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Slow start for the passers

If you ever want an example of contrasting styles going head to head, just watch a Steve Evans versus Oxford derby. The classic ‘good against bad’, long ball against short passes, pretty against gets the job done. And it did get the job done.

Gillingham had just 26% possession against Oxford but came away 3-1 winners, moving them up to just three places off the top, and moving United down to three places off the bottom.

This result epitomised the trend that we have seen so far in the early stages of League One as it is not just Oxford who are struggling to get their passing game going.   

Only a quarter of the teams in the top half of the table have averaged more than 50% possession in their opening league matches.

In fact, the top four in the division average just 46.7% possession, with only Hull averaging more than 50%.  

By contrast, all four of the sides in the relegation zone have an above average possession total. Bottom club MK Dons average a massive 62.7% possession.

The Dons also have the highest passing accuracy out of all the teams in League One but still find themselves bottom of the pile. Their accuracy is nearly 10% better than league-leaders Ipswich and 30% higher than Oxford’s last opponents Gillingham, who occupy 4th spot. 

Russel Martin’s side also have the highest number of short passes per game and the lowest long ball per game percentage, showing how the passing game has proved difficult in the opening exchanges. 


Wayward finishing

The primary reason most of these teams find themselves at the wrong end of the table is a lack of goals, something Oxford don’t need reminding of.

Only one of the ten leading scoring sides has averaged above 50% possession in the first set of matches. 

Though it’s not for the want of trying. The possession-based sides have actually averaged more shots per game, it is just finishing the chances that they are having trouble with.

On average, the teams that have less of the ball have a 5% higher conversion rate than the teams that use more passes, suggesting it might just be the missing final touch rather than any underlying concerns.    

These passing based teams also have a higher expected goals total compared to the direct sides, but these route one sides are significantly out performing their Xg.   

Expected goals difference is the difference between a sides expected goals per game and the number of goals per game they have actually registered. E.G. 0.45 means a side score 0.45 more goals per game than their Xg suggests they should.  

Although, the same phenomena of possession-based teams struggling early on also appears to be consistent with the other leagues in the EFL, albeit to a lesser extent.  

In League Two, 58% of the teams in the top half average less than half of the possession, whilst it is 54% in The Championship.  

The top three in League Two have an average of 47.6% possession between them and the six teams with the lowest passing accuracy in the division find themselves in the top half. 

Should we be concerned?  

Though fear not Russel Martin, not all hope is lost for you and the fellow passing teams.

After ten games last season, 50% of the teams in the top half had below average possession. But by the end of the curtailed campaign, nearly two-thirds of the top half were passing based sides with over 50% average possession.  

By the end of the season, four of the top six also had an above average possession total.  

It was a similar story in League Two and the Championship, where three-quarters of the teams which made it into the top six of the respective divisions averaged above 50% possession.  

Oxford also made it into the top six in League One but their start to the season was just as troubling as it has been this year.

The U’s sat in 16th with just four points having just come off a harrowing defeat to Blackpool - a game to which plenty of similarities were drawn during United's failure to turn possession into victory at Gillingham.

Oxford registered 24 shots in defeat to the Seasiders, the most shots they recorded in defeat last season.

After that defeat United picked up 56 points from their remaining 31 matches, at a rate of 1.81 points per game, propelling them into promotion contention.  

United fans will be hoping for a response like this after another disappointing start to the season - though perhaps not the 4-2 home defeat to Burton which immediately followed the Blackpool game last year.

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