcing Robinson to change his game plan, Oxford have been bypassing the midfield far more than you would expect in recent encounters.  

Direct route to victory? 

However, the change in style has not yet translated to a change in results.

The opening three matches of the 2020-21 season saw a win, a loss and a Carabao cup penalty shootout victory.

The last three have brought a win, a loss and a Carabao cup penalty shootout defeat.

Though there may be signs of a change in the performance.  

Oxford have averaged just over four more shots in the last three matches than in the previous games.

The quality of these shooting opportunities has also improved as United have had ten more shots from inside the box in the last three matches than in the opening games.

This means that 58.5% of Oxford’s shots in the last three games have come from inside the box, a far higher percentage than in the games where Robinson played a less direct style of football. 

Though despite the higher quality shooting opportunities, their shooting accuracy has gone down. Even though they have scored two more goals in the last three matches, their conversion rate has only gone up a mere 3%.

Their average of 72% passing accuracy in the opponents’ half has also dropped significantly since the switch of style, possibly suggesting why United have been unable to score when on top in recent games, most evidently in the Watford defeat.  

Surprisingly as well, the number of crosses per game has dropped despite Robinson’s desire to get the ball forward and into the box quickly. There may be a case that when Oxford show patience in their build up play, they are able to fathom more and better crossing opportunities, evidenced by a high crossing accuracy in the first three games compared to the recent matches.

But the more direct style of play is not built to look good on the stats page, but to get results, and since the switch to a more long ball route to goal United have found the net on five occasions, and it could have been many more had anyone brought their shooting boots to the 1-1 draw with Watford.

Having previously struggled against sides playing a route one style of play, it may just be that Karl Robinson is trying to fight fire with fire, as the last three matches have all been against sides favouring the direct game, and although it didn’t pay off immediately, it did earn his side four goals and their first points of the new campaign.  

With Crewe up next, a side with the second lowest number of long balls so far this season, it will be interesting to see whether Robinson continues with the method used in recent matches or if he reverts to the more orthodox tactic which proved so effective last year as Oxford face their first passing based team of the new league one campaign.