After a flurry of early contract extensions, Oxford's transfer business has slowed in recent weeks.
Luke McNally followed Mark Sykes and Ryan Williams out of the door, and so far only Ciaron Brown has arrived as a replacement.
In the coming weeks, we'll be detailing which players and positions Oxford can target, using data scouting to analyse how they would fit into the United team and whether they are a possible signing for the Yellows.
First up is arguably the most important area for strengthening; central defence.
Ciaron Brown has signed on a permanent deal following a successful loan spell last season, but this blog certainly has its doubts over his suitability starting in a back four.
Whether Brown is a starter or not, though, Oxford will need to add both quality and depth to their backline if they want to challenge at the top end of the division.
Radar Maps
If your new to this blog then you may be unfamiliar with the radar map, but it is a fairly simple graphic which we'll be using throughout this piece to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of players.
It essentially shows a wheel of key statistics for each defender listed, like this one which we made for Rob Atkinson last year:
The closer the line to the edge, the stronger that player is for that ability, and vice versa.
These statistics are generated by comparing the per 90 stats of that player with all other players from the same position in their league, usually including only players to have played above ten matches.
For Rob Atkinson's graph, the line very close to the edge for 'dribbles' shows us that he ranked very highly for dribbling compared to other players in League One that season, and his lower rank for ball retention showed that he did occasionally give the ball away.
Hopefully that makes sense, so on to the potential signings...
Taylor Moore
Bristol City
25
Possible Transfer Type: Permanent
Having been on loan for parts of five of the last six seasons, it may be viewed as beneficial for both club and player if the 25-year-old moves on this summer.
His statistical profile shows him to be a good fit for Oxford, especially because of his on ball traits.
Moore spent last season on loan at Scottish Premiership side Hearts, and proved to be one of the best ball players in the division, albeit with a small sample size.
He averaged the most key passes (0.9) and the second most dribbles (0.9) per 90 in the division, showing his ability to progress the team forward.
After the loss of McNally, Oxford are missing a player of this ilk, and Taylor Moore would compliment Elliot Moore well as the more progressive ball carrier in a back four, as well as having the potential to cause havoc in the Radio Oxford commentary box.
He also ranks in the top ten for passes per 90, showing how he is comfortable keeping the ball and passing it forward, and his ball retention rank is just above average.
Defensively, he is not a standout player, and prefers to wait for his opponents and mark space rather than engaging in many one against one duels.
He ranks in the bottom five of Scottish Premiership centre backs for tackles, interceptions and clearances, indicating he is not the busiest defender.
He often struggles when faced with more physical players as well, and his ground duels success rate of 51.25% is more than 10% lower than any of Oxford's centre backs who played last season, showing how he can be shrugged off by strong attackers.
Aerially, he is solid without being spectacular, and his aerial duel success rate of 54.35% is also lower than any of Oxford's centre backs last season.
His 6.1 ball recoveries per 90, though, is impressive and shows how, like Elliot Moore, he is skilled at reading the game and dealing with loose balls, even if he is not the strongest when confronted one against one.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taylor_Moore_BCFC.jpg |
Taylor Moore is right footed, but would likely have to play on the left hand side if Oxford played a back four. He could be well suited to playing as the right centre back in a back three, though, where he would be given more licence to progress the ball forward.
Taylor Moore's contract expires next year, so Bristol City may be open to a sale if they can recoup any of the £1.6 million they paid to sign him from Lens back in 2016.
United have history with a centre back going the other way when Rob Atkinson made a £1.6 million move of his own to the Robins, possibly giving United an advantage in negotiations for Moore.
Brandon Cooper
Swansea City
22
Possible Transfer Type: Loan
People make mistakes, it happens.
Yes, Brandon Cooper did spend the second half of last season on loan at Swindon Town, but it was only eight games, and he would still be a good fit for this Oxford United team.
At 22-years-old, Cooper fits the age bracket of players United usually look to recruit from, but it is unlikely Swansea, who rate the defender highly, will be willing to permit a permanent move, so this one is most likely to be a loan transfer.
Cooper has already been on loan to League Two twice, and played every game for Swindon after signing before a knee injury ended his season.
Cooper is left footed, and has some of the on ball traits needed to succeed at Oxford.
His statistical profile shows he ranks highly for passes and key passes, fitting the profile needed for a centre in a back four for Oxford.
His 0.4 chances created per 90 shows how this passing can open up teams and Cooper could be a creative force from the back.
He is surprisingly low for dribbles, indicating he prefers to progress the ball through his passing rather than taking it forward himself.
He is not the complete player yet, and his ball retention leaves something to be desired.
He averaged 12.3 possession losses per 90 in League Two last year, which is around where Oxford's centre backs ranked last season, so with improvement he could definitely adapt to League One standard.
He is solid enough defensively, with above average aerial duels won per game, and at six foot one should not be bullied physically in League One.
His aerial duel success rate, meanwhile, is a very respectable 63.49%, indicating he could be a presence in both boxes.
Cooper is out of contract as well next summer, but Swansea are likely to be looking to extend his deal beyond 2023.
Jeriel Dorsett
Reading
20
Possible Transfer Type: Loan
Jeriel Dorsett is another Championship defender who spent last year on loan in League Two, and though he would be a risky acquisition, he has the potential to flourish in the division above.
Dorsett played over 3000 minutes in 39 starts for Rochdale last season, earning him their young player of the season award, and prompting Reading to trigger a clause in his deal which will now keep him at the club until 2023.
Despite his contract running up next summer, Reading are likely to want to keep their young defender, so a loan move seems most likely.
As a left footed centre back, Dorsett could still be a worthwhile loan purchase for Oxford, and if he was signed alongside a more established central defender, a three at the back would become more of an option for Robinson.
Dorsett's statistical profile makes for an interesting read.
He ranks very highly for tackles (2 per 90), with only Hartlepool's Timi Odusina (2.5) averaging more of centre backs in League Two last season.
But otherwise he appears a relatively passive defender, perhaps a consequence of Rochdale's attacking style which meant they were usually on the front foot.
His ground duel success rate is high at 65.12%, indicating that when he does go in for tackles, he is generally successful, and is not often caught lunging in recklessly.
He is less impressive in the air, although this may again be a result of Rochdale's tendency to play the ball along the ground.
Dorsett was among the lowest fifteen centre backs for aerial duels won per 90 in League Two last season, and was the lowest among Rochdale's defenders.
His aerial duel success rate, meanwhile, was below average at 58.52%. This could make the step up to League One something of a challenge, and means it would be a risk to head into the season with Dorsett as the starting defender.
Playing in an expansive Rochdale side, though, Dorsett was able to exhibit his skills on the ball, Ranking in the top fifteen for passes per 90, and among the highest players for key passes.
He is also adept at bringing the ball out himself with his 0.6 dribbles per 90 putting him 13th of all League Two centre backs to have played over 10 matches last season.
His ball retention was in the lowest 26% of the division's defenders last year, but does show his willingness to attempt risky passes and manoeuvres to progress the ball forward.
His 8 attempted long passes per game shows how he tries to create from the back, and his 35.44% long pass accuracy puts him about in line with Elliot Moore's tally last season (36.2%).
His 12.6 passes completed in the opposition half per 90 shows how he would be a similar player to McNally, pushing forward to create openings.
At just 20-years-old, Dorsett is not the experienced player some may hope Oxford recruit, but he played plenty of minutes last season, and has the pace which may be lacking in a backline with Brown and Moore.
Stuart Findlay
Philadelphia Union
26
Possible Transfer Type: Permanent
You cannot get through a piece about potential Oxford centre backs without hearing Stuart Findlay, and he's back again this summer for what must be Round 27 in Oxford's pursuit of him.
That his statistical profile comes from his last season in the Scottish Premiership (2020-21) probably tells you how successful his two years in Philadelphia have been to date, and why Oxford think they have the chance of signing him again.
Playing in a struggling Kilmarnock side, Findlay's profile does not look outstanding.
He does not engage attackers at a great rate, and is certainly not what would be described as a front foot defender, ranking in the bottom five of all Scottish Premiership centre backs for interceptions and tackles in 2020-21.
His profile does show him to be strong for clearances, again indicating the defensive nature of the Kilmarnock side he played in, but also how Findlay is willing to get himself stuck in when defending.
He is about average for his aerial duels ranking, and at six foot three offers some presence for Oxford's backline.
His profile shows him to be comfortable if not remarkable on the ball, with his high ranking for key passes showing how he can progress the ball with some direct passing.
He does this whilst also being very solid on the ball, and his ball retention ranking shows how he could help Oxford to keep possession.
United are obviously very interested in Findlay and can see many qualities in him which would make him perfectly suited to the side, which is a good job because I can't. Robinson and co seem to be quite good at picking their centre backs, though, so we'll just assume he's quite good.
Daniel Happe
Leyton Orient
23
Possible Transfer Type: Permanent
18 months ago an Oxford United offer for Dan Happe would have seemed unfeasible. Not because of Happe himself, but his price, which would have probably been in the region of £500,000 to £1 million.
After an average start to this season followed by a long-term injury (hence why his profile is from 2020-21), that price will be much lower, particularly as Happe enters the final year of his contract.
Despite the injury, Happe still maintains many of the qualities that would make him a good fit for Oxford, notably that he is still left footed.
Happe took League Two by storm with his on ball skills in 2020-21, and he averaged the second most passes per 90 (58.9) of all League Two centre backs to have played over ten matches.
His rank for key passes is low, suggesting his range of passing is perhaps not of a particularly high quality. Although he did register an average of 5.6 successful long passes per 90, which is significantly more than any of Oxford's centre backs averaged last season.
His 40.81% long pass accuracy is also impressive, and shows he is able to pick out a player across the pitch, giving United more options than just Elliot Moore's diagonal balls.
His ball retention and dribbling ranks are both about average for League Two, and he is unlikely to make a Rob Atkinson esc splash with his ball progression.
He does offer defensive solidity, though, ranking high for tackles and clearances.
His high ranking for fouls, meanwhile, suggests he likes to get tight to the attacker whenever possible and is very aggressive in his play.
This would compliment Elliot Moore well, who prefers to cover the space in behind, and Happe could slide into the left side of defence nicely.
His height (pushing on six foot five) may also be beneficial to an Oxford team who looked poor from set pieces last season.
It is rare to get this combination of height and skill on the ball, although it should be said that Happe is not as aerially dominant as you might expect from a player his size.
At 23, Happe has room for further development, and would likely come at a fairly affordable price.
Will Smith
Harrogate Town
23
Possible Transfer Type: Permanent
Most of the names on this list have followed a similar pattern; good on the ball but not the most active or standout defender.
Harrogate Town's Will Smith offers something slightly different, being first and foremost a defender.
Smith is only 6 foot tall, but is extremely strong in the air.
Last season, he averaged more aerial duels won per 90 (8) than any other League Two centre back to have played over ten matches, although it does come from a small sample size.
He also ranks highly for clearances, and his 5.4 ball recoveries per 90 show his strength at reading the game and clearing danger.
This is all in a relatively defensive Harrogate Town side, so it is impressive that he also ranks fairly highly for passes per 90, indicating he is comfortable on the ball, and could adapt to United's style of play.
Injury prevented him playing for much of last season, and Smith would be another one who is probably better as a back up to start, but he'd certainly add some defensive grit to this Oxford team.
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