Oxford made made full use of the loan market this season, signing five players who have all played roles in their promotion push.
9% of United’s goals and a remarkable 40% of their assists
have come from their loanees this year (two of whom only played half a
season).
They’ve done good business, then, and it may be worth pursuing deals for some of these players beyond the summer.
But which ones should they be and who could be available?
Gavin Whyte
Whyte’s second spell at Oxford started rather quietly, but in December I reported that his underlying numbers had actually been much greater than his performances suggested.
In the second half of the season, that began to show.
Whyte picked up 10 league assists, and a further one in the Carabao Cup, making him United’s most creative player this season.
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| League assists for Oxford |
Whyte struggled with his finishing, but his movement meant he was able to consistently get in these dangerous positions, and there were signs of things improving as the season went on.
He averaged 1.38 shots per 90 in League One but managed only the one goal, giving him a 0.03 goals per shot taken rate, which is the lowest of any player to have scored a goal for Oxford this season, and only Herbie Kane (0.00) has a worse rate of players to have taken over 15 shots.
However, Whyte’s creative
stats have more than made up for this.
He is in the top twenty
League One Players for Expected Assists (xA) per 90 at 0.16, and is ranked
fifth for all League One attackers.
His 1.15 chances created per
90 is also within the division’s top
twenty, as he has shown himself to be one of the League’s best creators.
Whyte has been impressively versatile, too, playing in five different positions
(striker, both wings, attacking midfielder and a brief spell at right
midfield).
Whyte’s profligacy in front
of goal is frustrating for fans, but he has certainly developed into a vital
player for United, and if the option of getting him back this summer is on
the table, it would definitely be one Oxford should look into.
He has generally struggled
since moving to Cardiff, where he has played 37 games and registered one goal
and one assist.
He had a relatively
successful spell at Hull last season, scoring four times, but it is
unlikely he will establish himself in a Championship starting eleven next
season, so getting the Northern Ireland international back next season,
possibly on a permanent deal, should be viewed as both a priority and a possibility.
Nathan Holland
Another returning winger who joined on loan in the summer was Nathan Holland, and whilst he has not been quite as ever present in the Oxford eleven this year, he has arguably had an equally big impact.
Nobody has averaged more dribbles per 90, 3.4, than Nathan Holland at Oxford this season, as he has been charged with breaking down teams, particularly late on in games.
Only Marcus McGuane (18) has made more substitution appearances for Oxford than Holland (14) this season, showing his role as chief impact sub.
This does not mean Holland’s output has been limited,
though, as he has shown himself to be an integral part of Oxford’s attacking
unit when he plays.
According to Opta Analyst, which provides in-depth, free to
use data on the EFL, Nathan Holland is involved in 2.68 goal ending open play
sequences per 100 sequence involvements, which is the ninth best in the
division, and the most of any player who does not play centre forward/striker.
This means that when he is involved in a possession for Oxford, it regularly
ends in a goal.
He’s also involved in 15.55 shot ending open play sequences per 100 sequence involvements (again, this just means he is regularly involved in dangerous attacks) and has been involved in attacks worth a total of 9.68 xG this season, both
totals in the top 15 for League One players.
His most memorable strike for the Us was the long-distanced
curler to win it late against Portsmouth, but he has chipped in with four
other goals and an additional five assists, which means he is one of six United
players to reach double figures for goal involvements this year.
Nathan Holland has only started 21 games this season, and
given his previous injury record, it is possible teams at a higher level will
be unwilling to take a chance on the West Ham youngster.
This could open a chance for United to resign Holland for the 2022-23 season, and the stats, as well as the eye test, suggest he would be well worth the investment if the chance came up.
Herbie Kane
Whatever your opinions on Herbie Kane, there is no doubting
that he has technical ability well beyond the level of League One.
He has divided opinion, particularly in the second half of
the season, where he has been asked to play a holding role which does not
naturally suit his physical abilities, whilst also covering United's expansive
formation which involved Seddon pushing up to play almost as a second winger.
It means he has sometimes been caught out by swift
counterattacks, as shown by the high quantity of fouls he has conceded (36) and
the number of times he has been dribbled past this season (29), which are
fourth and third respectively in this Oxford team.
He has also picked up seven cards (six yellows, one red),
which is the joint third most in the Oxford team.
This should not come as a massive surprise though, given the
stopper role he is being asked to play, with little support offered to mitigate
against his physical limitations.
In fact, given the unnatural position he has been asked to
play, it could be argued Kane is doing an excellent job.
Digging into Opta Analyst’s stats again we can find that he
is very strong at recovering possession for United, and then starting attacking
moves.
Kane’s 25.3 open play sequence starts per 1000 opposition touches (the number of times a player regains control of possession and initiates the first pass in a new sequence) is in the top ten for all League One players, and is the sixth most of the division's midfielders.
These numbers may be enhanced by Oxford’s tendency to win
the ball back quickly and dominate possession themselves, but Kane also shows
himself to be a diligent worker to win the ball back, even if this is not
always obvious when you see him getting beaten one-on-one.
He averages the third most recoveries (a player taking
possession of a loose ball) per 1000 opposition touches (12.75) in the division,
and is also high for tackles won.
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| League One players per 1000 opposition touches (minimum 900 minutes) |
This is without touching on his on-ball qualities.
He has completed 150 more passes than any other Oxford player this season at 1975 and has averaged 60.1 passes per 90, which is the ninth highest in League One.
His 4.4 accurate long passes per 90 minutes is also in the top three outfield players for Oxford.
Given Barnsley’s relegation, it seems unlikely
Oxford would have any chance of getting Kane back, but his loan spell has
certainly been successful, and has shown the technical level Oxford want
their team to be at.
Jordan Thorniley
As Oxford’s playoff hopes slowly slid away in the back end
of the season, it can be easy to forget that they lost such a vital player in
Jordan Thorniley in January.
McNally’s performances have been encouraging but the loss of
Thorniley definitely did not help Oxford’s defence.
He was highly skilled at stepping out to win the ball back
for Oxford, averaging 3.26 interceptions per 1000 opposition touches, which
ranked the seventh best in League One and the fifth best of the division's defenders.
He also ranked fifth for recoveries per 1000 opposition touches (9.19) and was also high for successful tackles (1.46).
Like Kane, he was well equipped at getting Oxford attacking
moves started, as seen by his 22.76 open play sequence starts (19th
of all League One players and 9th of all defenders).
Part of this was down to his comfortableness on the ball,
which made him the perfect fit for Oxford.
His 57.1 passes per 90 was the third most at the club and
in the top twenty of all League One players with a minimum of 15 appearances.
His 4.5 accurate long balls per 90 is also the second most
of outfield players at Oxford, and his consistency meant he rarely lost the
ball, with his 0.3 possession losses per 90 the lowest of any of Oxford’s four
regular centre backs this season (Brown, Moore and McNally being the others).
He held his own aerially, with the third most headers won on
average at Oxford with 5.3, although this is notably below both Moore and McNally
and may be a drawback in his game.
Thorniley seemed surplus to requirements at Blackpool when
he arrived in the summer, and there didn’t seem to be much need for him when he
returned in January (it seemed an ‘out of spite’ deal from Blackpool following
their failed pursuit of Brannagan), but he has managed to establish himself in their
side again.
He has started in 11 of a possible 16 games since returning to the club, playing ninety minutes in all but one of those games.
If he was available, there is no doubt that you would take Thorniley back, but the situation is far from clear and the ball is firmly in Blackpool’s court.
Ciaron Brown
Brought in to replace Thorniley on deadline day, Ciaron Brown has experienced mixed success.
Whilst being fairly solid at centre in his first few games,
he appeared woefully uncomfortable on the ball.
His 43.5 passes per 90 is considerably lower than any of Oxford’s other central defensive options, and he also played the most inaccurate short passes of all of them.
His lack of technical ability has also meant he's been susceptible to losing possession, and putting oxford in dangerous situations.
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| Oxford Centre Backs with minimum 10 games |
He has delivered a series of
consistently solid defensive displays, typified by a high quantity of successful
duels.
His 2.1 successful tackles
per 90 is fifth of all Oxford players and behind only Luke McNally for defenders.
His 1.9 interceptions per 90,
meanwhile, is the most of any player at the club to have played over 10
matches.
He surprisingly ranks lowest
of all the centre backs for aerial duels won per 90 (4.7) but he definitely
provides a presence in both boxes from set plays.
Brown has struggled to
establish himself at Championship levels, with 17 appearances in the last two
seasons for Cardiff.
A drop down to League One
would make sense, but he is not a player in the mould of previous Robinson
signings, and his lack of ability on the ball probably means if he signed it
would be as a left-back.
This does not rule out a move for the Cardiff loanee, but it does make it one of the less likely routes for Oxford to explore.
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