Generation Ox

In the shape of Atkinson and Ruffels , Oxford have lost two bedrocks at the heart of their defence and will be requiring somewhat of a rebuild going into the next season. Unlike following the departure of Curtis Nelson, there is no Rob Dickie ready to wheel off the conveyor belt, nor is there a Rob Atkinson who was ready for when Dickie left.   Hopes are high for 21-year-old Luke McNally, but he looks set to be made to wait another year for his time to shine. Instead, Oxford will need to delve into the transfer market for a replacement.   What are Radar Graphs?  In this article, we will be using a statistical profiling technique we call radar graphs. This is a method used to rank how often and/or effectively a player performs a particular action (e.g., dribbling) compared to other players from their position in the same league.  This data is then put in a radar graph, with each line representing a particular skill. The further out the line goes, the stronger th...

Perhaps amid the whirlwind of emotions that was Tuesday night we had forgotten that Oxford have only won two of the 18 games they played against top ten sides in League One prior to this. Perhaps we also forgot Blackpool have won nine of their matches against the same set of sides.  Perhaps we chose not to remember.  The truth was when Oxford walked off the Kassam pitch on Tuesday night after a 3-0 defeat to Blackpool in the first leg of the playoff semi finals, they were beaten by the better, more mature side.  It was not for a lack of effort, nor a lack of belief. Oxford simply could not break down a team who set up to stifle them.  What will be of disappointment to Robinson was that Blackpool performed an equally accomplished 2-0 victory in this fixture back in March, playing in a remarkably similar way.  That Oxford were unable to learn from their opposition was a sign that perhaps this side is not ready for the step up.  Everything pointed towards Oxfo...

The first leg of the play-off semi final is on Tuesday night, and Oxford will need to find a way of breaking down the League's best team over the last 40 matches.  Since mid-August, Blackpool have picked up 76 points, conceding only 26 goals in the process, eight less than the next best defence and thirteen better than the next team.  Since the turn of the year, Blackpool have won 16 of their 28 matches.  How do Oxford, then, go about beating them?  Here's a few key factors the data suggests Oxford will need in order to progress to Wembley.  Score First  When playing a defence as good as Blackpool, it is even more important than ever to score the first goal.  Critchley's team have won 23 of the 30 matches where they have taken the lead, the third best win conversion rate in the division.  Blackpool have also only conceded 21 goals in the second half of matches in League One this season, the least of any team in the division, and it is indicative o...

Amid continued speculation over his future, Oxford fans are beginning to brace for life without Josh Ruffels next season. The full back has been gracing Grenoble Road for nearly eight years now but he has really stepped up in the last few seasons. His injury record is next to perfect, having missed only six League matches since the start of the 2018-19 season. So how do Oxford go about replacing him should he choose to leave this summer? Hopefully it won’t come to this, but we’ve drawn up a shortlist of five potential replacements for Ruffels using statistical profiling.  We’ve used their most recent season to create a 'stats radar' on each player showing their strengths and weaknesses based on how they rank for a particular action compared to other full backs in their respective leagues. For a little example, below is the statistical profile of Josh Ruffels.  As we can see, Josh Ruffels’ defensive stats are some of the best in League One. He tops the charts for ...

Tuesday was the first free midweek Oxford have had since mid-October. Finally, a chance to take a break. Not a chance. What unfolded whilst Oxford fans were nervously peering at their phones on the sofas was one of the most dramatic days in this EFL season. Intermingled between a 3-3 draw, 2-2 draw and 5-2 victory were four results which had a huge bearing on Oxford’s season. Lincoln and Blackpool all but cemented their top six status with wins, but the real drama happened elsewhere. Accrington squandered a 2-0 lead against Portsmouth, before Marquis scored a bicycle kick winner in the 91 st minute, only for him to complete his hattrick but at the wrong end, as his own goal drew Accrington level in the 95 th minute. Charlton also grabbed what they thought was a late winner against Crewe, only for their opponents to drew level for a second time with Owen Doyle’s 96 th minute equaliser. Oxford were in it, out of it, and then right back in it again in an evening full of...

Oxford eventually beat Plymouth to keep their playoff dream alive on Saturday, but it wasn’t without a scare early in the second half. The visitors dominated the 20-minute period after the interval, and deservedly got themselves back into the game via Nial Ennis’s 65 th minute equaliser. The goal brought Oxford back to life, and they quickly restored their lead through Taylor who would later make it comfortable with his second of the game and 17 th of the season, sending Oxford to 5 th in the table. The blip at the start of the second half, though, is more than that. Just four days earlier, Oxford had an even stronger chance to cement their position in the playoffs against relegation threatened AFC Wimbledon. With other results benefiting Oxford, they held a 1-0 lead at the hour mark before a remarkable capitulation following James Henry’s instinctive red card which saw the game turned on its head in the space of two minutes. The result was an opportunity missed and, tho...

Three victories in a row have propelled Oxford into the playoffs for the first time this season. Their victory over Gillingham has simultaneously taken out one competitor, and it now looks like only those in 10th and above still harvest any chance of making the top six. The question now becomes: Can Oxford maintain their position? We have looked at the form and fixtures of Oxford and their playoff rivals to see who is best positioned to finish in the top six. Key Below is a little example of how the information will be set up, and what key terminology means. Team (current league position) PPG from last Six Matches (Ranking in League One) – points per game from the last six matches PPG from last Ten Matches (Ranking in League One) – points per game from last ten matches PPG of Remaining Opposition – Remaining opposition’s points per game, adjusted for home and away fixtures. Fixture difficult difference – The difference in adjusted PPG of all the fixtures a team h...