Oxford's start to this season has been extremely underwhelming, and tomorrow's match suddenly has much more riding on it than people would have expected when the fixture list came out.
Both Oxford and Cheltenham are on four points after five games, and the sides will be desperate to get their seasons off and running.
Cheltenham come off the back of their first victory of the season over Exeter, whilst Oxford haven't won in any of their last three matches and have lost both of their away matches this season.
A trip to Gloucestershire will not be simple, but Cheltenham's defensive record can give hope to an Oxford side who have underperformed in front of goal so far this season.
Cheltenham's open play expected goals against of 3 is the fifth lowest in League One, indicating that they are difficult to break down, but more encouraging is the 50 open play shots they conceded, the seventh most in the division.
This shows that Oxford will have opportunities to get efforts in on goal, and this may be a chance for the likes of Brannagan and Taylor to start firing.
Cheltenham have also seemingly been willing to give up territory to their opponents having averaged just 43.7% possession in the league so far, again the fifth lowest in the division.
Cheltenham Town are also joint third for average action time in their defensive third, with 34% of matches being played in that region.
This will offer hope to Robinson's side who should be able to sustain attacking moves if they can get a foothold in the game.
A lot of teams Oxford have come up against have played in this manner, and Oxford have not been able to break them down, but United are coming off a performance against Crystal Palace which should renew some of the belief in their quick passing moves.
The likes of Bate and Brannagan should thrive on the high quantities of possession, and if Oxford start at a high tempo then they have very chance of dominating this game.
What is even more encouraging for Oxford, though, is Cheltenham's record from set pieces.
Cheltenham's set piece expected goals (xG) conceded sits at 2.13, by far the highest in League One.
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| Oxford and Cheltenham are polar opposites in their success at defending set plays |
Their 25 shots conceded from set pieces is also the third highest in the division.
They have only conceded a single goal from set plays this year (not including penalties) but there is clearly a chance for Oxford to cause havoc if they can get their set plays right.
This offers Oxford a different route to goals if they cannot strike the right balance in their build up play.
The chance to get goals from both open play and set pieces should offer encouragement to Robinson's side that they can go out and attack, and playing away from home may mean slightly more opportunities to get in behind their opponents.
After three defeats from three to start the season and a demolition to Exeter in the Carabao Cup, Cheltenham are still under a bit of pressure to get some results, and after they registered their first three points of the season they will likely look to put Oxford on the back foot from the start.
Cheltenham's 4.37 open play xG scored is the eighth highest in League One, showing that they do pose a threat going forward, but not one which Oxford should shy away from.
United's defensive system has been excellent this season, but they should be open to the possibility of conceding goals on the counter against Cheltenham if it provides an opportunity for them to attack at the other end.
The likes of Cambridge and Lincoln came to the Kassam with no real attacking intent, but it will be different against the Robins, and this should give Oxford more of an opportunity to get in behind their hosts as they commit bodies forward.
This should help Oxford to get back some of that attacking fluency that they had last season.
United's direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball upfield in metres per second) is currently at 1.27m/s, well below last season's record of 1.49m/s, showing how they have been slow in their build up play and unable to break the lines at pace.
Whilst Cheltenham will sit back and allow Oxford possession and territory, their tendency to throw men forward in search of goals themselves will give Oxford more space to operate in and hopefully allow for the quicker passing moves that have made them so dangerous over the past few years.
The combination of possession and territory but also a chance to attack quickly in transitions should give Oxford the chance to rediscover their attacking urgency.
Cheltenham's poor set piece defending stats also show Oxford they have another route to goal if they can apply consistent pressure to their opponents.
Cheltenham will provide threat of their own, and they should not be underestimated as an opponent, but their style of play should give confidence to an Oxford side who are desperately short of exactly that right now.
Robinson's side must see this as their chance to kickstart their goalscoring this season, and they must not fear the threat of Cheltenham on the break.
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