Can Oxford still make the top six? Analysing the playoff contenders

Consecutive defeats to Plymouth and Morecambe have dealt a serious blow to Oxford’s playoff ambitions.

They are now three points and two places off the top six, with teams above them having played fewer games, too.

Yet the race is far from over, with five teams vying it out for three playoff spots.

Here we analyse which sides have the best form, fixtures and underlying numbers to carry them through the EFL run in.

Home and Dry

Three teams have safely booked their places in the top six, with Wigan Athletic, MK dons and Rotherham United now battling it out for the two automatic promotion places.

It is difficult to see whichever team misses out on that promotion not being heavy favourites to win the playoffs, and they currently look in a class above the other teams.

The promotion race could become very exciting in the coming weeks, but fortunately we don’t have to worry about them for this article.

Plymouth Argyle

Sitting in fourth position, five points clear of fifth place Sheffield Wednesday and on a run of seven wins from eight, Plymouth are sitting comfortable, right?

It is not quite that simple for Steven Schumacher’s men.

They have an incredibly tough run-in, with four of their last five matches coming against teams in the top six.

The weighted points per game of their final five matches, which takes into account whether they are playing a team at home or away as well as the difficulty of that opponent, is by far the highest in the division at 1.8.  

A lot depends on whether Plymouth are able to beat Burton away at the weekend, which in itself is not the easiest challenge.

Drop points there and the Green Army will be looking to hold onto their playoff spot with games against Wycombe, Sunderland, MK Dons and Wigan, all of whom still have a lot to play for.

Equally, Plymouth’s underlying numbers are not as strong as their results may indicate.

They have the tenth highest expected goals (xG) total in League One, at 1.52, which is a lower total than the four teams directly below them.

Their xG conceded is also only the tenth best, and is worse than three of the four teams currently chasing them down, with Wycombe the exception.

They can perhaps count themselves somehwat fortunate to have scored as many as they have, and that could come undone against some of the meaner defences in the league.

Only MK Dons have overchieved their open play xG total more than Plymouth, who have scored 10.9 more goals from open play than they can reasonably expect given the chances they have created.

Judging by the amount of time Plymouth spend in each game state, they also look susceptible to losses in tight encounters.

On average, Plymouth spend 19.5% of the match in a losing position, which is higher than both Wycombe (18.3%) and Sheffield Wednesday (17.8%), and only marginally in front of Oxford (19.8%).

 

The tight nature of their matches is further shown as none of the playoff chasing teams have won more matches by a single goal margin than Plymouth’s 10 this season, although Sunderland and Wycombe are joint with them.

However, looking at recent form shows Plymouth to be the ones with the most confidence heading into the run-in.

Only MK Dons (16) have won more points from their last six matches than Plymouth (15), and the two teams are also clear when extending that to the last eight games. 

Form is with Plymouth, but not much else.

They may be sitting pretty now, but things could change ever so quickly, especially if they can’t get three points at the Pirelli this Saturday. 

Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday are currently fifth in the table on 72 points, a total which, for most seasons, would be good enough to get you a top six finish.

It seems remarkable, then, that with six games to play, they probably still need another four wins (which would take them up to 84 points) just to feel safe in their playoff position!

Even then that wouldn’t be good enough if Sunderland one five of their last six, or Oxford their final five.

Yet Sheffield Wednesday, only two points ahead of Sunderland in 7^th, are in the best position to push on to confirm their top six position.

Their wealth of talent and experience has finally come to the play, and over the past 12 matches they have won 26 points from a possible 36, scoring 27 goals (2.25 per game) in the process.

In terms of game states, they are also strong, trailing for the least amount of time of any team in the playoff race, and leading for more than anyone bar Wycombe. 

Their success of late has been built on an excellent defence.

Their xG against of 1.24 is the lowest of any of the playoff chasers, and their 263 open play shots conceded is also the lowest of their five main challengers for the top six.

One area which could see them come undone is defending set pieces, where they’ve conceded an xG of 13.3, which is the highest amongst the playoff chasers and in the bottom half of all League One teams.

This is particularly pertinent as they play Wycombe, Portsmouth and Fleetwood in their run-in, which could all pose dangerous aerial threats.

They also have MK Dons to play in a final six games which has a bit of everything.

Their remaning games also include four away games, which is not good news for a team who have picked up a hefty 65% of their points at home this season.

Wednesday are probably still the bookies choice given their form and pedigree, but it is far from plain sailing, and again the picture could look very different if they don’t come away with anything from Bolton on Saturday, with a trip to MK up next.

Wycombe Wanderers 

After Wycombe’s electric start to the campaign, their performances as of late have been far from convincing.

After beating Oxford back in mid January, they went seven games without a win, but things have picked up since with five wins and no defeats from their last seven games.

They were not all that compfortable in their victories, though, edging past Crewe, Fleetwood and Doncaster between two comofrtable wins over Cambridge.

Ainsworth’s men found a way to squeeze past these teams, though, which could be key as they play three lowly teams (Gillingham, Wimbledon and Burton) in their final five matches, in what is the easiest run-in of all the playoff teams.

Although they also have games against Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday, which could be key in deciding the season.

They have at points struggled games against bigger teams, claiming twelve points from the twelve matches they’ve played against fellow top eight sides and this could let them down when they play their two playoff competitors.

Whilst they have not been overflowing with goals this season, their numbers show that they have been reasonably prolific in creating chances.

Their 43.3 xG from open play and 20.3 xG from set pieces rank them as the fourth best side in both categories.

Their game states diagram also shows them to be relatively dominant when they play. 

Wycombe are currently the side both Sunderland and Oxford will be examining most closely, but winning their three matches against the lower sitting teams will leave them on 81 points. Any results against from the other two games are a bonus.

In this crazy League One season, that still might not be enough.

But the only thing Wycombe can do is win as many of their remaining games as they possibly can. Whether that will get them in the playoffs is more dependent on the performances of those around them than themselves.

Sunderland AFC

It has been another up and down season for Sunderland, but under Alex Neil they look set to challenge the playoffs again.

They’ve claimed 14 points from their last six games, which puts them as the fifth most in-form side in the division, and the team seems to have finally settled under the new manager.

They have scored the fifth most goals this season and averaged the fifth most shots per game, and with Ross Stewart up front, clearly have the artillery needed to break down teams when they really need to. 

They also average the third most xG scored in League One, the most out of all the playoff chasing teams. 

Whilst Sunderland are good at not losing games, their game states diagram shows their matches to be in the balance right till the end, with the highest percentage of time drawing than any other playoff chaser.

The nerves which seem to always haunt Sunderland at this time of the year will not be helped by that.

 

It is technically in Sunderland’s hands, with their game in hand on Wycombe meaning they could leapfrog them by winning all their matches, but with Oxford, Plymouth and Rotherham still to come, that looks a difficult task.

The weighted points per game of their remaining opponents (1.56) is the joint third-highest in the division, meaning they have a real challenge on their hands to get into that top six.

Oxford United

If Sunderland’s trip to Oxford is a big game for the Black Cats, it is even more so for the home side, who realistically need a win to keep their hopes of breaking into the top six alive.

Whilst Oxford are the last of the playoff chasing pack, they still have a real chance of a very good chance.

They are the top scorers in the division, with 75 goals, and also have the highest open play xG total of any team in the league. 

The problem for Oxford, though, lies in their remaining opponents.

Their next four games include Sunderland, MK Dons, Rotherham and… Fleetwood Town (its an Oxford problem).

With the onus on United to win those games if they are going to break into the top six, they will have to risk it all against some very strong sides.

One consolation is their last game of the season is at home to Doncaster, who will more than likely be relegated by then anyway.

It will be an uphill struggle for Oxford, but not impossible.

No team chasing the top six has an easy run-in, and it creates an interesting “pre-playoff playoff” scenario, as many of the teams face off against each other.

It will be all about who can win these matches, and if Oxford can, then they are in as strong a position as anyone. 

Predictions

It would be pretty irrational to try and predict this incredible playoff race, but if you managed to make it to the end of this article, then you probably deserve some sort of closure.  

My predicted final table looks something like this:

As much as I would love to see Oxford pull it out of the bag again, I think it is just too big an ask to win all their games against Sunderland, MK Dons, and Rotherham, and I think the strength of the other teams in the race means they will struggle to make it into the playoffs with anything short of maximum points from their final five.

Plymouth also miss out, despite their current position in fourth, as their underlying numbers have not been as impressive as their counterparts, so I think they will struggle in their intense fixture list.

Wycombe have proved they can beat the teams below them, so I think their matches against Crewe, Fleetwood and Burton just give them the edge, but their game against Plymouth is the one I am billing up to be the “sixth spot decider”.

Sunderland will do just enough to scrape in, and Sheffield Wednesday will be the fourth best side.

I’ve thrown in my automatic promotion predictions just for fun, so according to my predictions, our playoff fixtures will be Rotherham vs Wycombe (the other two games this season have finished 0-0, so don’t hold out for goals there) and Sunderland vs Sheffield Wednesday (the battle of the big boys!).

These are obviously just my opinions based on some of the data I have outlined in the article, and it is impossible to really tell what is going to happen, as five teams fight for three places in one of the most high quality playoff races in living memory.