Oxford are poor after half time, but it's the periodic lapses that have hurt their playoff charge

Oxford eventually beat Plymouth to keep their playoff dream alive on Saturday, but it wasn’t without a scare early in the second half.

The visitors dominated the 20-minute period after the interval, and deservedly got themselves back into the game via Nial Ennis’s 65^th minute equaliser.

The goal brought Oxford back to life, and they quickly restored their lead through Taylor who would later make it comfortable with his second of the game and 17^th of the season, sending Oxford to 5^th in the table.

The blip at the start of the second half, though, is more than that.

Just four days earlier, Oxford had an even stronger chance to cement their position in the playoffs against relegation threatened AFC Wimbledon.

With other results benefiting Oxford, they held a 1-0 lead at the hour mark before a remarkable capitulation following James Henry’s instinctive red card which saw the game turned on its head in the space of two minutes.

The result was an opportunity missed and, though nobody underestimated the physical and psychological damage of Henry’s red card, United’s reaction to Wimbledon drawing level was meagre and there was little by the way of a comeback after that.    

Oxford fans, then, could not be blamed for fearing the worst when Ennis brought Plymouth level on Saturday and, although it did not prove decisive this time, Oxford have consistently shown themselves to be vulnerable after the break.

Instances against Portsmouth and Doncaster can be used as evidence of this, where sloppy goals within ten minutes of the restart cost them vital points in the race for the playoffs.

Wigan Athletic and Shrewsbury scored at similar times, only for Oxford to peg them back.

But the data suggests that poor starts to the second period are not what are really costing Oxford, nor are there any particular time frames where Oxford concede regularly - except the rough and tumble late on perhaps. 

Oxford have only conceded seven goals between minutes 45-60, which is a record bettered by only six teams in League One.

It is also notable that Oxford have scored ten goals during this period, meaning that they have generally won this phase of the match, even if it may not feel like it.

Moreover, it is the consistent periodic lapses in Oxford’s matches which have cost them in the race for the playoffs and is the reason Oxford remain playoff chasers, rather than being chased themselves or even looking further up the table.

Robinson’s team specialise in tight matches.

Nine of Oxford’s twenty League wins have been won by a single goal, whilst an additional five (that’s 70% overall) have been won by just two goals.

Similarly, six of Oxford’s 16 losses have come by a one goal margin, and though a greater number (10) have been decided by two goals, Oxford are yet to lose a game by more than two this season – only three other League One teams can boast such a record.

And further under the surface, but there are a multitude of statistics that back up how tight Oxford's games are too.

Oxford have led 30% of their matches at half time, been trailing in 27% and drawing in 43%.

They have scored first in 45% of their matches and conceded first in 43% of them.

They are leading for an average of 25 minutes per game and trailing for 24 minutes.

Average Match in 2020-21 season

What is clear, then, is that Oxford matches are usually very close.

It means that short lapses in concentration have major consequences with games regularly being decided by these periods of play – such as just after the break.

Four of the six league matches in which Oxford have conceded in the period 45-60 minutes have resulted in defeat.

United have also lost six of the nine matches in which they have conceded in the final fifteen minutes, once again indicating that the games being so tight mean that a goal at a crucial time – late on in this case – is often enough to decide the contest.

These tight results are intriguing given only four teams (two of which are the already relegated Bristol Rovers and Swindon) have drawn less games than Oxford.

Oxford matches also have an average of 2.82 total goals per game, the fifth highest in the league and highest of teams in the top ten.

Total goals per game of the current top ten

They are always tight encounters, but they are never cagey, and one team often gets the deciding goal.

The likely reason, then, that it feels as though Oxford have so many periods of lost concentration, is these periods simply matter much more this year than they did last season.

In the 2019-20 season, Oxford won nearly as many of their matches by 3+ goals (8) as they did by a one or two goal margin (9).

Similarly, they spent nearly double the time (32.2 minutes) leading as they did trailing (19.9 minutes).

Average Match in 2019-20

Oxford cannot afford to drift out of games this year because when they do it usually costs them points.

Those points are the difference between a playoff chasing team and a team going for automatic promotion.

Had United won just two of the matches which they have conceded needless goals in this season – take Doncaster and Northampton being two obvious examples where Oxford were in the ascendency before and after conceding goals – they would sit third in the division.

These tight margins are also likely to continue into any playoff battle if Oxford reach that stage, so they will need to eradicate these spells from their game if they would stand any chance of progressing into the final.

They got away with conceding against Plymouth, but letting teams score needless goals - whether that is after half time or at any other point - has too often been the downfall for Oxford this season.