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Oxford are guilty of not taking their chances, but nothing more

It is the nature of football fans to be pessimistic. 

The game leads you on a rollercoaster of emotions throughout the season, and people understandably tend to overreact in the highly charged environment that is the EFL run in. 

Against Morecambe on Tuesday, though, it felt like Oxford probably were doomed to another season in League One, as their promotion hopes seemingly dissipated into the Lancashire rain. 

But this Oxford team have a tendency to surprise. They've been doing it all season long. 

They are only three points off the playoffs (albeit with teams above them having played less) and a win in front of a sell-out crowd on Saturday might just keep that Championship dream flickering. 

Last season's defeat to AFC Wimbledon at around this time appeared similarly damning, but United still found a way into the top six.

There is no doubt, though, that two defeats in five days have put them in the backseat this time round. 

Whilst the adventure has been incredibly fun, some may point to signs throughout the season that this team, and this system, were not yet built to challenge at the very top of the division. 

But if Oxford's campaign does end with Doncaster at home at the end of April, we shouldn't look back at these two games with anger or regret. 

Maybe the system did make Oxford too venerable against better sides, or poor January recruitment left them short of options at the back. 

But at the end of the day, Oxford have lost ground in this race not because of systematic flaws, but because of poor finishing in two matches. The only two matches where it has been a problem all season. 

Had Oxford come away with a victory from Morecambe (as they probably deserved) and claimed at least a point from Home Park (again, as they deserved), the playoff race would be well and truly on. 

They didn't take their chances and paid the price, but this is the only crime they have committed, and fans would do well to remember that before rattling off reasons why Oxford were never good enough to get promoted. 

Across the two games, Oxford managed 28 shots to 17 for their opposition. 

They took 19 shots in the penalty area, scoring once. The opposition took seven and scored three times. 

Oxford registered 1313 touches compared to 991 for Plymouth and Morecambe combined, as well as 978 passes to 659, and 28 crosses to 20. 

Admittedly, these numbers are exaggerated by Oxford's pure dominance over Morecambe, but United by no means fell apart during these matches, or their attacking patterns came unstuck. They deserved results out of both matches, and would have got them had they taken their chances. 


For the first time this season, Oxford struggled to score goals. 

They have been outperforming their open play Expected Goals (xG) by just under seven for the rest of the campaign, so a drop off is not a surprise. These kind of matches will always happen. 

Oxford have outperformed their open play xG all season

Perhaps people are right to think Oxford's gung-ho approach was never going to provide a consistent winning formulae, enough to earn promotion anyway. 

There are certainly problems which will need addressing in the summer. 

Yet these flaws have not mattered all season, as Oxford have continuously supplied miraculous results from the brink of defeat. 

Had Oxford scored more than one of the numerous chances they created against Plymouth and Morecambe, then these flaws still wouldn't matter. 

Oxford may still make the playoffs this year, especially with a challenger in Sunderland up next, Ipswich's loss to Cambridge and the unremarkable performances of Wycombe who currently sit sixth. 

If they don't, though, it will not be for a lack of effort, or tactical flaws. It will be because they suddenly lost their finishing touch when it really mattered. 

Missing chances does not make Oxford a bad team, and it does not make this a bad season. 

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