Analysing Form and Fixtures to see who will make the playoffs

Three victories in a row have propelled Oxford into the playoffs for the first time this season.

Their victory over Gillingham has simultaneously taken out one competitor, and it now looks like only those in 10th and above still harvest any chance of making the top six.

The question now becomes: Can Oxford maintain their position?

We have looked at the form and fixtures of Oxford and their playoff rivals to see who is best positioned to finish in the top six.

Key

Below is a little example of how the information will be set up, and what key terminology means.

Team (current league position)

PPG from last Six Matches (Ranking in League One) – points per game from the last six matches

PPG from last Ten Matches (Ranking in League One) – points per game from last ten matches

PPG of Remaining Opposition – Remaining opposition’s points per game, adjusted for home and away fixtures.

Fixture difficult difference – The difference in adjusted PPG of all the fixtures a team has played this season and their remaining matches. A positive difference means their remaining opponents are easier than who they have already played this season, and vice versa.

Remaining Fixtures – Bottom half team, Playoff chasing rival, Other top half team.

 

Lincoln City (4^th)

PPG from last Six Matches: 1.33 (12^th)

PPG from last Ten Matches: 1.2 (14^th)

PPG of Remaining Opposition: 1.48

Fixture Difficulty Difference: -0.13

Remaining Fixtures:

Burton Albion (a)

Hull City (h)

Shrewsbury Town (a)

Peterborough United (a)

Charlton Athletic (a)

AFC Wimbledon (h)

 

Even the most optimistic of Lincoln fans might have given up on their automatic promotion hopes.

They are ten points off the pace with just six games remaining – albeit with a game in hand on all three sides above them.

Focus must now turn to ensuring a playoff position, where they have a four-point buffer to Portsmouth in seventh.

The fixtures, though, mean it won’t be plain sailing for Lincoln.

They play both Peterborough and Hull, currently occupying the top two spots in League One, and four of their six remining matches are away from home.

They also play Charlton Athletic which could drag them back into the playoff scrap with a defeat.

Their midtable form over the last six and ten matches doesn’t help either, and it could end up nervy for Lincoln should they miss out on points against Burton on Tuesday.  

 

Blackpool (5^th)

PPG from Last Six Matches: 2 (5^th)

PPG from last Ten Matches: 2 (2^nd)

PPG of Remaining Opposition: 1.17

Fixture Difficulty Difference: +0.23

Remaining Fixtures:

Rochdale AFC (a)

Shrewsbury Town (h)

Sunderland AFC (a)

Northampton Town (a)

Doncaster Rovers (h)

Bristol Rovers (h)

 

Blackpool boosted their playoff hopes with an impressive victory over Sunderland on Saturday, and they now look well positioned to keep hold of their spot.

They have the second-best form in the league over the last ten matches, and their overall fixture difficulty is easier than the matches they have already played. 

Blackpool are the most in-form team of the playoff chasing pack.

They have been playing catch-up in terms of matches for a while, and they still have six games to play over a short stretch of time, which could hurt them.

Having beaten Sunderland already, though, they have no fixtures to be scared of given their form.

 

Oxford United (6^th)

PPG from last Six Matches: 2 (4^th)

PPG from last Ten Matches: 1.5 (11^th)

PPG of Remaining Opposition: 1.13

Fixture Difficulty Difference: +0.27

Remaining Fixtures:

AFC Wimbledon (a)

Plymouth Argyle (h)

Shrewsbury Town (a)

Burton Albion (h) 

 

If the old saying that you would rather have points on the board is to ring true, Oxford are in pole position.

They are also in the top five in terms of recent form in League One, but when extended over a longer ten game period, they drop back to midtable.

What will give more hope, though, is that only MK Dons have an easier set of remaining fixtures than Oxford based off weighted points per game, and United’s Fixture Difficulty Difference of +0.27 is bettered only by Ipswich in League One.

Oxford, along with Ipswich, have the easiest remaining fixtures of playoff chasing teams based off weighted points per game.

Oxford also picked up maximum points from all the reverses of their remaining fixtures.

Their last three matches are all against sides with little to play for, so they have a real chance of staying in the top six, with recent form and fixtures painting a positive picture for Us fans.

 

Portsmouth (7^th)

PPG from last six matches: 1.67 (9^th)

PPG from last ten matches: 1.3 (13^th)

PPG of Remaining opposition: 1.14

Fixture Difficulty Difference: +0.26  

Remaining Opponents:

Swindon Town (a)

Bristol Rovers (h)

Accrington Stanley (a)

AFC Wimbledon (a)

Accrington Stanley (h)

 

Portsmouth have dropped out of the playoff places after a run of no wins in three, as the new manager honeymoon for the Cowley brothers has worn off.

They too, though, are helped by a gentle late fixture list.

Their remaining opposition’s adjusted PPG is among the lowest in the league, and none of their last five opponents are in the top half.

Portsmouth have so far been strong against lower league opposition, picking up 1.63 PPG, so will be hopeful of another positive return.

It is in their hands and if they can find a formulae to beat Accrington - who they play twice in their last three gameweeks - they will probably consider themselves favourites for sixth.

 

Charlton Athletic (8^th)

PPG from last Six Matches: 2 (6^th)

PPG from last Ten Matches: 1.9 (4^th)

PPG of Remaining opposition: 1.64

Fixture Difficulty Difference: -0.30

Remaining Fixtures:

Plymouth Argyle (a)

Peterborough United (h)

Crewe Alexandra (h)

Accrington Stanley (a)

Hull City (h)

Lincoln City (h)

 

Charlton are the opposite of Portsmouth.

Their new manager bounce has resulted in them becoming one of the form teams in the division over both the short and long term.

They have also got a series of difficult games coming up – the second hardest in League One in fact, and by far the hardest of the playoff chasing teams.

Charlton's remaining opponents pick up on average 0.3 more weighted points per game than the teams they have already played this season. On the other end, Ipswich, Oxford and Portsmouth all hold easier ends to the season. 

Though it may be contradictory, them playing four of their last six matches at home is also a burden.

They have collected 68% of their points on their travels this season at a rate of 1.86 PPG, compared to just 1.26 at home.

Charlton are one of the few playoff chasing sides with genuine playoff chasing form over an extended period of time, yet they also hold some of the hardest matches in the league, meaning it will require something special from them.

The form and experience in their team, though, means you can expect them to be in and around the playoffs right till the last.

 

Ipswich Town (9^th)

PPG from last Six Matches: 1.17 (16^th)

PPG from Last Ten Matches: 1.1 (18^th) 

PPG of Remaining Opposition: 1.13

Fixture difficulty Difference: +0.28

Remaining Fixtures:

Northampton Town (a)

AFC Wimbledon (h)

Swindon Town (a)

Shrewsbury Town (a)

Fleetwood Town (h)

 

Another change of manager for a playoff chaser and this one seems to have had the worst effect of the lot.

Ipswich have crashed out from one of the playoff favourites to genuine outsiders after below par form in recent weeks.

They will be boosted, though, by playing five teams in the bottom half in their remaining matches.

Their fixture difficulty difference of +0.28 shows that their remaining games are the easiest in the league compared to the 41 matches they have already played.

Ipswich, however, have found issues when approaching games against the supposed lesser teams this year, and their next three matches will all be against sides fighting for their lives, with no dead rubber opposition until it might be too late.

A ruthless streak will be needed if they are to reach the playoffs, with at least four wins from five required to stand a chance.

 

Doncaster Rovers (10^th)

PPG from last Six Matches: 0.5 (23^rd)

PPG from last Ten Matches: 0.5 (24^th)

PPG of remaining opposition: 1.55

Fixture Difficulty Difference: -0.19

Remaining Fixtures:

Accrington Stanley (a)

Fleetwood Town (h)

Peterborough United (a)

Rochdale AFC (h)

Blackpool (a)

Peterborough United (h)

 

Even accounting for Doncaster’s win against Shrewsbury last Saturday, they are comfortably one of the worst teams in the division in terms of recent form.

They rank 24^th in points accumulated over the last ten matches, leading to a remarkable drop from automatic promotion chasing to playoff outsiders.

Their remaining fixtures are not easy either, with Blackpool and Peterborough (twice) on the agenda.

Doncaster, therefore, have neither form or fixtures, and their chances of reaching the playoffs look minimal despite their games in hand.

For a deeper dive into the underlying statistics behind the playoff chasing teams, check out this playoff simulation from last month, which looked closer at the underlying numbers for every side and have so far been relatively accurate in its predictions.