To what extent are Oxford's midfield to blame for their poor form?

Robinson once again referenced Oxford's lack of power in midfield following their defeat to Accrington, a display which all but condemns his side to a sixth straight season in League One next year. 

It has been obvious that United lack drive through the middle and the absence of McGuane has been a key part of that.

Yet, with the likes of Lee, Henry and an improving Mark Sykes, Oxford don't lack creativity in the middle third. 

Robinson has started an attacking trio in midfield for his last three games, and - despite success against Lincoln - that has also failed to bring much more out of his side. 

Are the midfield, then, truly to blame for Oxford's poor run of form, or are there more factors to Oxford's season faltering. 

We have looked through two sets of data - that from Oxford's 16 game run where they lost just once in matchweeks 17-35, and the 14 game since - to analyse what has changed for Oxford.

Less possession 

Oxford have struggled to dictate play in recent matches, often playing into the hands of the opposition. 

Both Blackpool and Accrington came to the Kassam and controlled proceedings, whilst Northampton, a seemingly inferior opponent, were able to keep United to only 344 passes - well below Oxford's season average of 405. 

In this case, the midfield must take some accountability. 

In Oxford's last fourteen games, they have averaged 53% possession. 

Whilst still above half of the game, it is considerably lower than the 57% possession they averaged between 1st December and 14th February during their strong run. 

It is not, however, as straightforward as the midfield not keeping the ball as well. 

United have averaged the exact same passing accuracy in the recent losing run as their winning one prior to that, and other passing metrics are also similar. 

This points to a team who are struggling to stamp their authority onto games, rather than one failing to keep the ball. 

There have been examples this season of Oxford becoming seemingly unable to pass the ball 10 yards to each other - their 2-0 defeat to Crewe back in November springs to mind - but that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. 

Teams are stifling Oxford's game, making it difficult for them to play out in the way they would like to.

The decrease in possession, then, is not entirely down to Oxford's midfield, but rather the whole side losing their control over matches. 

Pressing 

One element which could easily lead to the tempo of matches changing is the high press, which has been at the forefront of most United victories of late. 

Interestingly, Oxford's high press has not just remained constant throughout their season, but it has actually increased since the end of their winning run. 

Oxford have averaged more attempted tackles in the oppositions half (8.46) in the last 14 games than they did in the 16 prior to them (6.46). 

They also made more blocks in the opposing team's half  (4.53 to 3.53) and the number of interceptions also stayed high. 

This indicates that Oxford remain keen to win the ball high up the pitch, and the numbers show that they have been successful in doing so.   

Between matchweek 17-35, Oxford won the ball back in the opposition half on an average of once every 13 minutes. 

Since then, it has dropped to once every 9 minutes, indicating a much fiercer press despite the failing results.  

It has been successful at times too - like in their win against Doncaster, where they won the ball back 20 times in the opposing half - but it could be a by-product of Oxford's lack of control in matches. 

Oxford have started most of their games extremely brightly in recent months but teams seem to be adjusting to play against this. 

Against stronger opposition, teams can ride the early press from Oxford and benefit when they tire. 

During Oxford's last ten games, 77% of their goals have come in the first half of matches. 

It indicates a strong start, but also that Oxford are unable to push on in the latter stages of matches.

When playing weaker opposition, which they generally did between matchweek 17-35, Oxford had more possession more often, so did not need to press high to win the ball back as much. 

Now teams have stopped Oxford keeping the ball, there is an added requirement to press high, causing them to tire, lose shape and disrupt the rhythm of the match.

Some sides have realised that they can counter press Oxford too. 

Between matchweeks 17-35, Oxford's opponents averaged 5.69 ball recoveries in Oxford's half per 90. 

In the matches since then, the number has massively increased to 8.31 ball recoveries. 

There has been no change of ethos from Oxford's pressing, then, but teams are simply countering it in a way they didn't during the mid season. 

For all Robinson's strengths as a manager, he has not yet found a way to combat teams who press Oxford. 

The midfield have not helped proceedings, but the biggest dynamic shift in their recent dip in form has been an increase in tempo across the entire pitch, limiting how Oxford can control their build up play. 

Poor finishing 

Oxford averaged 2.06 goals per game between matchweeks 17-35, but have dropped significantly to 0.71 since. 

Certainly Oxford have struggled to create from midfield without the likes of McGuane and Henry at times, but for a team who average 1.68 expected goals per game - the second best in League One - their return in the goals column recently is minute. 

Their conversion rate has more than halved from 14% in the midseason to only 5% in their last fourteen matches. 

Their shooting accuracy has also dropped from 36% to 34%, and they are averaging only 4.5 shots on target per match compared to nearly 5 during the earlier matches. 

The number of shots per game, though, has remained consistent at roughly 14 per match through both phases, indicating that Oxford's chance creation has not dropped as much as it may seem. 

They are generating chances from better positions, too, with a higher proportion of their shots coming from inside the area in recent months than when they were winning more regularly. 

Oxford may lack creativity from midfield, but there is not much they can do about the attackers wayward shooting of late. 

Forward thinking 

Much has been made of Oxford's lack of drive from midfield without McGuane, looking unable to penetrate teams through the middle. 

Passing wise, however, this does not seem to be the case. 

Although there has been a slight drop off in forward pass percentage - 68% average between matchweek 17-35 and 66% since - there has not been much change in Oxford's approach play. 

Another key indicator is key passes per game. 

This measures the number of passes made which result in a good chance being created, often indicative of the number of forward and creative passes a team makes. 

This too has remained relatively consistent through both phases for Oxford. 

During their strong mid season it was at 10.92 key passes per game, and has dropped only slightly to 10.69 in the matches since. 

It is the driving runs from midfield, though, that have been missing recently. 

The stats, however, suggest this is not as pronounced as some may think. 

Oxford United in League One

It is worth mentioning, though, that Oxford's dribbles from midfield between matchweek 17-35 came almost exclusively from McGuane. 

If we compare the average dribbles from midfield from before McGuane's injury, 3.14 per game, and afterwards, 2 per game, we see a more noticeable difference. 

This signifies what the initial comparisons can't - that Oxford lost their major ball carrier from midfield and haven't really recovered since. 

... 

What is clear from all this data is that Oxford's poor run of form has been caused by multiple reasons. 

The lack of power in midfield that Robinson cites is certainly one element, but statistics wise Oxford actually remain relatively consistent in their forward play from the middle. 

What is more evident is the lack of control Oxford have in recent matches. 

Games are being played at a higher tempo, teams are pressing Oxford more and it is harder for United to build their attacks through possession. 

There is a reason Oxford have only won two matches against top half sides this term - Robinson and his whole squad have not adapted to playing better teams who look to counter the way they play. 

Add to this that Oxford's finishing has been extremely poor and we get a picture that the midfield cannot take all the blame for poor performances, even if they certainly could do more to help Oxford get back on track.