Where can Oxford improve after their first games?

A season is not decided in two matches, and it would be ludicrous to try to gain valid conclusions from the opening games alone. 

However, Oxford's performances have certainly underwhelmed some who were hoping for their star studded attack to show they are serious promotion candidates. 

A magical moment from Tyler Goodrham saved an otherwise stale attacking performance against Cambridge, and whilst United were solid defensively against Derby, they seemed to run out of ideas going forward as the game progressed. 

That has been the story of Oxford's first two matches: strong at the back but a lack of penetration going forward, particularly through open play. 

Against Cambridge they were very reliant on chances from set pieces - a valid route of attack, but not one which has dominated Oxford's attacking plans in recent seasons.

That game was the first time Robinson's side have registered more shots from set pieces (8) than from open play (7) in nearly a year and a half when they lost at Northampton back in March 2021. 

It is even longer since they have had more set piece shots than open play efforts at home, going back 21 months to a 0-0 draw with Crewe in November 2020. 

United looked encouragingly strong from their set plays, but their reliance on them speaks of a team who are struggling to find their creative groove in the opening weeks. 

Only four League One sides have registered a fewer open play xG than Oxford from their first two matches. 

30% of United's xG has come from set plays so far, the seventh highest ratio in the division, and double last season's record of 15%, which was the lowest in the league that year. 

Of course with such a small sample size, these numbers are likely to be exaggerated, especially as it has been a fairly tough opening two fixtures. 

However, Robinson's side have looked lethargic building up, and will need to find their rhythm sooner rather than later if they are to challenge near the top of the division. 

In order to do this, we've highlighted a few areas which have been holding United back in the first two fixtures. 

Passive Passing

Oxford had 56% of the possession against Cambridge, but struggled to make inroads into the opposition third. 

This is partly because their passing was often too passive, going from side to side to keep possession, without having the purpose which has made United so dangerous over the last couple of seasons. 

Both Cambridge and Derby were well organised, so it is no surprise that United could not brake through easily, but it is still interesting to see how slow they have been in possession over those two games. 

Only MK Dons (10.91) have a higher average sequence time (the average length of time a period of possession lasts for a team) than Oxford (8.80). 

That total is also considerably more than last season's average of 7.58 seconds per sequence, indicating that United are holding the ball for longer without making as much progress upfield. 

This is also shown in their passes per sequence, which is the third highest in League One at 3.3 and again higher than last season's average of 2.94. 

This has led to United's attacks being slow paced and easy to defend, without enough quick moves to catch their opponents off guard. 

United's direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball upfield in metres per second) is the seventh slowest in League One at 1.23 m/s, and again slower than United last season (1.49 m/s). 

This has helped United keep possession, but meant that they have been less dangerous going forward, and has often meant that their moves breakdown before they can pose any real danger. 

Oxford's attacking play has been considerably slower than last season in the opening two matches.

Despite all of Oxford's possession, they have only registered one 'build up attack' (an open play sequence that contains more than 10 passes and ends with a shot or touch in the opposition box), indicating that the passing sequences are not getting them into dangerous positions as much as they would like. 

Their rates of 'build up attacks', then, is 0.5 per game, compared to 1.59 per match last year. 

This does not mean united have to start hitting passes long, but they have definitely got to be more penetrative in their possession. 

Low Tempo of Pressing

One element of Oxford's game which really stood out last season was their pressing, but they have not been able to bring such a high intensity in their opening games this time round. 

Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) is a metric which measures how many passes a team allows their opposition in the oppositions third before a defensive action (e.g., foul, block, tackle) is made. This gives a measure of how high a team press irrespective of the possession they or their opponents have. 

Last season, Oxford's PPDA was 11.4, the fourth lowest in League One, indicating they allowed their opposition very little time before making a challenge to win the ball back. 

This time, they are third bottom of that particular table, with a PPDA of 18.5. 

Again, the small sample size means those numbers are far greater than you would expect them to be by the end of the season, but it is still noteworthy that United have not been pressing as fiercely or successfully in their opening matches. 

United used the press as a real tool for attacks last season, averaging 1.17 shots per game from high turnovers. They've managed a total one shot from high turnovers across the two games this season, as the early season tempo has certainly been slower than United would like. 

Lopsided attacking

It is no surprise that United have tried to make the most of a talent like Josh Murphy, particularly against Cambridge. His quality has shown as he has registered the most xG of any Oxford player this season (0.14). 

However, their attempts to free the right winger have led to a disproportionate number of attacks being generated from this angle, and the left wing being virtually abandoned. 

This lopsided attacking may be preventing Oxford from cutting through teams as they have in recent years. 

Last season, Oxford's attacks were fairly evenly spread out across the pitch, but this season 45% of their attacks have come down the right hand side, compared to 23% down the middle and 32% on the left. 

Oxford's attack zones in the opening matches - courtesy of Whoscored.com

This has meant that United have lost a lot of their threat from the left wing, with just 14% of their shots coming from the left hand side this season (16th in the division).

Where Oxford's shots have come from this season - whoscored.com

Oxford's struggles to create down the left are further shown by their lack of possession compared to their opponents in this region. 

Last season, United averaged 56% possession down the left wing (attacking third only), but this year United have had just 42% of the possession down the left wing, and this has meant they have been unable to create from these regions. 

Opta's possession zone metric - courtesy of Opta Analyst

The above image shows that United have lost a lot of possesion down the left wing in the first few games compared to last season, and this has meant they have been somewhat predictable.

This is surely a problem which will be resolved, but they will need to diversify their attacks more if they want to break down defences with more regularity. 

Less Individual Drive

The final point is less of a tactical flaw than simply a struggle of individual players. 

Excluding Goodrham's mazey run and finish, United's players have generally been more conservative on the pitch. 

Oxford averaged 5.7 dribbles per 90 last season, the eighth most in League One, but that is down to 4.5 so far this term, 15th in the League.

Opta defines a carry as any time when a play moves with the ball five metres or more. 

So far this campaign, Oxford have averaged 8.72 carries per player, compared to 10.11 per player last season, further emphasizing how they have lacked individual confidence and drive.  

The same is true of United's passing, as they averaged 10.6 key passes last term to just 8 so far this year. This suggests Oxford players are not progressing the ball with as much confidence or urgency as you would hope. 

As players get more minutes, confidence to do this will surely grow. 

...

Often the opening league games can feel like an extension of pre-season, and especially with a squad which is not yet complete, we should give some time for performances to improve. 

United certainly do need to improve though. 

They've been defensively robust, but nowhere near their free flowing attacking standards. 

Fortunately for them they've already got three points on the board, but this team can be better than the opening  performances suggest. 

Fortunately they've still got 44 games to show that.