Boss Karl Robinson called Oxford’s intra-squad match on Tuesday night a bit of fun, but he wouldn’t of been laughing when he saw his first choice eleven, minus Henry, fail to break down a backline with no senior defenders in it. That's not a good sign when going to one of the meanest defences in the division on Saturday.
Only three League One teams have conceded less goals per
game than Peterborough - who have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last
four league matches.
Adding to this, only a few teams have conceded less shots per game than the Posh and their expected goals is the best in the division.
This is unlike Oxford who are yet to register a clean sheet
this season and are 13 games without keeping one in a run which
extends over last season.
For a side struggling to stop conceding, London Road is not
a good place to go.
No team in the EFL averaged more goals per game than
Peterborough last season, and they have already racked up seven strikes this year, with new signing Johnson Clark-Harris beginning to settle in following
his summer move from Bristol Rovers.
The striker came with a hefty price tag and big boots to
fill following the departure of Ivan Toney, but his two goals against Swindon
two weeks ago relieved some pressure on the front man.
Though Clark-Harris is not a lone horse in this team, as
Peterborough have showed consistent threat going forward as a team.
Only one side have averaged more dribbles per game than
Posh and their total of 5.4 shots on target per match is bettered only by Crewe.
This coupled with United’s average of 13.3 shots conceded
per game suggests it is going to be another difficult day for a struggling
Oxford defence.
Although, there are some positive signs for the Yellows.
No team have averaged more shots per game than Oxford, thanks in large to their 31 against Gillingham.
Oxford’s expected goals total away from home is also
considerably better than any other team in league one.
This makes it an interesting battle between a side who
seemingly hit their attacking stride last weekend, though it didn’t show in the
goals tally, and a team who have kept opposition frontlines very quiet so far
this season, especially at home.
Similar styles
Though there have been differences in results between the two teams, the style in which they are trying to obtain them is extremely similar.
The sides average 422 passes per game between them, a total
well above the median in the league.
They are not aimless passes either as Oxford and
Peterborough are 4th and 5th respectively in the number
of accurate short passes per game in League One.
The two teams also both have a short pass percentage of 79%, only MK Dons and Doncaster have a higher proportion.
As well as this, 92% of the two teams' league goals this season have come from open play, a very different threat for Oxford to deal with
against Steve Evans’ former side than his current Gillingham team who
threatened almost entirely through balls into the box.
Though that being said, both sides average over 20 crosses
per game, and only two teams have averaged more crosses than Oxford.
Peterborough have already let in four goals from set
pieces and crosses in all competitions this season, and their total of 13 goals
conceded from set pieces last year was the most of any side in the top half.
With players like Henry and Forde finding their form for Oxford, there might be a way through via this route for the Yellows as they start a brutal run of games that has reminded Karl Robinson of the frantic eleven match February last year.
Oxford travelled to Posh early on in that run as well, but U’s
fans will be hoping this game shows no resemblance to the 4-0 drubbing they suffered
on that day.
They meet under very different circumstances this time, with 15 places separating the teams, but it’s no less important as Oxford look to put a frustrating two weeks behind them.
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