The signing of Ciaron Brown makes total sense. He is a sloid, left footed centre back who knows the club well and is physically more than capable of challenging in the upper echelons of League One.
In his loan spell at the club last season he showed versatility and commitment, becoming a fans favourite with his performances at left back.
But his loan spell also showed his limits as a player and how, if Oxford are to return to the back four which Karl Robinson has hinted at, a top quality centre back addition, perhaps even two, are needed before United can consider pushing at the top of League One.
Brown's Defensive Game
Brown's major weapon is his physicality, and he particularly excelled in his defensive duels last year.
According to data from fbref, Ciaron Brown won as many tackles as both Jordan Thorniley and Elliot Moore (20), despite playing significantly less minutes than both.
It meant he ended the season averaging more tackles won per 90 than any other Oxford player to have played over 5 matches.
Brown also averaged the fifth most interceptions of Oxford players with over 5 matches played, with 1.62, although this was behind both Thorniley and McNally.
These stats speak of a committed player willing to put a foot in and engage players in duels, but Brown struggles with the consistency and reading of the game that is required of a central defender in a back four.
Brown is slightly reckless when engaging in his tackles, allowing his opponent space to burst into.
Only Thorniley was dribbled past more on average per 90 than Brown of Oxford's four centre backs last season, showing how Brown could be beaten slightly too easily.
Brown is also not particularly dominant in the air, averaging the fewest aerial duels won per 90 (4.7) of Oxford's four centre backs last season.
His aerial duel success rate, meanwhile, is also the lowest among the four defenders.
His ground duels success rate (tackles, interceptions, blocks) is better, with his 66.04% putting him about average of the defenders.
But he struggles when looking at his ball recoveries per 90, which is just above Luke McNally but well below Moore and Thorniley.
This perhaps speaks to a weakness in his reading of the game, unable to track the space so as to win the ball back without engaging the opposition in a one against one duel.
Whilst Brown regularly engages in more tackles than Elliot Moore, it is pertinent that he registers significantly less ball recoveries, showing how Moore's defensive awareness is at a different standard to Brown.
With all of these stats there is the important caveat that Brown played a lot of his final games at left back, where more one against one duels with wingers would be expected, but it still indicates that Brown is somewhat reckless in his play, and this sometimes leaves Oxford vulnerable at the back.
Whilst this is not ideal for a centre back in any formation, it is much easier to adapt to in a back three or five. With the extra man at the back, one player can afford to be more aggressive, pushing to win the ball back.
This is likely the role we would have seen McNally or Brown playing, whilst Moore would shield behind, sweeping up play and adding to those ball recovery stats.
In a back four this is much harder.
If one defender engages, then he has to win it, or risk isolating their centre back partner. There is far less cover for Brown in a back four, and his tendency to dive in and get caught out of position would be exposed too often.
This is not to say it is not possible to have a ball winning centre back in a back four, with Rob Dickie a prime example of a player who was good enough to pull off that role. But it would be hard to argue Ciaron Brown is at the same standard of Rob Dickie, and his lack of pace means that when he gets caught out, there is far less likelihood of him recovering.
This could be mitigated with more defensively minded full backs, something which Robinson has been averse to doing throughout his time at Oxford.
When playing a back four, the emphasis has been on the full backs to provide the attacking impetus. Presuming Robinson does not abandon this plan, there would be a lot of pressure on the defensive capabilities of Brown at the back.
Given United's frailties at points last season, it is troubling to imagine Seddon and Brown making up the left side of Oxford's defence heading into the new campaign.
Instead Brown would be better suited playing at left back, where his one against one skills are more suited and he is not so exposed when caught out of position.
Weakness in Build Up
An article in 'Wales Online' last Christmas probably sums up Ciaron Brown's style as a player: "While Brown has shown himself to be an astute defender, it is no secret he struggles at times with the ball at his feet".
It is saying a lot that, after watching Brown for 11 starts last season, that description seems relatively kind.
By Oxford's recent standards, which admittedly are abnormally high, Brown as a central defender is woefully uncomfortable on the ball.
When his on ball statistics are compared with those of Moore, Thorniley, and McNally, Brown finishes bottom of the pile in almost every department.
His passes per 90 (43.6) and passing accuracy (67%) are both considerably lower than Oxford's four other options. Jordan Thorniley averaged nearly 17 more passes per game at a 10% greater accuracy rate, and Moore was even higher.
Brown's inaccurate passes 90 (14.2) and possession losses per 90 (20.6) were also both the lowest totals of Oxford's central defenders last season.
When Oxford play in a back four, there is more pressure on the centre backs to drive the team forward. If one defender is so clearly uncomfortable on the ball, then it is too easy for teams to usher the ball away from Moore and towards United's left hand side, where attacks would be less dangerous because of Brown's more limited ability on the ball.
This is particularly worrying given Brown's tendency to give the ball away, and relying on Brown in a back four could leave Oxford vulnerable to mistakes.
It is Oxford's build up play, though, which would suffer most from Brown's lack of on ball skills.
Whilst Brown does attempt long passes - his average of 8 per 90 is better than both McNally (7.5) and Moore (6.7) - his passing range is limited.
Brown's successful long passes per game is lower than any of Oxford's other four centre backs, indicating that when he does go long, it is usually rushed and inaccurate. Relying on Brown's build up play in a back four would mean a lack of penetration and too many cheap losses of possession.
Ciaron Brown's long pass accuracy (28.4%) is well below Moore (36.2%), McNally (36.5%) and Thorniley (40.8%), further showing Brown's limitations when progressing the ball.
These limitations often lead to Brown playing conservatively, not playing forward so as to not risk losing the ball.
Ciaron Brown's backward pass percentage (16.7%) is nearly 2.5% greater than the next defender on that list, Jordan Thorniley (14.3%). This indicates that Brown is unexpansive in his play, opting to play backwards rather than attempt ambitious, incisive passes.
United, then, lose considerable potency when brown plays at the back. Again, this could potentially be hidden in a back three, where it is harder to press the backline as there is an extra player to cause an overload.
A back four would expose Brown's shortcomings.
Poor Results
Brown at centre back, then, is likely to culminate in Oxford looking more likely to give up chances at the back, less able to keep possession, and less penetrative in that possession.
This would obviously hamper Oxford's play, and looking back to last season, negative trends were already starting to appear when Brown started.
As any football fan will know, a team's result is by no means down to a single player, and there are a multitude of different factors which must be considered. The following data, then, is not particularly scientific and has several flaws, but it is an interesting experiment to see how Brown's arrival impacted United's performances.
In matches when Ciaron Brown has appeared for Oxford, they have earned an average of 1.46 points per game, the second lowest of all Oxford players to have played in at least ten matches last season.
Brown arrived in a side struggling for form, so the low points tally cannot be purely placed on him, but performances did definitely drop off when he came into defence.
In matches when Ciaron Brown played, United's goal difference was -1, the lowest of all players to have played over ten matches.
It means that, on average, Oxford conceded 0.09 more goals than they scored per 90 minutes when Ciaran Brown was playing, making him the only player to have conceded more goals than scored whilst on the pitch.
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| Goals score - goals conceded. (Anthony Forde has a 0 net goal difference) |
Clearly this is not down to Brown alone, but the introduction of the Northern Ireland defender seemed to lead to a drop off in both attacking and defensive output.
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There are some unquantifiable qualities to Brown's signing which make him worthwhile, like that he is left footed.
The loss of McNally means Elliot Moore is free to return to right centre back, where he has always looked more comfortable and his raking diagonal passes are more effective. Starting the season with a left footed centre back in the ranks will ensure Moore can settle into the right side of defence without the chopping and changing which surely hindered his game last season.
Brown's versatility is also key. Whilst not the most expansive left back, he is a more than capable back up, and offers something very different from Seddon.
Finally, Brown is already settled into the club. He won the fans over with his performances at left back and shouldn't be flustered by coming into the team.
This article is not meant to suggest Brown is a bad signing, in fact he makes sense in so many ways.
But if Robinson is to return to the back four that he has hinted at recently, then United have to prioritise signing at least one, if possible two, more centre backs, because United will not get promoted with Ciaron Brown starting in a back four.
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