Predicting whether Karl Robinson will play Sam Winnall or Matty Taylor up
front is like playing Xemi Fernandez in midfield against Wigan. Hopeless.
The pair have increasingly been interchangeable in recent weeks since Winnall began to get up to speed after a stop-start season thus far.
Winnall had scored three goals in his two starts prior to the Portsmouth game. By contrast Taylor’s eight games without a goal is the longest drought he’s experienced his returning to Oxford last season.
The heavy schedule means it’s no surprise Taylor has looked
a little tired in recent weeks.
Oxford play twice in every week bar one up until May, so
further rotation is to be expected.
However, it's not just the cramped fixture list that will convince
Robinson that rotation is necessary.
The two players offer different qualities to the team,
and their respective skills could help breakdown differing defences.
The players
Despite both being relatively small – a fraction under 5”8 – Winnall is clearly the more physical out of the two, whereas Taylor prefers to run in behind more often than hold the ball up.
Winnall wins an average of 3.1 aerial duels per 90, compared
to only 1.8 for Taylor.
It is also clear that Winnall is more interested in flicking
the ball on than dribbling with it at his feet.
He averages less dribbles per game than Taylor (0.1 to 0.3)
and is disposed fewer times (0.3 to 1).
Taylor is far more adept at beating opposition lines, as
well as playing neat one twos in games that Oxford have more of the ball in the
final third.
Taylor averages 13.8 passes per game compared to less than
10 for Winnall, and his passing accuracy of 66% is far better than Winnall’s
60%.
Taylor is caught offside 0.7 times per game, which is far
more than Winnall’s average of 0.3.
Another quality which you can notice from just watching
Taylor is his ability to win free kicks, and that too is backed up by the
stats.
He is fouled 1.6 times per 90, unlike Winnall whose average
of just 0.5 per 90 suggests a more physical player who prefers to stand up and
challenge defenders.
Taylor is also shown to be more mobile in his pressing, averaging 0.3 more tackles and 0.2 more interceptions per game than Winnall.
Who should play against who?
Oxford now have a challenging – but vital – series of games coming up, and who to start in them will be top of the agenda, having drawn blanks in three consecutive matches for the first time since December 2019.
By using data, we have built a basic profile of each of Oxford’s next six opponents to analyse who would be the best fit up front.
Each team has a radar map. The closer the line is to the edge, the higher they rank for that category compared to other teams in League One.
Opponent: MK Dons
Venue: Away
Verdict: Taylor
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If there is one game that a more physical striker is not
needed, it’s against MK Dons.
No side in the division has averaged a higher possession,
passing accuracy and number of passes per game than MK Dons.
Equally, the graph shows that they are not a physical side,
with low numbers of fouls, aerial duels and interceptions.
It points to a team that don’t look to bully their opponents
and with Winnall’s tendency to give away cheap fouls, he would be out of place
against their defence.
Instead, Taylor, who would look more to help Oxford keep
possession in a game where they could find themselves on the other of the
possession stats.
He would also look to run in behind a defence who look to
play a high line and concede many offsides.
Having watched MK Dons play the reverse fixture also suggests
that Taylor being the more energetic presser could be useful.
No side have been disposed more than MK Dons this year and
the number of hospital passes they played against Oxford last time makes Taylor
the more viable option.
Opponent: Peterborough
Venue: Home
Verdict: Taylor
Peterborough are always a physical side, but this time the
data suggest that Taylor might just edge a place again.
Peterborough, like MK Dons, average high levels of
possession play and lower numbers for physical battles.
It will be a tight game in terms of two teams who will look
to have more of the ball, but generally hope to have possession in the final
third, rather than passing it around their own area,
It makes Taylor, who is more effective at keeping the ball near
the oppositions area and playing one twos past a defence, a good option for
breaking down one of the most stubborn defences in the division.
Posh have one of the lowest expected goals against totals in the league and concede very few shots. Taylor is the more natural finisher of the two, and in a tight game it could come down to taking the half chances that come either sides’ way.
Opponent: Charlton Athletic
Venue: Home
Verdict: Winnall
Sam Winnall is better suited to teams which sit back and rely
more heavily on physical battles, and Charlton fit that category.
The last time Oxford played them, they were unable to
fashion any real chances as an aggressive Charlton side limited their options
up front, and resulted in a tame 2-0 defeat.
Charlton still rank second in the division for fouls per
game, and, though Taylor would be more proficient at winning them, a physical
presence up front is a better choice.
Charlton have a far higher expected goals against compared
to expected goals for, indicating a team that will give up possession and
chances.
Winnall’s ability to win headers in the opposition area will
be a key quality as Oxford will likely be regularly getting the ball into the
area.
Charlton have been playing with a back three in recent weeks, and two of their centre backs in Pearce (5.6) and Oshilaja (4.6) rank among the best aerial presences in the league, making it a difficult game for Taylor to play.
Opponents: Swindon Town
Venue: Away
Verdict: Taylor
The derby day reversal will probably be the biggest decision
Robinson has to make, and Matty Taylor is surely the safe option for this game.
But the stats also suggest that Swindon’s defence – who Taylor
scored against earlier this year – is better suited for him to start.
Swindon have a low passing accuracy compared to their
average number of passes per game, portraying a team who could be shaky when put
under the press.
Add to this that only four team have been dispossessed as
much as Swindon this term, and Taylor’s mobile press could prove to be
dangerous.
Taylor got in behind repeatedly against Swindon in the last
game and will be aggrieved he hadn’t killed the game off with one of his numerous
chances.
A high amount of offsides per game indicate there could be
an opportunity to do this again – his goals against Burton and Bristol Rovers
come to mind when he ran off the back of an attempted offside trap – and he
will look to get more than just one goal this time round.
Low numbers of aerial duels per game and attacking metrics means Winnall’s height as an out ball will not be needed as much.
Opponents: Hull City
Venue: Away
Verdict: Winnall
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Of Oxford’s next six opponents, Hull City away is the toughest.
They put up good defensive and offensive numbers and concede
the second least shots in the division.
Robinson picked Winnall against a similarly strong and organised
Portsmouth side, and he is likely to do the same against Hull.
Hull give away a high number of fouls per 90, intimating a physical
battle which Winnall may relish.
He will also not be required to press as avidly against a
side who favour more action in the final third – only one side have averaged
more key passes per game but fourteen have averaged more total passes than Hull.
Given United will likely be more on the backfoot, Winnall’s ability
to win headers and hold the ball up will be vital if Oxford are to get anything
from a tough fixture.
Opponent: Doncaster Rovers
Venue: Home
Verdict: Taylor
When Oxford played Doncaster last, they would have been disappointed not to come away with anything.
They looked beatable then and they look even more beatable
now.
They are winless in the four games after playing Oxford and
with the injustice fresh in their minds, Robinson’s men will be keen to prove a
point.
Matty Taylor is the most likely man to do that in this game.
Doncaster prefer to have the ball on the deck. They play a
high number of short passes, concede few fouls and are involved in the 2nd
least aerial duels on average.
Oxford were able to dominate the midfield the last time they
played, and Taylor’s habit of dropping back into deeper positions to collect
the ball could further the appeal for him starting.
The Kassam pitch may make it harder to play the interchanges that Taylor loves to do, but it will remain a game focussed on passing through the thirds, which should favour Taylor over Winnall.
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