Oxford, Portsmouth and Charlton: Analysing the three teams vying for sixth

Tuesday was the first free midweek Oxford have had since mid-October.

Finally, a chance to take a break.

Not a chance.

What unfolded whilst Oxford fans were nervously peering at their phones on the sofas was one of the most dramatic days in this EFL season.

Intermingled between a 3-3 draw, 2-2 draw and 5-2 victory were four results which had a huge bearing on Oxford’s season.

Lincoln and Blackpool all but cemented their top six status with wins, but the real drama happened elsewhere.

Accrington squandered a 2-0 lead against Portsmouth, before Marquis scored a bicycle kick winner in the 91^st minute, only for him to complete his hattrick but at the wrong end, as his own goal drew Accrington level in the 95^th minute.

Charlton also grabbed what they thought was a late winner against Crewe, only for their opponents to drew level for a second time with Owen Doyle’s 96^th minute equaliser.

Oxford were in it, out of it, and then right back in it again in an evening full of emotions.

The aftermath of it all is simple: the final playoff spot now surely comes down to three teams, Oxford, Portsmouth and Charlton. 

Here, then, is an in depth look at the statistics behind the three remaining challengers to look at who is the most likely– or deserving – of the final playoff spot.

Portsmouth

A win against Accrington would have been massive for a Portsmouth team whose form has fallen off a cliff since Danny Cowley’s new manager bounce wore off.

It wasn’t to be and now although they are in pole position, there is huge pressure on the last two games of the season.

Their points per game over the last eight matches is 0.19 points lower than it has been this season – the second biggest drop off in League One’s top ten. 

Of the three playoff chasing teams, however, Portsmouth have been by far the most consistently dominant during their matches.

Pompey have spent 1310 minutes leading matches this season, the third highest in League One behind only the top two. 

They are defensively solid as well.

Their 11.1 shots conceded per match is the lowest of the three playoff chasing teams and among the lowest in League One.

Their average expected goals against per game total is also better than the two sides chasing them, at 1.29, the joint sixth best in the division.

Portsmouth’s defensive solidity, though, is undermined by their inability to put teams away.

38.6% of Portsmouth’s matches are decided by a single goal, indicating that despite the fact they lead for most of the game, they are unable to decisively finish matches.

They also have problems when they do not score the first goal.

Portsmouth have gone behind 20 times this season, and recovered on only five of those occasions, giving them an equalising rate of just 25% - among the lowest in the division.

This has meant that, like Accrington in the week, Portsmouth become nervy late on in encounters.

Portsmouth have conceded 11 goals in the last fifteen minutes of matches and scored only ten in this same time frame.

Their nervousness could be decisive in what will surely be tense affairs against AFC Wimbledon and Accrington.

Portsmouth, though, are also very capable of playing an attrition game style.

Their 75 combined yellow and red cards this season is the seventh highest in League One, while they rank in the same position for fouls per game (14).

They are equally strong in the air, with the fourth highest aerial duels won per game total (28) in League One.

This physicality offers Cowley’s team a different dimension to attack teams and means they can find a way around sides when they make it difficult to play through them.

This will help in their last two matches and makes them just about favourites for sixth spot.

Oxford United

Oxford have picked up fifteen points from their last eight games, making them the fourth best League One team in the form books.

Robinson’s style has always been to play expansive and open football, which is reflected in the numbers which say Oxford are one of the most attacking teams in the division.

Oxford average 1.73 expected goals per 90 in League One, trailing only Sunderland and indicating they create some of the best scoring chances in the division.

Oxford also average 13.9 shots per game (2^nd behind Accrington in League One) and 5 shots on target per match (2^nd behind Peterborough).

Robinson has Oxford playing with the most freedom of the playoff hopefuls too, with their 6 dribbles per game and 10.3 key passes per game both the highest of the three sides – the latter is a league leading total indicates a willingness to progressively pass through the lines.

Robinson’s side, however, rely heavily on possession by means of breaking teams down.

They average the third most possession in League One at 52.8% and their 277 shorts passes per match is also among the highest in the League.

At times, teams who have pressed or stifled Oxford’s game have got the better of them, whilst Oxford often fail to convert their attacking numbers into goals which means they are often punished for lapses in concentration.

They are also considerably less aggressive in their defensive play than the teams around them, averaging less tackles per game (15.1) than both Charlton and Portsmouth and relying on more clearances (20.5) per match indicating that teams are sometimes able to create chances with little opposition.

Oxford are a wildcard in this group, and whilst Portsmouth have been more consistent, Oxford have more of a potential to blow teams away than their playoff rivals.

Charlton

If Oxford prefer possession and attacking prowess, whilst Portsmouth are stronger defensively and more physical, then Charlton are somewhere in the middle of that, a sort of hybrid team.

They average just over half of the game in terms of possession (50.6%) and have a mid-table passing accuracy (72.6%) yet are also more than capable in the air with an aerial duels won per game ranking of fifth in League One.

The stats suggest they are more of a back foot team than their rivals, averaging the most shots conceded per match (12) and the least shots taken (11.3) of the three teams.

Those stats alone tell a story of generally tight encounters, in which Charlton’s multiple methods of playing often allow them to come out on top.

Their defensive numbers, however, show them to be somewhat reliant on strong goalkeeping.

Goalkeeper Ben Amos has a save percentage of 70.8% and he is forced into 2.8 saves per 90, the 8^th most in League One.

Charlton also have the highest expected goals against figure of these three sides, at 1.41.

Their backfoot approach is further indicated by an expected goals scored total of 1.32 per game, putting them 16^th in League One.

Charlton, however, are strong at not giving away cheap goals.

Their ten goals conceded from set pieces is bettered by seven teams, but they include the top four teams in the division.

They have also only conceded two opta defined counter attacking goals this season.

Charlton may allow teams to get chances, but they are able to put bodies on the line and then adapt to the situation attacking wise.

This is an extremely useful trait to have when playing in tight games at the end of the season.

It is technically in Charlton’s hands to finish in the top six, but with Lincoln, Hull and Accrington still to come, they are relying on absorbing a lot of pressure and winning by the odd goal.